World Cup Qualifying - Group D

**paul_oshea** · 13/07/2016, 10:38 PM

I had a look at thay squad and makeupq and also the clubs played for. I was specifically thinking about osarusan and nigel harps points about players prefering to stay in their own leagues as more chance of international recognition or chances and also uprooting their family. I am not really sure i ever bought that point or argument. There is a serbian midfielder playing in Astana. Now i have no idea of the wages being paid but if a player is willing to move to kazakhstan and is still getting called up for his country then a move to ireland would surely be just as appetising. And id imagine a player playing for the serbian national team would be an asset to any Loi club. Sometimes I think its more about being open minded and taking a risk than anything else.

I'd imagine bar astana kazakh football isnt of a much better standard than Loi(as previous club have shown)

Is there any website that details countries by average wage for a soccer player?

**tetsujin1979** · 13/07/2016, 11:38 PM

his transfer value is estimated here at 1.4million: http://info.nowgoal.com/en/team/play...953&teamid=683 and the Astana stadium holds 30,000
I'm going to guess his wages are out of the reach of any League of Ireland club

**Charlie Darwin** · 14/07/2016, 1:40 AM

Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

his transfer value is estimated here at 1.4million: http://info.nowgoal.com/en/team/play...953&teamid=683 and the Astana stadium holds 30,000
I'm going to guess his wages are out of the reach of any League of Ireland club

It holds 30,000 but I don't think they've ever filled it. Their average attendance is around 5,000, which is 60% higher than Cork City's. Astana have a massive, potentially limitless (within FFP) budget because they're owned by the state oil company. They bought a player for €2 million a couple of years ago, for instance. Plus the difference in cost of living means their players are among the best-paid people in the country, whereas even the highest-earner in the LOI doesn't earn much over the average industrial wage.

**paul_oshea** · 14/07/2016, 7:57 AM

I didnt find astana that cheap! I think its similar to brazil in its distribution of wealth. And to enjoy your lifestyle you need to be earning western wages. I remember asking a yank working there how much a standard 2 bed would be there and he was saying $200-250k. stadium is never full alright ice hockey is much bigger over there.

But fair enough their transfer budget is still much bigger by the sounds of it.

**paul_oshea** · 14/07/2016, 7:58 AM

But the overall point i was trying to make was these lads can obviously be enticed regardless of situation, circumstance or international aspirations.

**Stuttgart88** · 14/07/2016, 8:20 AM

Lots of Irish guys have gone to mad places to play, but none of our decent players, that's probably true. I'm just not sure far flung foreign clubs have that much interest in our players though. It's both a supply and demand issue.

**paul_oshea** · 14/07/2016, 9:46 AM

I was also saying it the other way around as well Stutts.

In the Seribans case, I'm sure he speaks Russian, and the Kazakhs all speak russian, so there wouldn't be a language barrier, so that might be one plus in that type of transfer.

**Kingdom** · 14/07/2016, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by DeLorean

We probably treated it as a must-win at the time but the victory in Armenia turned out to be a pretty impressive result in hindsight.

It absolutely was - with hindsight. Nobody expected Armenia to figure as much as they did in that group.

Since we've started challenging for groups (okay okay, for runner's up in groups) the formula is pretty simple. 6 points from the weak teams or lower seeds. Draw with the higher seeds away and nick one win at home. That's a pretty solid template if you're a second or third seed to begin with. When you're fourth seed that is a different kettle of fish!

If we were to remain unbeaten on the road, beating Moldova and Georgia home and away, and got one victory at home remaining unbeaten against the others, I'd be happy enough with that.

**paul_oshea** · 14/07/2016, 10:55 AM

You might be happy enough, but there is no Germany, Spain or France to run away with the group. So that will not be enough. I predict us needing two home wins at least and draws against all of them away. That might still not be enough, for second - if the 2 wins don't come against those who would/will/are finish ahead of us.

Yours would have us at 19 points, assuming we draw the other 1 at home, I am not sure that would be enough, as tight and all as the group could become.

**Kingdom** · 17/07/2016, 1:24 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

You might be happy enough, but there is no Germany, Spain or France to run away with the group. So that will not be enough. I predict us needing two home wins at least and draws against all of them away. That might still not be enough, for second - if the 2 wins don't come against those who would/will/are finish ahead of us.

Yours would have us at 19 points, assuming we draw the other 1 at home, I am not sure that would be enough, as tight and all as the group could become.

Listen it's all about opinions. For us not to lose a game snatch one win at home against our rivals and draw the rest, while doing the double over Georgia and moldova would give us 20 points.

Wales d d 2
Serbia w d 4
Austria d d 2
Georgia w w 6
Moldova w w 6
20 pts.

Austria quite frankly have a stinker of a start. After the disaster of the Euro campaign, they've to go to Tblisi and win, then they host Wales and visit Beograd in the Oct double-header. Regardless of how they've done, I'm happy to go to Vienna and come away with a point at the end of this year. If Austria aren't careful, they could be out of contention by the time 2017 rolls around - just look at how tough it was for us after Euro 2012, despite us not really having a swinging chance in 2012, Austria had a nice group this time round.

I decided to have a look back to see how implausible it would be for us to remain unbeaten and not make the top two.

Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a World qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

**DeLorean** · 17/07/2016, 11:48 AM

I'd be surprised of any team remained unbeaten in this group to be honest, and pleasantly shocked if we did.

**geysir** · 19/07/2016, 12:34 AM

In our 2016 qual group both Poland and Scotland came into it very much improved after awful efforts to qualify for wc 2014. Form is an unknown quantity until the campaign starts.
Atm, our qualifying prospects are grim but things can change radically in the order of things.

Minus
Traditionally we are sh�te v Austria.
Georgia are well overdue a result against us, somehow there was a mix up last time and they ambushed Scotland instead.

Plus
Wales are better than us but they're local, so 2 draws is not fantasy.
Serbia, a win and a draw is viable
No team will run away with this group, the top 2 teams Wales and Austria will both drop points aplenty.

**Charlie Darwin** · 19/07/2016, 12:47 AM

Traditionally we're ****e against Austria, but even at our worst point in years we should have beaten them at home. They're nothing special at all.

**DeLorean** · 19/07/2016, 7:59 AM

How were they so impressive in qualification though? I know the obvious answer - Sweden being no great shakes and Russia being awful etc., but 28 points out of 30 is still exceptionally good, especially for a non-powerhouse. Nine wins in a row, including victories in Montenegro, Sweden and Russia is stuff we could only dream about, we're simply incapable of putting that kind of a run together, even in our best periods.

I can't help but feel that things just didn't work out for them in France, if they had managed to force that winner against Iceland, which looked likely enough, who knows what they could have went on to do, especially when you consider what Portugal achieved after struggling in the same group. It will be very interesting to see how they react in this campaign.

**Stuttgart88** · 19/07/2016, 8:25 AM

The Euros aren't the benchmark really. They had a stinker of a first game against Hungary where nothing went right. The first goal was always going to win that game and they might just as easily have got it as Hungary. That loss made Iceland a must-win, hence the "every man forward" approach late in the game that cost them a goal.

They're clearly a very accomplished qualifying side and I'd fancy them to do well again.

I think lots of points will be dropped among the 4 teams.

**paul_oshea** · 19/07/2016, 9:49 AM

Originally Posted by Kingdom

Listen it's all about opinions. For us not to lose a game snatch one win at home against our rivals and draw the rest, while doing the double over Georgia and moldova would give us 20 points.

Wales d d 2
Serbia w d 4
Austria d d 2
Georgia w w 6
Moldova w w 6
20 pts.

Austria quite frankly have a stinker of a start. After the disaster of the Euro campaign, they've to go to Tblisi and win, then they host Wales and visit Beograd in the Oct double-header. Regardless of how they've done, I'm happy to go to Vienna and come away with a point at the end of this year. If Austria aren't careful, they could be out of contention by the time 2017 rolls around - just look at how tough it was for us after Euro 2012, despite us not really having a swinging chance in 2012, Austria had a nice group this time round.

I decided to have a look back to see how implausible it would be for us to remain unbeaten and not make the top two.

Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a World qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

Whats the difference between these two?
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.

**DeLorean** · 19/07/2016, 9:53 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Whats the difference between these two?

The answer, seemingly.

**DeLorean** · 19/07/2016, 9:55 AM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I think lots of points will be dropped among the 4 teams.

I would think so too. That said, if I was told now that one team is going to run away with the group I would really expect it to be Austria.

**pineapple stu** · 19/07/2016, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Whats the difference between these two?
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.

There was also no Euros in 2006 -

Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

I also don't think many teams at all have gone unbeaten in the last 18 years.

I think the whole thing should actually read -

Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten? 0
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a World Cup qualifying group after remaining unbeaten? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a World Cup qualifying group after losing one game? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

That said, I think any notion of going unbeaten through this group is fanciful.