Betting strategies

[brianw82]

A few posts on the 2nd page of the LOI round 10 thread got me thinking about the strategies people use for betting. People here tend to spread their money around 3 or 4 bets, like our good friend Raheny Red:

Galway United v St Patrick's Athletic Both Teams To Score Yes @ 10/11 - I think this could be an open game and the possibility of both scoring could be a real threat.

Sporting Fingal v Limerick Half-Time/Full-Time Sporting Fingal / Sporting Fingal @ 10/11 - Fingal are flying along now and should win this one with ease. Full time -V- Part time surely the double result will be on the cards.

Finn Harps v Shelbourne No Finn Harps Goalscorer @ 6/5 - although Shels will have a makeshift defence tonight it’s hard to see Harps scoring tonight. They have scored 8 so far this season, 5 of them coming from Gethins who happens to be suspended tonight. Shels have played 9 games in all competitions so far, they’ve kept clean sheets in 6 of those. Harps not scoring looks good.

Drogheda United v Derry City To Win to Nil Derry City @ 7/5 - Derry should bounce back tonight. Drogheda have been hard to break down this season but they have a few players missing tonight. Drogs can barely score this season and they couldn’t score last week against Sligo even when they had 2 men sent off.

Cork City v Sligo Rovers To Score in Both Halves Cork City @ 17/10 - the value on a Cork win has dried up so we had to look for an alternative and this could be the one. Cork are moving along nicely now. Sligo travel down with a depleted squad with over 6 players missing. Cork scoring in both halves in a real possibility.

This is just a ‘fun’ acc @ 51/1 but I’m very confident I’ll get at least 3 up. 0.25 pts (Powers)

Also did an early treble last week with Hills:

Shels @ 8/11
Fingal HT?FT @ 8/11
Cork @ 8/15

0.5 pts @ 7/2 (Hills)

Finn Harps -V- Shelbourne

Shelbourne travel to the North-West with a mini defensive crisis with up to 3 decent defenders missing. However, Keely should be able to rejig the defence with minimal fuss. Harps will be missing their top scorer so they will find it hard to break down Shels’ back 4 either way. The away side should have enough in midfield and up front to destroy the dismal Donegal side, they are the only side to drop points to Kildare so far. Ballybofey would usually be a daunting place to visit in the hope of gaining 3 points but this won’t be the case tonight. The Finn Harps fans are fearful of a whipping tonight and that makes me even more confident. Rumours bouncing about that the Harps manager is sueing a loyal supporter and the fans have been calling for his head for quite some time now. Surely this will affect the players on the pitch also. There’s a real possibility that Shels could run riot tonight with a 3 or 4 nil scoreline. However, just medium stakes for me tonight due to Shels defence, otherwise it would be a max bet.

Backing Shels @ 1.9 (Betdaq) - 2pts.

or KR's post:

Pats let me down other night in accum. had Bray 6-1, derry, bohs and shels. And pats 17-10.

To me, sticking a euro or 2 on a 'fun' 50-1 shot isn't much harm. You're not really expecting it to come off, it's almost like buying a lottery ticket.

A method I don't really understand is that of KR's post. If you're sure of a team like Bray winning at 6-1, why would you need to mess that up by putting a fragile team like Pats in there at 17-10? Surely that's just being greedy? Not to mention the increased statistical improbability of winning by adding more teams. After all, the statistical probability of your 4-match accy actually coming off is only 1.18%! Whereas your 6-1 bet on Bray has a 33% chance, and is a true value bet.

Speaking personally, I think gambling is better and (potentially!) more profitable if you stick all your eggs in one basket, as there's less chance of a dead cert like Fingal letting you down. Like the way Raheny used to do it in the betting league thread.

Opinions?

[eL Bettor]

I make a few quid from betting on soccer and I very rarely place anything other than singles. Some advice that I would give:

If you feel strong enough about the outcome of a game (at certain odds of course) to place a bet on it, then why would you double it up with something else and have nothing if only one of them wins. This is true, even if you felt you had good reasoning to place the 2nd bet, in my opinion. And a good example given above re Bray @ 6/1!!

Also, when placing accas, it's very rare that you'll be getting the best odds on all teams compared to the prices in other bookies. What people often don't realise is that "the true odds" of your 10/1 or 20/1 acca (e.g. based on betfair prices/a 100% book) would be often well over twice that.

[Sheridan]

Top three strategies for betting:

3: Be rich to begin with.
2: Be very lucky.
1: Don't do it.

[eL Bettor]

Top three strategies for betting:

3: Be rich to begin with.
2: Be very lucky.
1: Don't do it.

typical attitude of someone who things betting is for mugs.

[JC_GUFC]

Also, when placing accas, it's very rare that you'll be getting the best odds on all teams compared to the prices in other bookies.

That's the key thing about putting on accums. It's very rare you get a "fair" price about all the teams you're betting on.

If you wouldn't back the team in a single you shouldn't back them in an accum.

That said it really depends what you're betting for. If you're betting small stakes for a bit of interest then obviously backing a 10/1 accum is more worthwhile than having a "safe" fiver on Bohs at 2/5.

If you're betting larger stakes with the intention of making a profit from betting then you should generally only be backing singles.

[Mr A]

I only really bet for the laugh and the challenge of trying to stay ahead. Often it's just a case of sticking a fiver on first goalscorer in a match that's on TV or whatever.

I don't really do accumulators much but do the odd Yankee or Lucky 15 or the like. These can work well if there's a bunch of events were you feel the outsider has a better chance than the odds offered and to give a bit of interest in a bunch of matches. My record with those is pretty terrible though.. so maybe better to stick to singles.

[Dodge]

JC hit the nail on the head. There are different types of gambler. Those who bet 5-20 euroes a week on accumulators and first goal scorer type bets. Pretty rounded individuals with a bit of spare cash looking for an edge watching sport.

Then you have people who pick 1/2 bets a week and back them heavily convinced that the can predict the outcome. These people love Man Utd and Barcelona at home and generally end up in the poorhouse when they stake their wages on a game that finishes 0-0 with barca hitting the bar 6 times.

Then there's the serious gambler who trawls the web looking for incorrect prices and sticks rigidly to his precisely crafted staking plan. These geeks generally do OK, but at a cost to their social and family life.

I can be all 3 on the same day

[MariborKev]

My strategy? Act the bookie.

I rarely bet, mostly lay events and then hedge out all the time.