Budget: April 2009

[pete]

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.

Apparently it is very difficult to do that mid-year with TFA & such so expect levy to increase.

3.7bn deficit up to March

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan tonight admitted the Government¿s fiscal position was "unsustainable" after Exchequer figures showed the deficit in public finances ballooned to €3.7 billion in the first quarter, a tenfold increase on the same period last year.

The Exchequer returns for March show the amount of tax collected by the Government in the first three months of the year is down 23 per cent or €2.6 billion on that collected in the same period last year.

The figures also showed spending was up 6 per cent or €680 million compared to last year due to the increased social welfare payments from the rising numbers of unemployed.

The data shows an Exchequer deficit of €3.7 billion was recorded in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a deficit of €354 million last year.

I am sure those numbers will mean any plans put in place up to now will be scrapped so will start the budget from scratch.

[dahamsta]

The solution should be to create jobs.

+1. New Deal economics works, we have proof of it via FDR and we'll have further proof of it via Obama.

[pete]

PR Campaign begins...

The Government will deliver an emergency budget next week that will be “fair, but very, very firm”, Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey said this morning.

Mr Dempsey said the budget, to be presented to the Dáil by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan next Tuesday, was in the final stages of preparation. The “broad scope” of expenditure cuts and borrowing requirements has been decided.

He said the budget will be based on Department of Finance figures published yesterday showing the Exchequer income will be about €34 billion for 2009.

Mr Lenihan was “looking at” the cost of social welfare, which accounts for €22 billion each year. “Every area of public expenditure has to be scrutinised and will be scrutinised over the next two or three years. Nothing is ruled out at this stage.”

Social Welfare now costs 2/3 of all government Revenue.

I suppose they might tax social welfare payments like childrens allowance which would make sense. I think the days of flat payments for all that takes no account income is over.

[mypost]

“Every area of public expenditure has to be scrutinised and will be scrutinised over the next two or three years. Nothing is ruled out at this stage.”

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.

[OneRedArmy]

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.

Give over.

Deflation is real, regardless of your incorrect statements above claiming prices are going up.

A 5% cut in social wefare will leave the recipient, on average, exactly were they were previously.

[mypost]

Give over.

Deflation is real, regardless of your incorrect statements above claiming prices are going up.

.....

the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut.

[bennocelt]

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.

nah dont think so
prices are coming down everywhere - food, and rent, etc

[Macy]

Apparently it is very difficult to do that mid-year with TFA & such so expect levy to increase.

I think Gilmore suggested it might have to be via a Levy this year, then become a Tax Rate next.

I suppose they might tax social welfare payments like childrens allowance which would make sense. I think the days of flat payments for all that takes no account income is over.

For a lot of middle income people it is an important factor in their budgets, expecially if they are paying childcare. If it is to be taxed, which I wouldn't agree with, the threshold should be be at a very high level rather than just coming in to the normal bands. They should possibly look at scrapping the early childcare supplement and then give it as a tax credit instead for those actually paying for childcare. It'd still be a drop in the ocean compared to the cost of childcare, but at least it'd be targeted.

prices are coming down everywhere - food, and rent, etc

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages, up 0.8 for the year to Feb 09 according to CSO. Marginally down for in the monthly and 3 monthly figures (0.4 & 0.1%). They don't split out rent. Most of the decreases are on Mortgages and Fuel (and fuel has gone up a lot in preceding years). Using the CPI headline figure can be misleading on day to day costs.

[bennocelt]

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages, up 0.8 for the year to Feb 09 according to CSO. Marginally down for in the monthly and 3 monthly figures (0.4 & 0.1%). They don't split out rent. Most of the decreases are on Mortgages and Fuel (and fuel has gone up a lot in preceding years). Using the CPI headline figure can be misleading on day to day costs.

nah, i can always buy cheap beer
thank god for those german supermarkets
thats rubbish if you think food prices are gone up - sure if you shop in Marks and Spence and the like

[pete]

Saw little of that politics show on RTE last night & I think Dermot Ahern was on. He was rejecting the notion that fuel prices should be increased.

I expect more moaning after the budget. Every one says they will pay their share but not when it affects them.

[Macy]

nah, i can always buy cheap beer
thank god for those german supermarkets
thats rubbish if you think food prices are gone up - sure if you shop in Marks and Spence and the like

I buy my beer cheaper in Newry.

They weren't my figures, they were CSO figures, but I'm sure you know best.

I wouldn't say food prices have gone up, however, I see little evidence they have gone down. We have been shopping around for several years, long before the Lidl and Aldi bargain bandwagon was rolling. The family shop for our family hasn't come down. Tesco and Dunnes are only price matching Lidl and Aldi, which is probably what accounts for the small fall with the CSO, so if you were already shopping there you wouldn't see much difference.

[bennocelt]

They weren't my figures, they were CSO figures, but I'm sure you know best.

I wouldn't say food prices have gone up, however, I see little evidence they have gone down. We have been shopping around for several years, long before the Lidl and Aldi bargain bandwagon was rolling. The family shop for our family hasn't come down. Tesco and Dunnes are only price matching Lidl and Aldi, which is probably what accounts for the small fall with the CSO, so if you were already shopping there you wouldn't see much difference.

well i am finding the prices are down and im not the only one

the LIdl and Aldi baragin bandwagon!!!! WTF its not football you know, when you have spent all your life watching your money you tend to always be on the look out for a bargain, and try and save as much a possible.
Easy to know where you are coming from - hows the wine prices these days

[Macy]

Good for you, the stuff you buy mustn't be in the CSO basket in that case, but fair play if your food bills are down. It doesn't mean you can extrapolate that out for everyone else as a way of justifying social welfare cuts.

[mypost]

24 hours to when Leno the Knife taxes the country to within an inch of it's life. Hopefully, he won't get another standing ovation.

[eamo1]

Has nobody else noticed that the title of this thread should ACTUALLY read,APRIL 2009 BUDGET,not 2008.Cant believe nobody noticed it.

Anyway,budget will be a nail in F.F's coffin.The Bas**rds made a royal F up of the good times.Take a country like Norway who during the good times recognised they(good times) would come to an end and set aside vast amounts for savings.Then in their most recent budgets they annouced huge construction projects with they money they'd saved which will boost their economy.WE CANT EVEN DO THAT WE ARE SO SCREWED.

[NeilMcD]

Food and drink has gone up and will go up again next week, transport costs have gone up, rents have remained the same. Wages have come down, that's if you have a wage at all.

While there hasn't been a high rise in inflation, the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut. When you're on €200, every Euro counts.

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people and why should you punish those that have all those qualities.

[Sheridan]

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people and why should you punish those that have all those qualities.

I'd say "so what's the weather like in cloud cuckoo land these days? Give my regards to Roddy."

[osarusan]

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people

In some cases that is true, and the people who are eligible for the "super tax" are being adequately rewarded for their intelligence and innovation. But certainly not always true - would you describe Gerry Ryan (for example) that way?

why should you punish those that have all those qualities.

Interesting choice of word. Who would you like to see "punished" by increased taxes if not those who can most easily afford it?

[pete]

Take a country like Norway who during the good times recognised they(good times) would come to an end and set aside vast amounts for savings.

Sitting on a load of oil which makes situation a bit different. In the good times we paid off our National Debt but unfortunately will have borrow all the cash again in less than 2 years.

It is surprising that many people including politicians seem to think that a "super tax" will bring a lot of money. Adding even a new 50% tax for say those on 100k+ would not bring in much money.

IMO PAYE should never go above 50% at the absolute maxmium no matter how much someone earns. It would be bad enough that the state would take 1/2 your pay let alone more than you get.

I can see another emergency Budget before the next schedule one as I am not convinced the government know what they are doing.

[NeilMcD]

In some cases that is true, and the people who are eligible for the "super tax" are being adequately rewarded for their intelligence and innovation. But certainly not always true - would you describe Gerry Ryan (for example) that way?


Interesting choice of word. Who would you like to see "punished" by increased taxes if not those who can most easily afford it?

I am just asking the question. There is an argument that if you overly tax the rich well then you "punish" the wealth creators and as a result you take out innovation out of the economy. Its not a view I would subscribe too but its an interesting dilema that we have in a recession. I really do believe in the idea that in a boom you should tax more and in a recession you should have more stimulus measures.