How/ why are we out? Two games gone, one bad defeat but a good draw against the likely group winners. Poland and Slovakia have also dropped two and three points respectively in games they were expected to win.Originally Posted by irishultra
NI and Slovenia are unlikely with our lack of depth to make second place. But it's at least a month too early to write them off completely.
Now in fairness when I said that I didn't see the results. Slovania have been a very very very poor side since the 2002 world cup(I think they finished second bottom last time) and beat Poland so that really throws the group wide open.
If NI get a win in Slovenia then they're right back in it.
Not trying to put a brave face on things when I say I'm still reasonably encouraged by our form/attitude, if not by the actual results.
Against Slovakia, we had a "bad day at the office" and although purely on the basis of chances and penalty claims etc, we (theoretically) deserved a draw, in the end, we got what we deserved - nowt!
That said, one defeat in a 10 game campaign needn't make a difference to qualifying. Much more important was how we reacted to that defeat, in which case we're still in good health.
The Czechs are clearly a good team and if they don't have the dazzling individuals they formerly had, they mostly make up for that by excellent teamwork and big game experience derived from the last few years.
By contrast, NI were without 3 of our 6 "big" players (Davis, Lafferty and Johnson), with a fourth (Healy) clearly lacking match fitness (Taylor and Aaron Hughes are the others). Nonetheless, we managed to take the game to them, so that the Czechs were happy to play out the last 20 minutes for the draw.
With other results so far in the Group going broadly our way, we can still hope that the Czechs will top the Group, taking lots of points from our competitors. Then we can hope to take 4 points from Poland, leaving the Poles, Slovaks and Slovenians to cancel each other out, whilst we slip in the back door into second place.
Onwards and Upwards!
Will ye be selling packages for South Africa EG?
Maybe even the same sectarian songs that got some ROI fans into bother in the same bar last year?
prej·u·dice (prj-ds)
n.
1.
a. An adverse judgment or opinion formed beforehand or without knowledge or examination of the facts.
b. A preconceived preference or idea.
2. The act or state of holding unreasonable preconceived judgments or convictions.
3. Irrational suspicion or hatred of a particular group, race, or religion.
4. Detriment or injury caused to a person by the preconceived, unfavorable conviction of another or others.
Other results don't matter a damn if you are not clocking up the points.
NI will be scrapping for 3rd at best, I don't think there will be much between 3rd 4th and 5th.
Another away defeat to Slovenia next month may be papered over for a while by a home win against San Marino.
Thanks, Nostradamus. Alternatively, a fluke 1-0 win in Maribor might just be followed by two more scrapped successes against the Sammarinese. We'll try to secure the winner before the 95th minute, to avoid any jitters.
Slovenia drew with Poland (away).
They beat Slovakia at home.
You're right - we need to break our away form blues, and get a victory in Slovenia.
Something gives between the Czechs and Poles that day too.
The Englishmen came over in the year 2005
But little did they know that we'd planned a wee surprise
Sir David scored the winner, and Windsor Park went wild
And this is what we sang...
If NI can get a full squad, I could see them sneaking a win in Slovinia. Presuming they bean San Marino that will leave them with 7 points and in a very healthy position. Still all to play for
Just wondering what the NI fans think of Worthington? I watched the game on SKy the other night and the atmosphere didn't seem as good as previously. Don't know if this was because of Sky or some other reason.
Always look on the bright side of life
Some, whose expectations are perhaps too high, want him to leave immediately.
Others are prepared to give him a run through this campaign to see how things shape up.
We started this group as fourth favourites to win it - to add some context.
The Englishmen came over in the year 2005
But little did they know that we'd planned a wee surprise
Sir David scored the winner, and Windsor Park went wild
And this is what we sang...
Now NI are 5th favourites, just ahead of San Marino.
Thanks for that - I've just spotted a good opportunity on the spreads.
If we finish fifth, there'll be no more plans being made for Nigel.
Last edited by Not Brazil; 12/09/2008 at 4:38 PM.
The Englishmen came over in the year 2005
But little did they know that we'd planned a wee surprise
Sir David scored the winner, and Windsor Park went wild
And this is what we sang...
NI out to 1/41 'not to qualify' but strangely at a mean 12/1 'to qualify'.
That 12/1 looks to be the bargain bet of the year
It would presumably include having to get 19 out of 22 available points.
12 points from SM & Poland home and away
6 points from 2 home games Slov and Slov
1 away point against Czech.
And all that just to achieve second in the group and then meet Italy in the play off (or some team like that).
We created some decent chances - and if we can start taking them, we will pick up points.
"We have played three games, conceded four goals - but Maik Taylor has not had a save to make."
In Trap we trust
NI has taken 8 points from a possible 27 competitive points under Nigel Worthington. That's less than 1 point per game (0.88 to be exact). If Nigel continues to steer the NI team like I have every confidence in him, I'm sure NI can muster up 9 points from their 10 WC qualifying games.
Let's compare Nigel Worthington's record against top manager Steve Staunton. Despite his failings even Staunton has a better record than Worthington. From 11 qualifying games, Ireland took 16 points, 1.45 points per game.
If NI take maximum points against San Marino in their next 2 qualifiers, (although judging by Nigel's quotes he's not too confident), Nigel will have amassed 14 points from 11 competitive games. That's 1.27 points per game.
To quote EG
You must be rolling around the ground in spasms of laughter now EG
Last edited by ifk101; 13/10/2008 at 5:44 AM.
Doesn't that sound like 'Maik Taylor has not made a save'.
Can't see the North qualifying after getting 1 point from 3 games, unfortunately.
Nothing strange there at all, just a 5% margin for the bookies.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
I don't understand the 5% margin bit but I do understand the 99.9% likliehood of the Bookies banking any bets made on NI at 12/1.
Odds of 12/1 against NI qualifying look ridiculous compared to the task involved.
Sorry.
Odds of 12/1 indicate roughly an 8% chance of NI qualifying (1 divided by 13) and odds of 1/41 indicate about a 97% chance of NI not qualifying, adding up to 105%. There's a 100% chance of one of those happening (obviously!) so the 5% difference is where the bookies make their profit.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
Thanks Schumi, I wondered how it was done.
In a 2 horse race like this, first they calculate the red hot fav and then balance the book with the price of the 2nd fav.
Even if the price for the 2nd fav. looks mean, there is a logic to it.
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