Cycling 2009

[Bluebeard]

I was done on the same premise when making my predictions on a cycling website.

He finished 23rd yesterday, Dan Martin 106th, all 1m32 behind Terpstra and the leading bunch of five. Roche is now 1m59 down in 41st, while Martin is 2m20 behind the Yellow jersey at 85th. The Queen stage is on Thursday and that should shake everything up.

[Dodge]

http://www.irishcycling.com/publish/news/art_4021.shtml

No Deignan in le Tour. Disappointing for him

[Dodge]

Roche not in initial 5 selected for Ag2R

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/ag2r...irmed-for-tour

He is, however, one of 6 riders vying for 4 spots

[Dodge]

Slight hint that Dan martin is off to the tour. Garmin released a list of riders vying for their national championship this Sunday and Martin (our defending champion) wasn't among them

[Dodge]

Irishcycling.com reckons Martin has been selected for Le Tour.

Nothing official from Garmin yet

[Bluebeard]

According to Cycling News, both Roche and Martin are still in contention. AG2R are waiting until after the weekend's French Road Race Championships this weekend (that does not sound good for Roche).

Vaughters has continually hinted that he dreams of Dan Martin in the white jersey. And it is now on the Slipstream website!

[Dodge]

Great news. I checked before I posted too

Delighted its been confirmed

[Stuttgart88]

I think I read that Boonen is definitely out. A pity as I'd like to see he & Cavendish face to face in the sprints, though I think Cavendish would wipe the floor with anyone at the moment.

[Bluebeard]

I think the team that Columbia will pick will be designed with sprint glory largely in mind, and it is hard to see a challenger on the sprints with Boonen out. The Italian teams are not really out in force either - no Petacchi as Ireland's LPR Brakes are not invited, and I don't see Benatti being as fired up for it.

What could be a significant issue is Cavendish targetting the Green Jersey - for his four wins, Cavendish wasn't near the Green Jersey. Cavendish will be targetting it this year, so he may sacrifice a win or two to save his strength. There are eight flat stages this year, four consecutively at the start of the first week with only the team time trial separating them, three more wedged together at the beginning of the second, and the Champs Elysées. If he wants to make it all the way to Paris,

There are a couple of challengers, though, on the individual sprints, and one genuine contender for the Green Jersey:

If Oscar Freire can pull his form back after his injuries, he'd be a good bet for the Green jersey again - he can do well on the flat straights that Cavendish generally prefers, after a long and hill day that takes it out of the legs, or even the uphill sprint, and he is dogged enough to fight out every intermediate sprint, which all points to a possibilty of Green. Last year he took it by picking up a lot of places on all kinds of sprint finish stages. What could derail him is that the focus at Rabobank could be on the Yellow with Menchov, or the KOM, which seems to be an amazingly open race, presuming that the likes of Sastre, Contador, Evans and Andy Schleck are all going to be concentrating more on the Yellow. Not likely to trouble Cavendish on the flat fast sprints, but could be the man in Green.

I fancy Tyler Farrar to put at least one over on Cavendish. With no lead-out train of any note, he was the eternal second in the Giro, but if Pate, Millar, Wiggins, Zabriskie, Dean and Hesjedal do the job, he'll be in with a fighting chance. If Cavendish has a wobble on any of the sprints, it will most likely be Farrar to profit, and after his comments about the team time trial in the Giro, Garmin would treasure this most of all - it could infact completely redeem their season. In my mind, Farrar could be the greatest of Cavendish's problems, but don't expect this before the team time trial.

Heinrich Haussler and Thor Hushovd have had great seasons already. Two men who do not ordinarily need a lead out to triumph, they could really benefit one another, and muscle a win or two between them. I cannot see Hushovd beating Cavendish in a straight sprint between them, but he's a lot like Freire, and will probably contend almost every sprint, and place regularly, maybe even challenging for, or winning for a day or two, the Green. Haussler could feasibly beat Cavendish in a bunch sprint, but will likely save his powder for a more clear cut sprint chance where Cavendish has missed a break and Columbia are leading Boassen-Hagen or someone. Cervélo will be focussing more towards yellow, but a stage win is probably seen as a must for the Tour, wherever it may come from.

Gerald Ciolek of Milram is the man with most to gain from beating Cavendish - he played lead out man for a season or two to him when there was very little to separate them. Last season he was second on the Champs Elysées, and second to Cavendish on stage 8, having lead him out. He does seem to have gone backwards though this season, but this is the strongest Milram team I have seen picked this season - if they gel, they could potentially give Columbia a run for their money, leaving it up the lead out man and his former master.

Pozzato is the last of the men I am tipping to challenge Cavendish, and unfortunately, I do so with a heavy and unexpectant heart. His season was focussed on the cobbled classics and to come so close will have been disappointing. Katusha are in the mire though - Steegmans was to have been their chief sprinter for the Tour, probably Robbie McEwen his lead out, and that has gone sour, so it falls to Pozzato, more liekly than Napolitano. They will be looking for a good GC campaign from Karpets, stage wins, either from a break away (send for Ignatiev) or a sprint. Pozzato could win one - he is due a stage win at the tour, probably after a fairly undulating day, but I cannot see him contending more than that.

[Dodge]

Cervélo will be focussing more towards yellow, but a stage win is probably seen as a must for the Tour, wherever it may come from

Which is why the omission of Simon Gearrans is so shocking. A real tough rider who can win small breakaway sized bunch sprints.

Won a stage in the giro, and a stage in the tour last year.

I agree about Friere. When you think about the success he's had with absolutely no support, its astonishing. Doens't quite have the speed of the big sprinters but like Jalabert (before the crash) his strength and know how is second to none.

[Bluebeard]

Which is why the omission of Simon Gearrans is so shocking. A real tough rider who can win small breakaway sized bunch sprints.

Won a stage in the giro, and a stage in the tour last year.

I agree about Friere. When you think about the success he's had with absolutely no support, its astonishing. Doens't quite have the speed of the big sprinters but like Jalabert (before the crash) his strength and know how is second to none.

The Gerrans thing threw me alright. I didn't expect Deignan to make it, but I thought that Gerrans would for sure. I wonder is he injured or something - the last entry in his website (11-06) suggests that he was training hard and on the short list. Him missing out leaves Australia's chances glory in the hands of Cadel Evans and Alan Davis: Quickstep will prolly focus on putting Chavanel, or perhaps Pineau in breaks during the second week, so Davis will have to hope for a little luck in the first week, supposing he is picked. Evans is of course a different matter entirely - it is either this year or next year, or never, I fear.

[Dodge]

[geek]I follow Gerrans via twtter[/geek]

He was training with Armstrong, Leipheimir and a couple of others in Colorado. He "broke" the news that he didn't make the other day saying something like "coming to terms with not making the tour" (paraphrasing) so he wasn't injured. For some reason I find myself rooting for the English speaking members of the peleton so I'd be happy with an Evans win. He seems a top bloke too

[Bluebeard]

+ 1 on Evans - he's worked his nuts off without a team to assist, and has been so close too often now, a little like Phil Andersen in the 80s. Of the main / realistic contenders, he and Sastre are the ones I'd most like to see on the top of the podium at the end of next month.

Evans is very unpopular on the various British cycling fora, strangely enough.

[Dodge]

Nicolas Roche won the National Championship. Hopefully we get to see the national Champion jersey in le Tour.

In the French title race, Ag2R riders placed 5th, 6th and 7th. Only the 5th finisher was on the shotlist for the tour. IrishCycling.com interviewed him last week and he didn't seem confident

[Dodge]

Roche selected!

[Bluebeard]

Roche selected!

Brilliant news. Nothing up on Cyclingnews yet, but a single line on it on irishcycling.com - first time since the early 1990s that there are two Irishers at the Grand Depart. And two who could be hoping to do very well, what's more!

[Dodge]

its all on twitter bluebeard http://www.irishcycling.com/publish/news/art_4087.shtml

the Ag2R site had him winning the nationals as their top story last night. Since the 1992 race (with Roche, Kelly and earley) we've only had Scanlon in 2004

[Bluebeard]

Great weekend for Roche - finally becomes national champion and gets a Tour ticket, knowing that he will not have to wear this rather natty outfit.

All that remains now is to get the default design of the National Champions Jersey sorted out. I'd rather see something along the lines of the Italian or French jerseys, Green, White and Orange; the current effort looks rather twee. Does anyone know the history of how we came to the shamrocks - is it a 32 county, cath/prod dissenter thing? Presumably Dan Martin will have the tricolour trim for the Tour.

What makes it even more special is that there will be comparatively few os the big national jerseys on display this year on road days. No Belgium, France, Spain, Britain, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands or the US. As far as I can tell, it will be Ireland, Norway (Arvesen - Saxo Bank), Switzerland (Cancellara - Saxo Bank), Luxembourg (Andy Schleck - Saxo Bank AGAIN) and Italy (Pozzato - Katusha). Apparently Columbia won nearly all the national TTs.

its all on twitter bluebeard http://www.irishcycling.com/publish/news/art_4087.shtml

Oh, you kids with your intertubes!

[Dodge]

Was just looking through the lists for national champions alright. Think its the first time the Irish jersey will be there, and even better that it'll stand out so much

I've no idea on the shamrock thingy and tbh Martin's jersey is the first time I've ever seen any version of the national champion jersey.

Maybe it was done to stand out from the Maillot vert or the jersey worn by the national teams? Have to say I don't mind it so much

[Bluebeard]

I think Scanlon won it one of the years he was pro, but I don't recall him wearing it at the Tour. As far as I can recall it either wasn't held in the Kelly / Roche /Earley era, or wasn't contested by them. Certainly, I never recall them wearing a jersey other than the team one or the category leader jerseys.