Budget: April 2009

[OneRedArmy]

Maybe upside is the wrong term, but they're taking the risk whilst still giving investors potential return, which imo is very wrong.

Can continue this in financial crisis thread, but from what I've seen, even if the Govt pays an average of 80c in the euro (big overpayment IMO) this would effectively wipe bank shareholders out (and correctly so) as Govt shareholding would own 80% plus of BoI and AIB. Plus there is provision for a levy on future profits if NAMA ends up loss-making.

[monutdfc]

I've been thinking a lot about this and at this stage I agree with ORA on this one. But with everything this government has done regarding the banks the devil is in the detail.
The good thing about this NAMA is that it takes the workout of the bad loans out of the hands of the bankers that granted the loans in the first place. This is very important. Ideally they will employ a team of workout experts for this purpose - but I have no faith that they will. I am also scared of political interference in NAMA's work. Also, I really hope that Anglos loans are put in there (wouldn't surprise me if they are not.)

Whatever discount they pay it looks like it will probably bankrupt the banks (I've not seen the exact numbers of loans per bank versus available capital, but a back of the envelope calculation tells me it will) so they might end up being "nationalised" anyway (inverted commas used because there seems to be some idealogical problem with nationalisation, so they'll come up with another fudge); that being so, it shouldn't matter if they overpay or underpay as the taxpayer will lose on NAMA and gain through the nationalised bank, or vice versa (although that depends on what fudge they come up with - I'd prefer gain through NAMA than gain through a 'nationalised' bank; and I'm pretty certain they overpay).

[Macy]

On a lighter note, I've seen it suggested that Ahern should be brought back to manage the NAMA, seeing he's so good at managing assets without a bank.

[mypost]

still the social welfare hasnt been even touched - sure thats a joke

It's neither a joke, nor true.

[OneRedArmy]

It's neither a joke, nor true.

Christmas bonus taken away. Stands to reason as it'll be a tight Christmas for the majority of those in employment.

Hopefully the Commission on Taxation can come up with some real proposals to bring out tax base more in line with European averages. Which means bringing more people into the tax net.

[Longfordian]

You have to be on the dole for something like a year before you'd get the Christmas bonus anyway so a lot of people who've signed on in the past few months wouldn't be affected by this really. You can't lose something you didn't have.

[mypost]

Christmas bonus taken away. Stands to reason as it'll be a tight Christmas for the majority of those in employment.

It's not just the Christmas bonus either.

It'll be a tight Christmas for those working, but they're better able to deal with deflation than those relying on the state for a living.

The perception that dole receipients are a bunch of feckless, useless scroungers has to change in the current climate, where 1,000 jobs are been lost a day, including highly skilled workers at the likes of SR Technics, who can and want to contribute to the nation's recovery, but can't at the moment.

[NeilMcD]

A lot of this comes down to that it is worse to have money in your pocket and have it taken away then never have it all. People get used to money coming in and then when they lose it they find it hard to adjust. That is where the government in my view have messed up as they put too much money into peoples pocket over the last 10 years and now they are having to get loads of it back. In this case it is not best to have loved rather than never have loved at all.

[OneRedArmy]

It'll be a tight Christmas for those working, but they're better able to deal with deflation than those relying on the state for a living.

For the reasons outlined by Neil I don't think this is true.

People enter into financial commitments based on their income which are almost impossible to change in the short-term.

The long-term unemployed are certainly better able to cope with this budget than either the newly unemployed or the average worker/family, precisely because of the non-existant change in the short-term.

[Macy]

It'll be a tight Christmas for those working, but they're better able to deal with deflation than those relying on the state for a living.

I don't see why deflation would be any easier to cope with if you're working. If you're working your money is down, whereas social welfare is the same. I still don't think there's deflation on day to day spending though either way.

[pete]

A lot of this comes down to that it is worse to have money in your pocket and have it taken away then never have it all. People get used to money coming in and then when they lose it they find it hard to adjust. That is where the government in my view have messed up as they put too much money into peoples pocket over the last 10 years and now they are having to get loads of it back. In this case it is not best to have loved rather than never have loved at all.

True. Once you give something it is very difficult to take it back e.g. medical card for pensioners, lower PAYE taxes, public sector state pensions.

Surprising it took them so long to come up with this budget given there is no imagination. PAYE income "levy" was 80% of the budget as all other measures put together don't bring in any money worth talking about.

Cowan continually talks about hard decisions to be made yet he keeps shying away from those decisions. FF have proven more concerned about summer elections than economic recovery.

I'll move bank posts back into Financial thread when I get time.

[bennocelt]

It's neither a joke, nor true.

IMHO the social welfare is way to much - as I said before compared to what people get in the UK (about 60 pounds or so) and in other countries its a joke.

The government should be trying to encourage people to work and should cut the social welfare and a good few of the other benefits
1/3 of the government spending is now within social welfare

Please tell me how the hell 200 is too little? Poverty? - ha, give me a break

[mypost]

The government should be trying to encourage people to work and should cut the social welfare and a good few of the other benefits

There are no jobs to encourage the unemployed to work. Ireland Inc. is shut. 5-6,000 people are losing their jobs EVERY week. Where do you suggest hiring these people??

England?? Recession. Europe?? Recession. America?? Recession. Australia?? Recession.

Please tell me how the hell 200 is too little? Poverty? - ha, give me a break

Please outline an individual's circumstances where €200 is too much?

There's hundreds of thousands of unemployed in this country who would love a break too.

[OneRedArmy]

Please outline an individual's circumstances where €200 is too much?

someone who has been unemployed for more than 18 months. Anyone who was long-term unemployed between mid-90s and 2007, frankly, didn't really want a job.

I would agree it's a different ballgame now. There aren't many jobs.

[bennocelt]

There are no jobs to encourage the unemployed to work. Ireland Inc. is shut. 5-6,000 people are losing their jobs EVERY week. Where do you suggest hiring these people??

England?? Recession. Europe?? Recession. America?? Recession. Australia?? Recession.



Please outline an individual's circumstances where €200 is too much?

There's hundreds of thousands of unemployed in this country who would love a break too.

yeah but spending too much of the country's budget on social welfare is not going to work either - sure lets bankrupt the country

either way the EU or the IMF will reduce it in the future if the FF clowns wont

200 a week!!!!!!! 800 a month, with rent paid, on top of children's allowance, amongst other things

funny how the bars are always full just after the social!!!!!!

or tell me why they are flocking over the border to draw the dole?
How so - its so terrible this social welfare?

[Block G Raptor]

200 a week!!!!!!! 800 a month, with rent paid, on top of children's allowance, amongst other things

I'm single but have 2 children. I have to give my ex(who works as does her husband) 60 euro a week in maintanance for my daughter but am not entitled to claim social welfare for her nor do I get children's allowance so thats 60 out of my Dole gone to someone who is in a 2 job household. when I was working I was only too happy to pay my way but now that I'm unemployed i'm still expected to keep up the payments how is this fair

[OneRedArmy]

I'm single but have 2 children. I have to give my ex(who works as does her husband) 60 euro a week in maintanance for my daughter but am not entitled to claim social welfare for her nor do I get children's allowance so thats 60 out of my Dole gone to someone who is in a 2 job household. when I was working I was only too happy to pay my way but now that I'm unemployed i'm still expected to keep up the payments how is this fair

Its not fair, but what's not fair is your maintenance agreement (because of a ridiculously one-sided system, but that's another issue altogether). The problem isn't with welfare.

While we're at it, what's fairness got to do with anything? The budget was generally decidedly unfair!

[mypost]

yeah but spending too much of the country's budget on social welfare is not going to work either - sure lets bankrupt the country

You read, hear, and see the news I take it. If so, you will hear of every day where factories, shops and restaurants closing down, along with several other businesses in all sectors. Then there's businesses upping sticks and going to Eastern Europe and India. It's at a rate of 6k a week. If the government can't find work for them, (and it can't), they're entitled to claim social welfare.

There's no bigger leveller than the dole. Whether you're a 20-year old apprentice, or a 55-year old qualified physician, whether you're a single man or have 5 kids, you're entitled to the same €200 payment as everyone else. And try to support yourself on that amount. €200 doesn't get you very far on the dole if you have commitments, you need other benefits to merely survive. And you have to endure sitting for months on end having other companies doors shut in your face. There are thousands of applicants for every job going.

either way the EU or the IMF will reduce it in the future if the FF clowns wont

How many other Eurozone countries have the IMF bailed out yet?? None, and won't be in the foreseeable future. .

tell me why they are flocking over the border to draw the dole?

Evidence??

Given the strict location criteria, I don't see that happening.

[pete]

The minimum wage should have been cut as it is ridiculously high compared to other EU countries. High minimum wage level feeds into the cost of everything in this country. Any one above the new minimum wage would then pay income tax.

[Dodge]

The minimum wage should have been cut as it is ridiculously high compared to other EU countries. High minimum wage level feeds into the cost of everything in this country. Any one above the new minimum wage would then pay income tax.

What came first, high prices, or a high minimum wage? I'd guess it was the chicken, but I'm no expert on fowl