FIFA rankings thread

[SuperDave]

Is there any series of reuslts in the remaining qualifiers that will get us into pot 2?

We are going to be in Pot 2. We need both Latvia to pass Greece (which would require Greece to lose at home to Luxembourg and Latvia to beat Moldova, both by loads of goals (total of seven between the two), with Israel not winning in Switzerland) and Sweden to pass Portugal (which would require Portugal failing to beat Malta at home). Only one of those happening might have been enough had we beaten Italy (in which case our ranking may have taken us above Ukraine) but as it is we would need both.

In short, impossible. Longer, we will draw France, Russia, Portugal (assuming they beat Malta) or Greece (assuming they beat Luxembourg and Switzerland don't lose at home to Israel, in which case we could get the Swiss).

[Kingdom]

Dave the lads are asking about Pot 2 for the Euro 12 qualifiers.

[geysir]

It looks to me that if Romania and Ireland both win, they have a good chance to leave pot 3, if both Israel and Slovakia don't win.
Then the play off roulette, even 2 draws, could take us back down again to pot 3.

[SuperDave]

Dave the lads are asking about Pot 2 for the Euro 12 qualifiers.

Duh. Sorry.

Well, before this weekend, we were 22nd, but Poland and Ukraine were above us..... now, that means we need to overtake two teams, Israel Romania and Slovakia being the closest ones (and really, given the numbers, the only feasible ones).... the teams beneath us are Bulgaria (hah!), Norway (didn't play) and Finland (who scraped past Wales), so nothing to worry about there

So the teams above us?

Israel (364 points in front of us) did what was expected and beat Moldova, now we want them to lose to the Swiss (a draw would qualify the Swiss for the world cup, Israel need a win to stand a playoff chance)... we may pass them.
Romania (602 in front of us) lost 5-0 to Serbia, and can't really improve much at home to the Faroes, so hopefully that result has seriously fcuked them up.... we'll see
Slovakia (1,725 in front of us) lost 2-0 at home to Slovenia, a dreadful result, and have to go to Poland.... if they fail to win there, they will be in the Playoffs, where another hammering could further affect them

In short, none of the teams have had great results and we could rise... but wins are important.... the criteria don't take into account respective rankings of opponents etc and strongly favour teams who qualify for tournaments, but we shall see... a win on wednesday would appear to be necessary though, along with an Israeli defeat.

[SuperDave]

sorry, my calcs were bull****.... i'll fix it tomorrow

[geysir]

Edgar has already posted what the Euro 2012 pots look like after saturdays games
Euro 2012 qual draw

[boysingreen]

A win vs. Montenegro and in both qualifiers will do us grande
------------------

The above is not the result of any mathematical equation, just wishful thinking! Sure we'd be better off in Pot 2, but is there anyone in there already that should give us nightmares?

[SuperDave]

I've done a spreadsheet that allows you to put in results in upcoming games and calculated seedings from there. I'll email it to anyone who wants it if they pm me their email address. For what it's worth, I put in some results and the following is a screenshot:



The results are something of a 'best case' scenario..... Obviously!!

[swinfordfc]

I think we will be 32nd placed in tomorrow rankings list

[SuperDave]

These are the up to date UEFA Euro 2012 seedings (I have included the bonus points for making the playoffs but obviously no data related to the results)

Spain ----- 39,964
Germany -- 38,294
Netherlands 37,821
Italy ------ 35,838
England --- 34,686
Croatia ---- 33,677
Russia ---- 33,067
France ---- 32,711
Portugal --- 32,580 - First Seeds
Greece ---- 31,365 - Second Seeds
Czech Rep - 30,871
Sweden --- 30,695
Switzerland 30,395
Serbia ----- 29,811
Turkey ---- 29,447
Ukraine ---- 29,341
Denmark --- 29,222
Slovakia --- 28,228
Romania --- 28,145 - Second Seeds
Israel ------ 28,052 - Third Seeds
Bulgaria --- 27,198
Ireland ---- 26,948
Finland ---- 26,827
Poland ----- 26,620
Norway ---- 26,210
Bosnia ----- 25,785
Scotland --- 25,646
Slovenia ---- 24,681
N Ireland --- 24,518 - Third Seeds
Austria ----- 24,381 - Fourth Seeds
Latvia ------ 23,303
Hungary ---- 23,048
Lithuania --- 22,071
Belarus ----- 21,515
Belgium ----- 21,426
Wales ------- 21,274
Macedonia -- 19,409
Cyprus ------ 18,791 - Fourth Seeds
Montenegro - 18,751 - Fifth Seeds
Albania ------18,319
Estonia ----- 17,792
Georgia ----- 15,819
Moldova ---- 15,734
Iceland ----- 15,404
Armenia -----15,164
Kazakhstan --14,730
Liechtenstein 13,581 - Fifth Seeds
Azerbaijan ---13,500 - Sixth Seeds
Luxembourg --11,872
Malta ------- 11,517
Faroes ------10,620
Andorra ----- 9,197
San Marino -- 7,783

Playoff teams are in bold.

Three of the top four teams are likely to remain first seeds, with the fourth one remaining / dropping to second seed status.

Ukraine are likely to say second seeds.

We are almost certain to remain third seeds, along with Bosnia.

Slovenia will possibly be third seeds, but could slip to fourth!

I'll include an automatic calculator once the draw is made.

[elroy]

I presume (like last campaign) second place in the group for Euro 2012 will guarantee a place in the finals.

[SuperDave]

I presume (like last campaign) second place in the group for Euro 2012 will guarantee a place in the finals.

Nope. There are to be nine groups, not seven.... if there were seven groups, we would currently be 21st and on the very verge of being 4th seeds if we lost in the playoffs.

The nine winners and best runner up will qualify, with the remaining eight runners up entering playoffs.

My Uefa informants tell me that the draw for the playoffs will be seeded but if Uefa decide half way through they don't give a sh it who qualifies cos the big nations are all in, they'll fu ck with us all and get rid of the seeding just for the hell of it.

[Crosby87]

We will never qualify for Euro. The team will be half too old half too young. Trap is of a delicate age and will probably be a little dementia riddled by the Euro deal. He is likely to try and name Roy Keane thinking its ten years ago.
Its either Africa or Brazil in 4.

[geysir]

These are the up to date UEFA Euro 2012 seedings (I have included the bonus points for making the playoffs but obviously no data related to the results)

....
Playoff teams are in bold.

Three of the top four teams are likely to remain first seeds, with the fourth one remaining / dropping to second seed status.

Ukraine are likely to say second seeds.

We are almost certain to remain third seeds, along with Bosnia.

Slovenia will possibly be third seeds, but could slip to fourth!

I'll include an automatic calculator once the draw is made.

For the euro 2012 draw Poland and Ukraine are not in the seeding pots.

So do it again please

[SuperDave]

For the euro 2012 draw Poland and Ukraine are not in the seeding pots.

So do it again please

If you look closely you'll notice there are 10 teams in the second and third seed pots.... now look closer still and you'll see Ukraine are in the second pot and Poland are in the third.

[geysir]

Smart aleck

[EalingGreen]

These are the up to date UEFA Euro 2012 seedings (I have included the bonus points for making the playoffs but obviously no data related to the results)

Israel ------ 28,052 - Third Seeds
Bulgaria --- 27,198
Ireland ---- 26,948
Finland ---- 26,827
Poland ----- 26,620
Norway ---- 26,210
Bosnia ----- 25,785
Scotland --- 25,646
Slovenia ---- 24,681
N Ireland --- 24,518 - Third Seeds
Austria ----- 24,381 - Fourth Seeds
Latvia ------ 23,303
Hungary ---- 23,048
Lithuania --- 22,071
Belarus ----- 21,515
Belgium ----- 21,426
Wales ------- 21,274
Macedonia -- 19,409
Cyprus ------ 18,791 - Fourth Seeds

Pardon my ignorance, but does this mean that we (NI) cannot be overtaken for 3rd seeding by any of the Play-Off results (indeed could see Slovenia fall below us if they bomb out in their p/offs), but could slip down to 4th seeding if we perform badly in any friendlies we play between now and the Draw* for Euro2012?

* - In Feb.2010?

P.S. There is strong talk that NI will be playing an away friendly with Bulgaria in November. I hope you have softened them up for us!

[holidaysong]

EG, yes NI are safe as third seeds. Friendly matches don't count for the UEFA national team co-efficents, only for the FIFA world rankings.

[swinfordfc]

in today official rankings today - we are ranked 34th placed (sorry i thought it would be 32nd) - if we had won the last night - we be 28th

[SuperDave]

Re Seedings..... my calculator tells me even if we win both legs 6-0 or even if we lose them 6-0 we will be third seeds for euro2012.

Slovenia might slip from 3rd to 4th seeds if they lose even one leg (what a kick in the teeth, winning one leg, losing the other, qualifying and being fourth seeds for 2012!) and Austria will rise, or Bosnia could fall from 3rd to 4th if they lose both legs (or even draw one), but both cannot fall, only one, with Austria rising from 4th to 3rd seeds.

Ukraine could fall from 2nd seeds to 3rd seeds but realistically only if they lose both legs home and away to Greece.

Greece could rise from 2nd seeds to 1st seeds at the expense of any of the others, but only if one of them fails to win a single game (except for Russia for whom two draws is enough to retain first seed status) and Greece win both of theirs.

A little irrelevant today, I know, but still worth keeping an eye on. I mean, Slovenia could qualify with a 2-0 win and 1-0 loss and fall to fourth seed status for the euro qualifiers!