Originally Posted by
EalingGreen
Don't know anything about the games/players in question, but do know a wee bit about betting. Basically there are two types of scam.
The first is where a connected person has inside information which indicates a certain result and so backs its.
Obvious examples where Team A has injury problems, rows in the dressing room, a manager who's "lost it", or a deliberately weakend team is to be picked e.g to save the players for a more important game.
Their opponents, Team B, might not be up to much, but if they are giving 100% against weakened/non-trying opposition, then they (Team B) will have attract generous odds to win. And crucially, if the connected person is in a position to influence the result further i.e. is a player or manager of Team A, so much the better.
But that is not quite the same as a fixed result i.e. where Team A should beat Team B comfortably, and so match fixers arrange for Team A to lose. In such circumstances, it is actually very rare for the players to be the key - whether bribed to throw the game, or betting on themselves to do so.
This is because you can't rely on two or three players to produce an upset, e.g. giving away or missing penalties, or a keeper letting in soft goals etc, because if their teammates are giving 100%, then the activities of the dodgy players will be so blatant as to attract attention. Moreover, they can't guarantee they won't be subbed if they are playing badly, or sent off if fouling etc.
And bribing several players from a team might cost more than you win, as well as greatly increasing the chances of it leaking out, or one of the players approached reporting it to the authorities.
In which case, the key to match fixing is actually to get to the Referee - as has been seen even in the big leagues, such as Germany and Italy - or conceivably Team A's keeper.
But even then, fixing a match result (W, L or D) to upset the odds is too crude these days. It is much easier to arrange, and less likely to be noticed, a spread bet on the score.
For example, Team A is rated to beat Team B by 2.5 goals (effectively three). You will get decent odds on Team A only to win by 1.5 or less (effectively by a single goal, or even draw or lose). Therefore, if you can get to the Referee/Keeper - then you greatly enhance your chances.
So that if e.g. Team A goes ahead after 30 mins, the Ref/keeper doesn't need to cheat. If Team A then get a second goal, the Ref/Keeper still only has to award/concede a penalty, the score is now 2-1 and the bet is a winner again.
If that's how the match finishes, then nobody really notices - Team A just made harder work of it than normal.
Of course, if Team A gets a late 3rd goal, then the Ref/Keeper has to work extra hard to concede a second goal, but even if he does, people will just put it down to an "off-day" i.e. their suspicions won't be aroused, since Team A still won 3-2.
Of course, if Team A has a blinder and score half a dozen unstoppable goals, then the Ref or Keeper just accepts he cannot be seen to "throw" five dodgy decisions/own goals etc and the bet loses.
The fixers behind it know you can't win them all, but there'll always be another game and another opportunity.
Anyhow, from the speculation so far, if there is anything in the rumours, it is almost certainly an example of the first type of scam (imo).
(Still stinks, mind, with anyone caught and proven deserving a life ban from the game imo)
QuoteI agree with Stu above I feel a case of stupidity more than an attempt at throwing the actual game. If any of the allegations prove remotely true.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks