European Parliament Elections 2009

[pete]

Latest IT Poll.

Dublin
Gay Mitchell (FG) 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Lab) 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF) 9%
Joe Higgins (Soc) 9%
Deirdre De Búrca (Green) 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind) 5%
Eibhlín Byrne (FF) 2%
Caroline Simons (Lib) 2%

North West
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) 20%
Marian Harkin (Ind) 19%
Jim Higgins (FG) 17%
Joe O'Reilly (FG) 10%
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF) 9%
Declan Ganley (Lib) 9%

[BohsPartisan]

Latest IT Poll.

Dublin
Gay Mitchell (FG) 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Lab) 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF) 9%
Joe Higgins (Soc) 9%
Deirdre De Búrca (Green) 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind) 5%
Eibhlín Byrne (FF) 2%
Caroline Simons (Lib) 2%

So the combined poll of the Left anti-Lisbon campaign outpolls Libertas by 23% I think that is quite significant in showing that at least in Dublin, it is these people, rather than Ganley's mob who had the ear of the electorate on the referendum. Great stuff for Joe here. Before the last Euro election he polled 2.5% and ended up with 5%. A small increase and doing well out of the transfers from Patricial McKenna and perhaps De Burca could see him through.

[Aberdonian Stu]

I was discussing the Irish Times poll result yesterday with a couple of mates and Higgins may have found the perfect storm.

He always gets a respectable, if not necessarily competitive, number of votes from his core support.

Now throw into the mix that a whole heap of people don't want to vote FF this election but that there's always a reasonably large chunck of the same voter base that dislike SF and suddenly there's a whole lot of people looking for someone else to fill that gap.

A lot of people like that he's very up front about where he stands. I don't agree with his views but I've always had time for his direct and upfront manner. I still won't be voting for him I reckon he'll win over quite a few people that wouldn't normally consider him high up the ballot.

Interesting to note that combined De Burca and McKenna have 11 percent. Now I would expect to not wholly translate had just one candidate run because there are personality and support base issues but if it had translated to even 9 percent suddenly a Green would be in the hunt with transfers etc. It's a pity, albeit in no way a surprise, they couldn't have come to some kind of agreement as it would make matters a lot more interesting this day week (correct me if I'm wrong but I believe all of Europe does its counting Sunday).

[Dodge]

I'd imagine tht McKenna's vote would affect Higgin's too. I know a couple of people voting for McKenna solely because she walked away from the FF/green coalition (in their eyes anyway). She'll definitely pick up her share of "protest" votes

[bennocelt]

knob jockey gallagher to top poll in, man - have people no shame -can we annex donegal off to the brits please

[Bald Student]

I'm voting on an anyone but Mary Lou basis. I was originally planning to vote for Eoin Ryan but I'm swapping to Higgins now. I think he has a good chance. He'll pick up most of McKenna's transfers. That could put him ahead of Mary Lou and he'll pick up most of her votes too if it does.

[pete]

I'd imagine tht McKenna's vote would affect Higgin's too. I know a couple of people voting for McKenna solely because she walked away from the FF/green coalition (in their eyes anyway). She'll definitely pick up her share of "protest" votes

Was discussing this last week & she is most definitely a protest candidate. When the Greens were in government she couldn't get a protest vote so had to leave.

Higgins has a chance for sure as he will surely pick up transfers across the spectrum. I wouldn't share his policies but I would see him as honest so he will get something down the list. The threat of Mary Lou might get Eoin Ryan more transfers.

Apparently 1st count cannot be released until 9pm next Sunday. Its a euro-wide thing.

[bennocelt]

I'm voting on an anyone but Mary Lou basis. I was originally planning to vote for Eoin Ryan but I'm swapping to Higgins now. I think he has a good chance. He'll pick up most of McKenna's transfers. That could put him ahead of Mary Lou and he'll pick up most of her votes too if it does.

a lot of bitterness there - jesus

to me - a vote for FF shows that one is an A1 moron

[Macy]

When the Greens were in government she couldn't get a protest vote so had to leave.

In fairness to her, she was on record as being opposed to entering Government, opposed the all new stance on an EU referendum, and stood and lost for the party leadership. Only the timing was really suspect about her decision to leave. Hopefully De Burca will be dead and buried (incinerated?) politically, regardless.

The threat of Mary Lou might get Eoin Ryan more transfers.

Interesting FG spin doctors undemonising SF over the weekend (whilst giving Kenny and FG the deniability). Must have been aimed at getting some FG transfers to really go ABFF, even if that means SF.

[pete]

Interesting FG spin doctors undemonising SF over the weekend (whilst giving Kenny and FG the deniability). Must have been aimed at getting some FG transfers to really go ABFF, even if that means SF.

Its more of a moral quandry than anything else.

If Eoin Ryan holds onto his seat FF will talk that up saying they didn't lose any of their 4 seats. On the otherhand FG likely to use 1 of their 5 seats. If Ryan loses his seat a Shinner could get in. Hard to know which is the lesser of two evils.

[Aberdonian Stu]

Interesting FG spin doctors undemonising SF over the weekend (whilst giving Kenny and FG the deniability). Must have been aimed at getting some FG transfers to really go ABFF, even if that means SF.

Heard that alright but it doesn't appear to be a unified front on that one. Alan Shatter was on The Week in Politics and seemed to not be fond of the idea.

[Macy]

Hard to know which is the lesser of two evils.

Ryan losing could bring down the Government - it's obvious where the ABFF vote should go. Hopefully it'll be Higgins rather than Mary Lou anyway that pips him (whatever about ideology, people respect Higgins so he could well be transfer friendly).

[John83]

I'm voting on an anyone but Mary Lou basis. I was originally planning to vote for Eoin Ryan but I'm swapping to Higgins now. I think he has a good chance. He'll pick up most of McKenna's transfers. That could put him ahead of Mary Lou and he'll pick up most of her votes too if it does.

I've been thinking the same actually. Quite pleased that Higgins is saving me the irritation of having to vote FF.

a lot of bitterness there - jesus

to me - a vote for FF shows that one is an A1 moron

Some people feel the same about a vote for Sinn Féin.

Regardless, the situation is that De Rossa and Mitchell will get two of the Dublin seats, and so anyone voting tactically has to choose between Ryan, McDonald, Higgins, De Burca and McKenna, (oh, and Simmons, if you like) and weigh up the options for second and lower preferences.

[bennocelt]

I've been thinking the same actually. Quite pleased that Higgins is saving me the irritation of having to vote FF.


Some people feel the same about a vote for Sinn Féin.

Regardless, the situation is that De Rossa and Mitchell will get two of the Dublin seats, and so anyone voting tactically has to choose between Ryan, McDonald, Higgins, De Burca and McKenna, (oh, and Simmons, if you like) and weigh up the options for second and lower preferences.

whatever your opinions on SF - saying that you would vote for FF so Sf wont get in is a joke
FF = a disgrace to this country
And i am amazed that they can still get 20% or so of the vite, and have poll toppers in Crowley and Gallagher - this country is a joke

Either way it would be great if Higgins gets it - and you know he just might.
But if SF get it I wont be losing any sleep

[pete]

whatever your opinions on SF - saying that you would vote for FF so Sf wont get in is a joke
FF = a disgrace to this country
And i am amazed that they can still get 20% or so of the vite, and have poll toppers in Crowley and Gallagher - this country is a joke

It is a European election. MEPs have limited scope & many people would not want a Shinner representing us in the EU Parliament. We could elect every FF candidate to Europe & it won't have any impact on the Dail.

[Bald Student]

whatever your opinions on SF - saying that you would vote for FF so Sf wont get in is a joke
FF = a disgrace to this country
And I am amazed that they can still get 20% or so of the vote, and have poll toppers in Crowley and Gallagher - this country is a joke

Either way it would be great if Higgins gets it - and you know he just might.
But if SF get it I wont be losing any sleep

You have to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate. I'm opposed to Fianna Fáil's economic policy but I'm in favour of their not blowing people up policy.

[Angus]

You have to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate. I'm opposed to Fianna Fáil's economic policy but I'm in favour of their not blowing people up policy.

A cynical man might say one of the following things:

FF stood idly by while the Americans used Ireland as a base to facilitate bombing in the middle east
Key FF members were seriously implicated in a gun and bomb running scandal in the 1970's
FF exist as a result of a campaign of violence in the 1920's

None of these things make them terrorists or sympathisers and clearly FF are not the IRA, but we all need to note the not too recent past history.

Mary Lou appeals because of her clarity, coherence and efforts during the Lisbon campaign - she was extremely articulate and engaged. I have no time for SF normally - policies completely bonkers but she deserves credit for that effort

[holidaysong]

FF are moving to the more pro-European ALDE grouping in the European Parliament after this election. This will have a lot to do with how I'll vote, as I'll only be giving preferences to candidates who belong to pro-Lisbon parties and those in the more pro-European groupings in the EP.

However, the local elections will be a different matter altogether...

[Dodge]

FF are moving to the more pro-European ALDE grouping in the European Parliament after this election. This will have a lot to do with how I'll vote, as I'll only be giving preferences to candidates who belong to pro-Lisbon parties and those in the more pro-European groupings in the EP.

However, the local elections will be a different matter altogether...

FG and Labour already in very pro european groupings

[holidaysong]

FG and Labour already in very pro european groupings

Yeah I know that. I'd be wasting my vote by just giving preferences to de Rossa and Mitchell though.. So for me it's going to have to be Ryan for the third Dublin seat.