yeah there's no way greece will lose at home to latvia anyway, i reckon. a draw is conceivable, at which point things get very tricky.Originally Posted by SuperDave
i think it means that it would be a straight shootout between greece and latvia on the final wednesday to see who can score more goals - latvia at home to moldova, or greece home to luxembourg, with the greeks having a goal start.
well, except for the fact that if there is a draw, israel join the party too, presumably after hammering moldova, with a substantial advantage (currently 2 up on the greeks)..... though they would need to beat switzerland away to qualify.
yeah i considered thatwould've mentioned it but for the switzerland away game - though at that point switzerland will have qualified so who knows.
ukraine could overhaul croatia to finish second if they beat england. a big ask and it won't make a difference to the seedings but i think i'd just about prefer to face them over croatia. similarly there's a (very) small chance france could finish ahead of serbia, who are strong, but i would still rather face them then the french.
on the flip side, if latvia win/draw in greece and portugal finish second we'd both our 4th seed spot and the chance to face greece...
Last edited by foureyes; 05/10/2009 at 2:19 PM.
That's the group that really matters.... bosnia and slovenia should make it and be beneath us, sweden might make it and hopefully won't overtake us, but the only way we'd have four teams beneath us would be if latvia made it.... which is a big ask. 6:30 kick off irish time, i believe.yeah i considered that
ukraine could overhaul croatia to finish second if they beat england. a big ask and it won't make a difference to the seedings but i think i'd just about prefer to face them over croatia. similarly there's a (very) small chance france could finish ahead of serbia, who are strong, but i would still rather face them then the french.
on the flip side, if latvia win/draw in greece and portugal finish second we'd both our 4th seed spot and the chance to face greece...
also, i wouldn't count bosnia just yet.... they almost certainly have to win in estonia..... 1 pt there means they need a point v spain, otherwise it would be turkey who can win their two games v belgium away and armenia at home.... which would throw a spanner in the works.
it's a pity norway only have ten points, cos they are also beneath us in the rankings, which is kind of irritating..... and unless france really **** this up, we can't hold any hope out for Austria, though stranger things have happened...
A draw for Latvia in Greece might be enough for Ireland, if Moldova got a win in Israel too. That would mean Moldova's results would count as 5th place team in group.
Latvia have taken 3 points against them and are playing Moldova in last game which would give them the chance to get 6 points. Greece have only got 4 points against Moldova.
An unlikely set of events but you never know!
Where moldova finish is unimportant.... whoever finishes second in that group will be the playoffs, what is important is whether they are seeded or not.... we need latvia to make it, not greece.... results v moldova or luxembourg have no bearing on that, all they will do is knock out norway as the second placed team with fewest points.... we would need greece to spectacularly **** up to finish beneath norway in the second place table for it to have any bearing on our seeding or otherwise..... it is almost certain norway will finish bottom of the group though. they need some highly improbable results and **** ups.... though if they made it, it would be good for us.
Unless it was us that dropped out!
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
They played the Shay Given quotes on Ian Dempsey this morning, fair play to him and Kilbane for saying what most people are thinking.
Nothing from Delaney about this change in the rules. Fair play to Shay for saying what needed to be said.
From another forum
Sums it up quite well. I've added the probable rankings for October in bold. They are calculated from Edgars site but based on these predicted results.Lads - I said it on here yesterday about us being one of the 'seeded' teams for the playoffs.
I had a proper look and it goes like this (the likeliest outcome) - FIFA ranking in brackets.
Group 1: Sweden (41)(39) or Portugal (17)(11). Sweden two points up and have Denmark away then Albania home. Portugal home to Hungary and Malta.
We need Sweden to come second.
Group 2: Greece (12)(21) or Latvia(58)(46). Level on points. Greece play Latvia on Saturday and then play Luxembourg while Latvia play Moldova.
We need Latvia to come second. Could come down to goal difference.
Group 3: Slovenia (54)(56) likely to come second. edit, Czechs (18)(14) good chance
Group 4: Russia (6)(8) or Germany (4)(6) will come second.
Group 5: Bosnia (46)(42) likely to come second.
Group 6: Croatia (9)(7) or Ukraine (25)(40) will come second.
Group 7: France (10)(10) likely to come second.
Group 8: Ireland (38)(28) likely to come second.
So, IF Latvia & Sweden come second that will leave them along with Bosnia and Slovenia as the four 'weakest' seeds.
So never mind Ireland vs. Italy or Montenegro - COME ON LATVIA / COME ON SWEDEN!
Now, better start working...
EDIT: Norway (43)(36) can 'technically' still qualify ahead of Sweden/Portugal but it's VERY unlikely so I won't bore you with the how.
If we reach the playoffs and so do Ukraine, we'll likely jump ahead of them in the rankings. So we want Latvia, Sweden and Ukraine to come second and join Slovenia and Bosnia. Leaving us 3rd seeds behind France, Russia/Germany. Unlikely, but possible.
Worst case scenario
Russia, Croatia, France, Portugal, Greece, Czech Rep, Ireland and Bosnia will be the playoff teams.
Last edited by Closed Account; 07/10/2009 at 11:28 AM.
As Ukraine's probable ranking is based on a probable result of losing to England, we might have to beat Italy to stay ahead of them in the FIFA rankings should they beat England.
Probably best to just focus on the game on hand and let the dust settle a bit more in the other groups
except croatia are much more likely to finish second.... still, if ukraine made it and dropped below us, it would be great not to have to rely on latvia....
all in all, there is some hope of finishing in top seeds, but not much.... we'll see after the weekend.
Unlikely yes, but there are different degrees of unlikely
Saturday games according to one Bookie,
Ukraine are 8/5 to win,
Ireland 9/4 to win,
Greece 1/3 to beat Latvia, 7/2 the draw.
we really need ukraine to win.... i had never thought it would make a difference, given how far they are ahead in the rankings at the minute, but there you go....Unlikely yes, but there are different degrees of unlikely
Saturday games according to one Bookie,
Ukraine are 8/5 to win,
Ireland 9/4 to win,
Greece 1/3 to beat Latvia, 7/2 the draw.
as an aside, being a top seed is all well and good, but most of the second seeds aren't that easy to play against either.... ukraine, sweden, slovenia, bosnia, latvia.... not to mention generally more difficult and expensive to get to than places like france portugal and germany..... i mean, the teams are not as good as say russia or germany, but greece could yet be in that top pot, and france ain't looking too hot right now..... i mean, i'd like to be in the top seeds and all, but it doesn't make our chances of qualifying significantly easier. easier, yes, but not by much.
I'm not too bothered about who'll we'll play and the permutations. Obviously being in the playoff is the first priority and it could work out any which way after that. We could be top seeds and get Ukraine or we could be second seeds and get Sweden or vice versa. There's no telling at the moment what would be better for us.
From today's Irish World:
Clearly FAI chief executive John Delaney knows something the rest of us don't as the Republic of Ireland prepare for the visit of World Champions Italy to Croke Park next Saturday. By Damian Dolan - 07/10/09
Down to business
In relaxed mood at the 25th Anniversary Dinner of the London branch of the Republic of Ireland Soccer Supporters Club at the Crown Moran Hotel, Cricklewood, just seven days ahead of Ireland’s World Cup fate being decided, not even FIFA’s moving of the seeding goalposts it seems can dent Delaney’s optimism.
Perhaps it’s the fact that with two games to go Ireland’s fate is very much in their own hands, or perhaps it’s the fact with a two leg play-off the most likely outcome for Ireland another Croke Park sell out in November will further swell the FAI coffers. Although it could well be down to the self satisfaction of having secured the services of Giovanni Trapattoni for another two years.
Either way, FIFA’s eleventh hour u-turn on seeding the play-offs can’t ruin Delaney’s mood with Ireland needing just two points from their remaining two matches against Italy and Montenegro to be sure of a play-off spot.
But with the likes of Germany, France and Portugal struggling to qualify, the lengths that FIFA are prepared to go to favour the ‘bigger’ nations has become painfully transparent. Having received an assurance a year ago that “most likely” there would be no seedings, Delaney was advised only a short few weeks ago that “most likely” there now would be.
Honest! I am not a secret Tim nor a closet Sham - I really am a Seagull.
As subtext to the ruling, FIFA have decided the following criteria that must be abided by the 2nd seeds of the 2nd place play offs.
- No 2nd seeds must have two players with the same coloured hair.
- In the interests on "Kick racism out of football", each 2nd seed team must field at least 6 different ethnic groups among their starting IX
- No player can be replaced by a player of the same ethnic origin
- The squad must have the ability to sing 4 different national anthems in 3 different languages
- The 2nd seeds must not appeal any of the referees decision or a result of 2-0 will be awarded to the 1st seeds for that leg.
- Should any 2nd seed player receive a yellow card, it will be deemed that the offending country cannot be trusted and as a result will be banned for all further competition for a minimum of 12 years
- 2nd seed player can be deemed to committed a yellow card offensive for spitting, sweating, falling, jumping, talking or pointing
- The 2nd seed manager must use the following words and/or phrases in his/her post match interview - "got what we deserved" - "better team won" - "fair result"
- FIFA reserve the right to replay any game should they feel that fairness has been compromised
Who is this guy, Trapper Tony?
im assuming the first 3 are in relation to france, germany and russia, being of ethnic diversity...very good.
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And I really love your knockers,I'm a labourer by day,
I **** up all me pay,Watching footy on TV,
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