2010 qualifying latest

[pineapple stu]

There'll always be big countries, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's staid and predictable.

You mention Ghana and the Ivory Coast as two of the big countries in Africa, for example. They qualified for the first time in 2006. Nigeria and Egypt are on the verge of missing out for the third and fifth successive time respectively. The countries who would qualify at their expense - Tunisia and Algeria - would in previous years have been in your list of the big five African countries, along with Morocco. That's just normal flux.

In asia, Japan's first World Cup was 2002, and 2006 was Australia's first since 1974. North Korea haven't been in since 1966. Honduras from Central America haven't been in since 1982. Chile in South America haven't been in since 1998.

[endabob1]

It's only since the expansion to 32 teams that Africa & indeed Asia have had anything like a fair representation at the WC.
Ghana's domestic league is one of the strongest in Africa; Ivory Coast I'll grant yo uare fiarly new to the big name list but they've been one of the best sides in Africa for the best part of a decade.
Maybe I'm wrong but I get fed up seeing the same old sides there time & time again. An interesting stat would be the number of different teams in the last 8 of the last 3 world cups. I suspect there would be a fair few repeat offenders

[pineapple stu]

Given African and - in particular - Asian nations' performances at recent World Cups, I'd have to disagree that they now have fair representation.

In the last 8 in the last three World Cups, you've had -

Argentina x 2
Brazil x 3
Croatia
Denmark
England x 2
France x 2
Germany x 3
Holland
Italy x 2
Portugal
Senegal
South Korea
Spain
Turkey
Ukraine
United States

16 countries in 24 spots, and only six repeat offenders. Not bad, I think. Go back to 1994 and you find Sweden, Romania and Bulgaria. In 1990, you had Ireland, Cameroon, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. I think that's quite a good mix of regulars and upstarts.

[endabob1]

Actually that's not a bad mix but really you have 8 spots and 6 repeats, 2 have been there all 3 times so I would say you can almost guarantee that half of the quarter finalists will come from those 6 teams.

To me it's becoming like the Premiership, Serie A, La Liga a handful of teams capable and they are pretty much set in stone.

I meant in terms of pure numbers as much as anything else, Africa have had a lot of success at the Olympics & to a lesser degree at World Cups (apart from the last word cup you have to go packed to the rigged West Germany v Austria game in 82 for the last World Cup where an African team failed to progress beyond the group stages). I expect Ghana & Ivory Coast to make a real impact next year and wouldn't be surprised to see an African Semi-Finalist.
The Asians progress is slightly stilted by the occasional battering, particularly evident when Japan/Korea hosted it meant you had much weaker Asian sides, China & the Saudi's bt Japan especially are no mugs.

[pineapple stu]

But you'll always have the big countries. Nothing wrong with that. And if half of the last 8 comes from the big 8 (say the six repeats plus Spain and Holland), then you've half of the last eight who are rotating underdogs. That's not bad at all. Really the only thing the World Cup has lacked is a surprise winner, or even a surprise finalist. The likes of Croatia, south Korea, Turkey, Sweden and Bulgaria have all reached the semis in recent years, but none have made the next step.

African nations do well in the Olympics in part because it's an underage tournament, and Africans have notoriously shady age records. And I think by saying that you half expect an African side to make the semis - which none has ever done - you're undermining your predictableness argument to a degree.

[endabob1]

To a degree.... but I think it'll be one of 2 Ivory Coast have a very good side imo & Ghana have that big nation knack of getting results when it counts.
Plus it's a home tournament Japan & Korea's performances in 2002 USA & Mexico in 1994 show that a home (in continent terms at least) tournament is hugely beneficial.

I think African sides do well in the Olympics because it's not taken as seriously by European Countries plus Africa has 3 slots & Europe 4 making it a whole lot easier for them to progress. How cynical of you to suggest dodgy birth certs

I still think the winners will be from the same batch which is the frustrating thing
France
Italy
Germany
Brazil
Argentina

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist and to 1966 to find a winner that wasn't one of those.

[superfrank]

I still think the winners will be from the same batch which is the frustrating thing
France
Italy
Germany
Brazil
Argentina

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist and to 1966 to find a winner that wasn't one of those.

Nope. Every final has had one of those five in them.

[Schumi]

Nope. Every final has had one of those five in them.

1978 is the last time there weren't two of them in the final.

[superfrank]

Well, endabob1 said:

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist

[Closed Account 2]

Paraguay are a very strong team, and having been their 2 years ago I can tell you they love their football with a passion and zeal unsurpassed in Latin America. Paraguay has suffered much especially in terms of relations with its neighbours. It had only thrown off the enslavement and subjugation of the Spanish Empire for around 50 years when it was invloved in the "War of Triple Alliance". Brazil, Uruguay (which Brazil had annexed) and Argentina saw it was developing economically faster them and so declared war. Before the war Paraguay had a population of 500,000 to 550,000 after the war it was around 200,000 with less than 30,000 of that figure being men. The Brazilians and their allies conducted a campaign of genocide in all but name. Paraguay also lost around 50,000 square miles (pretty much half its pre-war size) and the country was decimated. Less than 50 years later the Bolivans invaded the other side of Paraguay and attempted to capture the Chaco region. The Paraguyans fought back and in a bitter struggle (57,000 Paraguayans died) managed to keep the Bolivians at bay. I don't normally put too much creedance in socio-political backdrops fuelling football attitudes but it's easy to see why the Paraguay national team does so well at qualification, in the space of 3-4 generations 4 of the other 9 countries in Latin America* have tried to liquidate them as a nation.

*CONMEBOL nations, so not counting the Guyanas and Surinam