Budget: April 2009

[pete]

Only a week away. Every economist with any opinion given a platform by the media.

Any predictions?

I don't think we will see much current spending cuts & will mainly be capital. Also looks like many taxes might be delayed until next year as can't be implemented mid-calendar. I guess more income "levies" on the way?

[mypost]

Thread should be merged with the Financial Crisis thread.

Income taxes are certain to be raised. Those on JA/JB will be praying that it escapes the axe, but it will probably be hit. VAT will rise.

The airport tax could be raised. The reliables will be hit of course. And text messages could be hit too.

According to indications so far, none of the proposals put forward by the opposition will be acted upon, and it will be the same tax, tax, tax FF go it alone policy that we have seen up until now, which will see even less consumer spending, more job losses, and deepening the recession.

[OneRedArmy]

Thread should be merged with the Financial Crisis thread.

Disagree, that covers the global meltdown of financial institutions.

Agree that direct taxes will go up, but VAT really shouldn't go up. Given the numbers going to the North it could end up reducing revenue.

My main worry is that FF still haven't grasped how much of the tax base was property driven and is gone for the forseeable future.

They managed to get through the last budget with almost no stimulation measures (the Greens puny renewable energy fund aside) I hope they don't make the same mistake again. Not confident though.

JA/JB should be cut by at least 5% to bring it in line with the price index.

[pete]

Social Welfare payments could be cut by X% across a the board.
VAT won't increase.
VRT won't increase.
Excise on drink, cigarettes, fuel will all increase.
PRSI ceiling removed.
Probably won't be a change in pension relief this time.
I think all those "stealth tax" will have a few quid added on top e.g. A&E hospital charges etc...

Don't think the government knows what it is doing yet otherwise it would be leaking info to test the waters.

[Battery Rover]

VAT rate will drop a couple of per cent to try and get people to shop south instead of up north

Levy on everyone will be increased by whatever per cent the VAT is dropped by. Guaranteed way of getting the income doing this.

Extra levy on people who own second, third houses etc.

Excise on alcohol to be reduced to try and stop cross border trade. We see Bulmers and Guinness struggling already with this.

A new 10% tax rate on minimum wage and social welfare to drop by €10 a week as well so it doesnt leave people better off not working.

Increase in tax rates by at least 3% and possible a new 50% plus rate for the high earners.

Excise on fuel and cigarettes might not change as it would lead to people buying across the border

Tax relief on pensions to be scrapped along with bin charges, health insurance, and anything else you can think of

Cull of 10% throughout all departments. Could be achieved by voluntary redundancies or by offering earlier retirement to people who have x amount of years done. These would probably be the highest earners so would save money long term as the newer employees wages could be capped by changing the wage increase structure. Maybe the introduction of a stay at home allowance.

Minimum wage to be reduces to €8

And the sly one a €20 increase on debit / credit cards. Can you actually refuse a debit card from a bank now?

On the tax hikes though I don't think they will come onboard until after the review of the tax system which is due in November I think or am I dreaming

[Macy]

It'll be levies rather than tax hikes for this year, with a worthless promise it'll be put on the tax rates in the December budget (2 or 3 budgets down the line the way things are going).

They'll close some of the construction related tax shelters, 10 years too late, now that the tent goers aren't using them anyway.

PRSI ceiling will go.

Tax relief on pensions only at standard rate.

I don't think they have the balls to touch social welfare, even if there probably is a case.

If they want to reduce public sector numbers, they should introduce Voluntary Early Retirement/ Voluntary Redundancy. Any compulsory redundancies will only hit relatively new starters, not the people they'd want to target.

[KevB76]

Can you actually refuse a debit card from a bank now?

Yes you can.

[mypost]

Disagree, that covers the global meltdown of financial institutions.

JA/JB should be cut by at least 5% to bring it in line with the price index.

The reason we're having a budget, is because of the financial crisis.

The vast majority of those getting €200 per week are struggling to get by already, and will struggle more on €190 per week, from presumably May.

The timing of the Budget is very suspect. Right before the Easter break, in order to avoid hard questions again.

[OneRedArmy]

The reason we're having a budget, is because of the financial crisis.

The vast majority of those getting €200 per week are struggling to get by already, and will struggle more on €190 per week, from presumably May.

The timing of the Budget is very suspect. Right before the Easter break, in order to avoid hard questions again.

The reason we're having a budget is because government spending is too high in relation to tax revenue.

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Unless we move to a more progressive system that favours the short-term unemployed, there needs to remain an incentive to work.

[monutdfc]

Public Sector retirement lump sums will be taxed at 17.5-20%; it will be announced in the budget but won't take effect for several months. The hope is that senior people approaching retirement age will retire early, there'll be no upwards promotion to replace them and they'll save a lot of money that way. That's my prediction.

[mypost]

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Unless we move to a more progressive system that favours the short-term unemployed, there needs to remain an incentive to work.

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.

[OneRedArmy]

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.

As I matter of interest I was on it, a long time ago, after I finished college and was looking for a job.

You seem to have forgotten that you get significant other benefits if you have family commitments?

I know quite a few business people who over a period of years were told that their fulltime openings were "unattractive to the unemployed as they would lose their benefits", despite paying above minimum wage.

[KevB76]

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Sadly thats the same view held by the government, people who have no real concept of the meaning of the term "struggle" as its not something they have any experience of.

[OneRedArmy]

Sadly thats the same view held by the government, people who have no real concept of the meaning of the term "struggle" as its not something they have any experience of.

Read my post above.

What exactly should the state's obligation be?

[Lim till i die]

A new 10% tax rate on minimum wage and social welfare to drop by €10 a week as well so it doesnt leave people better off not working.

Minimum wage to be reduces to €8

Forgiveness as I'm having a sloow day but wouldn't this mean:

Dole falls to 194.30

40 hours a week @ 8 quid an hour = 320

Taxed @ 10 percent would = 288

5 Days a week for 93.70??

[mypost]

You seem to have forgotten that you get significant other benefits if you have family commitments?

I know quite a few business people who over a period of years were told that their fulltime openings were "unattractive to the unemployed as they would lose their benefits", despite paying above minimum wage.

You'll always get rogue claimants. There is 11% of the working population on the dole. 95% of those want to work.

There are other benefits if you have family commitments, but the reason they get them, is because the state recognises that they can't live on JA/JB alone.

[bennocelt]

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.

my english mates had a right old laugh when i mentioned how much the dole is in ireland - its a joke - and yes i was on it a few times before

its not only that , its the rent allowance, couples living together drawing it as singles, disability allowance, even the old age pension is too much, etc etc

Think im talking rubbish? i know loads of people that are scamming the social
Its a kick in the balls when the government talks about raising taxes - its hard for working married couples.

[pete]

Compared to the minimum wage the dole is sufficient. With a large family (and welfare that brings) minimum wage position would not be attractive.

Taken with savings and/or dedundency is ok. Certainly no case to increase.

[micls]

There are other benefits if you have family commitments, but the reason they get them, is because the state recognises that they can't live on JA/JB alone.

Exactly....and they're not asked to.

You said you could only scrape by if you didnt have family commitments. If you do have family commitments then there are other welfare options open to you.

If the cost of living is coming down then it makes sense that welfare does likewise, that said I can't see it happening.

JA/JB is supposed to be basic, the just about get by on it so that there arent people tempted in times like these to give up working and just draw the dole. Wages are coming down, a 10% wage decrease factored alongside childcare costs while working etc and 200euro a week can look tempting to someone now on minimum wage, especially if minimum wage is dropped in the budget.

If you're lucky enough to have a 4 day a week job atm on minimum wage you're only coming out with 276.80. If youve young kids and need childcare then its basicaly not worth youre while to work.

Similarly if minimum wage drops(as is being rumoured) to even 8.20 then even a 5 day week will only get you 328euro. Again childcare cost would offset this very quickly.

Im not saying for certain JA/JB should be cut, Im just saying it should be looked at relative to all the other factors. I dont have enough information to decide one way or another

[mypost]

If the cost of living is coming down then it makes sense that welfare does likewise, that said I can't see it happening.

Im not saying for certain JA/JB should be cut, Im just saying it should be looked at relative to all the other factors. I dont have enough information to decide one way or another

Food and drink has gone up and will go up again next week, transport costs have gone up, rents have remained the same. Wages have come down, that's if you have a wage at all.

While there hasn't been a high rise in inflation, the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut. When you're on €200, every Euro counts.

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.