FIFA rankings thread

Originally Posted by geysir

The ranking points predictions are a mystery to me if we only get 60 points for 3 wins plus a draw plus at the same time improving our overall win ratio over the 4 years
in contrast to Norway alone getting a 100 points for a single win in August.

In the light of this unexplainable conspiratorial process to keep our ranking points down, we would have to beat Italy to keep ahead of the Ukraine if they beat England.

i worked out before that we get 1470 points for beating italy. then you have to plug that into the weighted value of 48 months - not easy.

why do i get the feeling that we're spending more time trying to figure this out than anyone in the fai is...

Originally Posted by geysir

The 1 nil defeat to France dropped off the rankings radar.
I can't imagine there were too many good times after that to worry about with getting reduced in % of ranking value.

For instance in August, Norway got a 100 points for beating Scotland, Croatia got about 60 for beating lowly Belarus away.
It's either a mistake by Edgar or a conspiracy, that allows us only 60 points for 3 wins and a draw.

It's neither.

Sep-Oct 2005 is going out: France (L), Cyprus (W), Switzerland (D). All qualifiers.


Sep-Oct 2006 going from 0.3 to 0.2: Cyprus (L), Czech Republic (D). Both qualifiers.

Sept-Oct 2007 going from 0.5 to 0.3: Slovakia (D), Czech Republic (L), Germany (D). All qualifiers.

Sept-Oct 2008 going from 1.0 to 0.5: Georgia (W), Montenegro (D), Cyprus (W). All qualifiers.

New matches: Cyprus (W), South Africa (W) and probable results: Italy (D), Montenegro (W).

With all these results losing value this is what happens:

"0.2" - you lose 15.43 points.
"0.3" - you lose 1.56 points.
"0.5" - you gain 60.56 points
"1.0" - you gain 18.45 points.

Added up - around 62 points.

You can also take a look at this FIFA ranking post with all the teams in the running for a play-off spot.

This is more complicated than the Duckworth Lewis method for rain at cricket!

Thanks for that Edgar.
The big loss was losing 50% the value of 2 wins and a draw from last year.

I thought it looked suspect that before our 2 games this Sept, we had 743 ranking points and according to your table, we had the same 743 points afterwards.

Originally Posted by geysir

Thanks for that Edgar.
The big loss was losing 50% the value of 2 wins and a draw from last year.

I thought it looked suspect that before our 2 games this Sept, we had 743 ranking points and according to your table, we had the same 743 points afterwards.

If you're talking about the third column in the FIFA Ranking preview, those are the official FIFA points for the Republic of Ireland in the September ranking.

The official FIFA points for Ireland are from Sept 2.
Before the Sept games?

Yes, those are the most recent official values available. If you go through the previews, you'll see the minimum and maximum values have changed after the September games. So there's no conspiracy or mistake.

Yes I see the preview.
The starting point is 743 points, which is the official Fifa ranking from Sept 2
and the max min prediction looks to be based on 2 games only, the last 2 games.

so what about our points from the south africa and cyprus wins? not that many maybe but still.

i'm with geysir on this, i don't see how we can be starting on 743, unless it's purely coincidental.

i note also that all the other teams are starting from their sept 2 position, so i guess edgar is grouping the 4 matches in his preview, however when i click on 'the list of results used for this ranking' only the italy and montenegro matches are mentioned.

Originally Posted by geysir

Yes I see the preview.
The starting point is 743 points, which is the official Fifa ranking from Sept 2
and the max min prediction looks to be based on 2 games only, the last 2 games.

Originally Posted by foureyes

so what about our points from the south africa and cyprus wins? not that many maybe but still.

i'm with geysir on this, i don't see how we can be starting on 743, unless it's purely coincidental.

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust after getting the 2010 WCQ pots right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

FIFA Ranking: October 2009 preview (II)
FIFA Ranking: October 2009 preview (V)

Look for the Republic of Ireland in both posts.

First link:Min 764, Max 799.
Second link: Min 685, Max 894.

The September wins vs. Cyprus and South Africa are already in.

Originally Posted by Edgar

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust after getting the 2010 WCQ pots right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

FIFA Ranking: October 2009 preview (II)
FIFA Ranking: October 2009 preview (V)

Look for the Republic of Ireland in both posts.

First link:Min 764, Max 799.
Second link: Min 685, Max 894.

The September wins vs. Cyprus and South Africa are already in.

ok i get it now i was a bit confused as 'the list of results used for this ranking' only mention the italy and montenegro matches. but evidently the other points are added in aswell.

Originally Posted by Edgar

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust after getting the 2010 WCQ pots right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

As you may remember it was not enough to have the answer in Maths, you had to show how you got there

My point was about the (confusing to me) preview teams to be seeded in the play off

Considering we had played the games in Sept, then I would have expected the Sept ranking - the one after the Sept Qualifiers - would have been the starting point in this preview when calculating all the max min possibilities for the last 2 games.

However in actuality, you use the FIFA Sept 2 ranking points on the first left hand column and assume that the reader knows that the 2 games already played after Sept 2 are taken into consideration when calculating the max min for the last 2 games.




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Originally Posted by geysir

As you may remember it was not enough to have the answer in Maths, you had to show how you got there

My point was about the (confusing to me) preview teams to be seeded in the play off

Considering we had played the games in Sept, then I would have expected the Sept ranking - the one after the Sept Qualifiers - would have been the starting point in this preview when calculating all the max min possibilities for the last 2 games.

However in actuality, you use the FIFA Sept 2 ranking points on the first left hand column and assume that the reader knows that the 2 games already played after Sept 2 are taken into consideration when calculating the max min for the last 2 games.

I did that some time ago and some people complained. Go figure

Originally Posted by Edgar

I did that some time ago and some people complained. Go figure

That would confirm that your first instincts were more clear

Newsflash: interim rankings for euro 2012 qualifiers released (though obviously subject to change).... looks like third pot for us as we are ranked 22nd in those teams. However, we are beneath Ukraine and Poland, so effectively we are 20th and only need to pass two teams, Israel and Romania..... we want to see those teams fail in the upcoming qualifiers so we get second seed status.

http://www.uefa.com/multimediafiles/...5_DOWNLOAD.pdf

May i put it another way ....
hope Portugal dont win in group 1 against Hungary

hope Latvia beat Greece in group 2

and Czech Republic dont beat Poland in Group 3 ...

i think thats leave us in the top 4 seeds? ... am i right saying that?

Originally Posted by swinfordfc

May i put it another way ....
hope Portugal dont win in group 1 against Hungary

hope Latvia beat Greece in group 2

and Czech Republic dont beat Poland in Group 3 ...

i think thats leave us in the top 4 seeds? ... am i right saying that?

provided we finish second in our group of course ....

With the draw against Italy - we now as it stand have 755 rankings points - is this collect and if we win on wednesday night - we go up to 805 rankings point? is this right Edgar?

If you win against Montenegro you'll have 805 points. That's correct.

Is there any series of reuslts in the remaining qualifiers that will get us into pot 2?