General Election 2020

[Real ale Madrid]

SF will do well to beat 22 seats. Since I did my totals Padraig Mac Lochlainn has moved from out of the top 5 into 4th fav in a 5 seater (Donegal) leaving the 5th seat up for grabs between FF/Ind. Pat the Cope Gallagher / Tomas Pringle although an opinion poll shows a 4 point gap in fav of FF.
That would see SF up to 19 according to the bookies. The bookies can get the odd seat wrong but I can't see any scenario where SF get higher than the last time, but they are still in there swinging in a lot of places.

McHugh is 1 I like also but she has an uphill battle according to the oddsmakers - lying 6th in a 4 seat

Mayo - to win a seat (PP)
Calleary FF 1/20
Ring FG 1/20
Chambers FF 1/8
Dillon FG 4/6
Mulhern FG 4/6
McHugh G 2/1
Rose Conway-Walsh SF 13/5
50/1 Bar the rest.

[NeverFeltBetter]

If SD's return with just two they really should throw their hat at it. Gannon really should pick up a seat in Dublin Central though.

Similarly, Aontu are dead in the water with just Toibin returned. He claimed they were aiming to win 20+ council seats last year, they ended up with four, one of them in the north. Now he's saying they're aiming to win five TD's (previously he said seven), but from where? Toibin losing his seat is not impossible. If that happens its just Renua all over again.

[nigel-harps1954]

SF will do well to beat 22 seats. Since I did my totals Padraig Mac Lochlainn has moved from out of the top 5 into 4th fav in a 5 seater (Donegal) leaving the 5th seat up for grabs between FF/Ind. Pat the Cope Gallagher / Tomas Pringle although an opinion poll shows a 4 point gap in fav of FF.
That would see SF up to 19 according to the bookies. The bookies can get the odd seat wrong but I can't see any scenario where SF get higher than the last time, but they are still in there swinging in a lot of places.

McHugh is 1 I like also but she has an uphill battle according to the oddsmakers - lying 6th in a 4 seat

Mayo - to win a seat (PP)
Calleary FF 1/20
Ring FG 1/20
Chambers FF 1/8
Dillon FG 4/6
Mulhern FG 4/6
McHugh G 2/1
Rose Conway-Walsh SF 13/5
50/1 Bar the rest.

As I see it, MacLochlainn is a shoe in. Pearse Doherty will be elected on the first count, MacLochlainn will get all his 2nd preference votes and will take most of Inishowens first preference himself.

It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.

[Real ale Madrid]

It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.

McConalogue topped the poll in 2016 so if FF are under pressure it will be Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher who would be affected. McConalogue is 1/8 to win a seat while Gallagher sits at about 5/6.

[nigel-harps1954]

I know yeah, it's probably just from my own circles more than a general consensus, but McConalogue has been extremely quiet since elections and has only seemingly resurfaced this past few weeks ahead of election time.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

[Real ale Madrid]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

12/1 to win a Seat in Donegal - currently 8th in the betting (5 seater ) will poll ok but not a factor to win a seat id imagine.
Also running in Dublin West - 12/1 there as well. I'd imagine he won't poll as well there. Weird place to run - top heavy with high profile candidates.

[nigel-harps1954]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

More chance of a month of snow in the Sahara desert.

[backstothewall]

SF under performed similar poll number in 2016, which will be a concern for them, but if they get close to hitting the numbers suggested in these polls it's hard to see how the fail to make decent gains. You just can't increase your vote by 50% and not make gains somewhere. They certainly shouldn't be losing any seats (apart from Dublin Mid-West), and the second seat in Donegal should be a formality.

In 2016 their support base had a feel of being a mile wide and an inch deep, but it seems different this time. The The usual attacks about the Ra in the last week won't have the same impact without Adams in charge either. If their do put a decent increase on it won't be the same in all counties. There will be really big jumps in some counties and more modest ones in others. Where they get those big increases they'll maybe case a few upsets.

But it all depends on them hitting the numbers the pollsters are giving them.

[NeverFeltBetter]

12/1 to win a Seat in Donegal - currently 8th in the betting (5 seater ) will poll ok but not a factor to win a seat id imagine.
Also running in Dublin West - 12/1 there as well. I'd imagine he won't poll as well there. Weird place to run - top heavy with high profile candidates.

Dublin West is my constituency, and yeah, he'll get nowhere there. Even his stated goal of taking votes off Varadkar wont work out, more likely he'll take them off FF's Jack Chambers. Am pleasantly surprised he seems to be a non-entity in Donegal though.

[Real ale Madrid]

If SD's return with just two they really should throw their hat at it. Gannon really should pick up a seat in Dublin Central though.

Niall O Tuathail is making serious headway in Galway - sitting at 12% in a TG4 opinion poll and he still sits at 5/6 to win a seat so i've had some of that! 4 seats would be a good return for them I think and that looks more realistic now.

SF under performed similar poll number in 2016, which will be a concern for them, but if they get close to hitting the numbers suggested in these polls it's hard to see how the fail to make decent gains. You just can't increase your vote by 50% and not make gains somewhere. They certainly shouldn't be losing any seats (apart from Dublin Mid-West), and the second seat in Donegal should be a formality.

In 2016 their support base had a feel of being a mile wide and an inch deep, but it seems different this time. The The usual attacks about the Ra in the last week won't have the same impact without Adams in charge either. If their do put a decent increase on it won't be the same in all counties. There will be really big jumps in some counties and more modest ones in others. Where they get those big increases they'll maybe case a few upsets.

But it all depends on them hitting the numbers the pollsters are giving them.

Yeah - maybe I'm being a bit too pessimistic with regards SF and their seats - i'll re-do the calcs again tomorrow and again on the 6th Feb to see where they sit. The slight problem they have is they are not as transfer friendly in places as perhaps some other parties and seem to be in a lot of tight races for last seats. Big opportunity for them over the next week.

[Kingdom]

As I see it, MacLochlainn is a shoe in. Pearse Doherty will be elected on the first count, MacLochlainn will get all his 2nd preference votes and will take most of Inishowens first preference himself.

Bang on there, that's how I see it.

It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.

If FF had any worries on McConalogue he wouldn't be a prime shadow. He'll be Agri Minister if they are in government. I see it how RAM sees it.

McConalogue topped the poll in 2016 so if FF are under pressure it will be Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher who would be affected. McConalogue is 1/8 to win a seat while Gallagher sits at about 5/6.

1. Doherty
2. McConalogue
3. MacLochlainn
4. McHugh
5. Gallagher/Pringle

Casey makes it interesting, how much will he take away from Pringle (if at all) nigel?

[nigel-harps1954]

Casey will take nothing from Pringle. He's the only genuine candidate in the south of the county and Casey is looking for a very different vote to Pringle.

Pringle is, outside of Doherty, the most active TD in Donegal. Has done superb work for an independent, and I think that'll be reflected in the vote. He's an easy number 1 for independent voters in Donegal.

The only thing that harms his chances is the split of constituency boundaries with Ballyshannon/Bundoran area. If it weren't for that split in the last general election, he would have been elected much quicker.

[backstothewall]

I had a look there. I came away with

FF 50
FG 40
SF 27
Green 7
Lab 8
PBP-AAA 5
SocDems 5
Ind/Other 18

Grand coalition looks the only option if it's anything like that.

[Real ale Madrid]

All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

FF - 54 Seats (+7)
FG - 46 Seats (+1)
Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacent Currently

I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)


FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.

Ok 1 week on - a good week (according to the odds) makers for SF , a bad one for SOL/PBP

They say:

FF - 55 Seats (+8 From 2016)
FG - 44 Seats (-1)
Sinn Fein - 23 Seats (+1)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 7 Seats (NC)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 3 Seats (+1)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 16 Seats (-7)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

Same logic as before as regards who is still in contention for seats....

FF in the hunt for 12 seats, and in last place for 9 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 10 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 3 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 2 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 4 more seats and last place in no area
Independents in the hunt for 11 more seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential upswing )

SF now in position to win a 2nd seat in Donegal, Louth and Dublin Mid-West according to PP.
They now have SOL-PBP outside the seats everywhere except Richard Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire but are still in the hunt in all 5 seats they hold. Paul Murphy is still in with a shout in Dublin South West also - he's listed in my total as an independent.

FF/SF would have 78 seats between them in this model......

This is not my analysis but merely what the bookies are predicting. Will post again next Thursday

[backstothewall]

Sunday Times Poll

FF 23%;
SF 21%;
FG 19%;
GP 10%;
LP 5%;
SD 5%;
SPBP 5%;
Others 11%;

Health warnings apply as Panelbase have no history in Ireland, but it certainly doesn't suggest the SF momentum is stalling.

[backstothewall]

The convention wisdom this week has been that SF don't have enough candidates. Based on those numbers my thoughts would be that FF & FG have too many. There's going to be a load of places where the lone SF candidate tops to poll and gets to sit in the count centre and relax watch count after count of FF & FG candidates with single figure percentages taking lumps out of each other.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm reading that poll was carried out online, so I'm not sure how much trust should be placed in it.

Still, would be quite the result if replicated on polling day. A left coalition could out-seat FF/FG.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The convention wisdom this week has been that SF don't have enough candidates. Based on those numbers my thoughts would be that FF & FG have too many. There's going to be a load of places where the lone SF candidate tops to poll and gets to sit in the count centre and relax watch count after count of FF & FG candidates with single figure percentages taking lumps out of each other.

If this was to be the case on election day, the thing that could really upset the applecart is the SF transfers, which presumably will be going to the likes of Sol-PBP, like-minded Independents, the Greens, Soc Dems and Labour (in that order I'd imagine) before hitting FF and FG. Could be a tonne of surprises Sunday week.

[backstothewall]

I'm reading that poll was carried out online, so I'm not sure how much trust should be placed in it.

Still, would be quite the result if replicated on polling day. A left coalition could out-seat FF/FG.

Red C have it even worse for the civil war parties...

FF 24
SF 24
FG 21

SF generally underperform their poll numbers but they would have to be spectacularly wrong this time for them not to make big gains.