When the euro's expand to 24?

[DannyInvincible]

Every campaign, we complain that we don't do things the easy way and we make life hard for ourselves, then when things begin to look just a little bit easier for us, people complain that it isn't hard enough.

Some people seem to enjoy running up a hill all the time.

To further delve into metaphor, the existence of a pleasure-pain dichotomy is essential to the human experience of euphoria. There is, by its essence, no pleasure without pain. Running down a hill all the time will eventually lose its novelty too. We'll no longer be able to experience the special joy associated with qualification if we don't have the recurring pain of non-qualification with which to contrast it. Thus, the once-rare and celebrated feat/spectacle/surprise of qualification becomes a devalued, regular and much-less-exciting likelihood/expectation.

Edit: Obviously, the reality won't be so black and white, but you get the drift; the fact that qualification will be made significantly easier and our chances of realising it will increase massively will take the lustre off the process somewhat. Personally-speaking, anyway...

[legendz]

Everyone's getting ahead of themselves. We qualify for or first euro's since '88 and we're expected to finish top two no problems in the next qualifiers. We'll be doing well to make the top 2 in our next qualifying group for WC '14.

[SwanVsDalton]

So do you want the tournament to stay at 16 or go to 24? I am not predicting a doomsday scenario if it does go to 24, but just think the current system is not broken, so why the need to fix it?

I can see the good points/bad points in both. What can't see is a major disadvantage in one over the other.

Of the teams you have mentioned, Slovakia as we know ourselves are no great shakes, Romania are not nearly the team they once were and have really fallen into middle tier mediocrity in the last few years. Scotland, can't score goals and really have done pretty abysmally in their last two groups where a playoff in both groups was seriously attainable. Turkey? Another team in decline, got a very low points total for a second placed team and if Guus Hiddink can not seem to generate some sort of competitiveness in them, you really have to wonder are they capable. Switzerland are in a transitionary phase under Ottmar Hitzfeld, this tournament came too soon, but I expect them to qualify outright for future competitions within the existing framework. Belguim, up and coming team, if the potential they have is unleashed, they are more than capable of qualifying in future for a 16 team tournament. As for Serbia and Slovenia, I have to wonder about their credentials when Estonia are beating them.

It's easy to take each team individually and pick holes - could do that with almost every team in the world. But relatively the quality of unqualified teams who just missed out are good enough to play next year - you could sub them for half a dozen qualified teams and the tournament next summer would be just as good (if not better).

For that reason I think the quality can be sustained with eight extra teams. The matches will still be good, the groups still fantastically competitive. It remains to be seen, but I don't see any reason to panic.

I think the above teams are healthy competition for us in terms of qualification, lets keep it like that. Qualification for the Euros will be greatly weakened if the gate to the Euros is widened and these teams stroll relatively easily in.

Qualification's a different argument but it still won't be relatively easy for all but the top seeds. Could be argued it's already fairly easy for those guys, but every group this year below the top one was cutthroat stuff.

The trend has been for teams to improve and close the gap with some of the perceived 'second tier' sides. With qualification a realistic prospect for more lesser teams, I expect that trend will continue.

Anyway can't say much more than that. No reason to change, sure, but it mean the change is going to be a disaster. The 2016 tournament (and qualification) has every chance of being a great.

I'm pretty sure significant numbers of fans and officials opposed the expansion from and eight for just the same reasons...not to mention the WM formation, the 4-2-4, the 4-4-2, the 4-3-3 etc

[French Toasht]

Totally objectively, I think the tournament would be better with 16 teams.

Amen.

As an Ireland fan, clearly we stand to benefit from such an expansion.

As a football purist, I think this expansion will diminish both the tournament and competitiveness in qualification.

[BonnieShels]

Everyone's getting ahead of themselves. We qualify for or first euro's since '88 and we're expected to finish top two no problems in the next qualifiers. We'll be doing well to make the top 2 in our next qualifying group for WC '14.

What an odd statement. We will of course have a tough time qualifying for the WC 2014 but that has nothing to do with the almost inevitable qualification for Euro 2016.

So let's take the qualifiers for 1992, if it were 16 teams we would have qualified. We didn't as it was 8.
A shambolic qualifying tournament saw one team withdrawing from the qualifiers after one game (East Germany), one team being disqualified after qualifying (Yugolavia) enabling the eventual winner, Denmark to qualify and another replacing a qualified team as the qualified team had dissolved (CIS replacing USSR).
Also the match between Albania and Spain was forfeited by Albania. Though Spain never received the customary 3-0 win. Though it would have been academic at that stage.
As there was seven groups in this case it makes sense to assume it would have been Sweden (hosts) plus top 2 in each group and the best third placed team which from my reckoning would have been Poland. (Once we remove the fifth place teams results from all 5 team groups)

In Euro96 we were beaten in a play-off by the Netherlands. If it were 24 teams we would have easily qualified.

Euro2000 saw us defeated on away goals in a play-off against the best ranked second place team who would finish 3rd at the succeeding World Cup.
Not to mention avoiding the concession either of Suker's goal in 90+1 in Zagreb or Stavrevski's equaliser in Skopje in the 90th minute we would have qualified automatically.

Euro2004 was a disastrous campaign which we don't need to be reminded of.
In a 24 team tournament we would have had Portugal qualifying automatically as hosts leaving 23 places taken up in the crudest way by 10 group winners, 10 group runners-up and the 3 best third teams we still wouldn't have qualified.
We were the sixth best team, however, we still wouldn't have qualified automatically on the basis of our results.

If I applied an arcane system of 1 Host, 10 Qualifiers as winners and the best 6 second places with the final 7 places via play-offs going to the 4 worst second placed teams and the 10 third-placed teams, we may have qualified but as you can see that would have been bull.


Euro 2008 saw the top two qualify automatically. Again we finished 3rd by some distance.
If there were 24 teams at this tournament we still wouldn't have qualified.

We have qualified for Euro 2012. Having also missed out in a play-off for WC2010 due to that goal I reckon there is enough evidence above plus our WC campaigns to hazard that we may qualify for subsequent Euros fairly regularly.

Or this was a complete waste of time. Meh.

[BonnieShels]

Amen.

As an Ireland fan, clearly we stand to benefit from such an expansion.

As a football purist, I think this expansion will diminish both the tournament and competitiveness in qualification.

Also with Stutts and Frenchy here. The Euros are actually perfect the way they are.

[SwanVsDalton]

Also with Stutts and Frenchy here. The Euros are actually perfect the way they are.

Why don't some of you guys just take the Euro's and MARRY it then?!

[BonnieShels]

Why don't some of you guys just take the Euro's and MARRY it then?!

Maybe we will. And you're not invited.

Must ask Alex Bruce for tips on marrying multiple cultures at the same time.

[SwanVsDalton]

Maybe we will. And you're not invited.

Must ask Alex Bruce for tips on marrying multiple cultures at the same time.

Fine. Me, Belgium, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey will have our own wedding. With those guests it'll be some booze up.

[BonnieShels]

Fine. Me, Belgium, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey will have our own wedding. With those guests it'll be some booze up.

Lord... all kinds of xenophobic ideas ruminating in my head!

[SwanVsDalton]

Lord... all kinds of xenophobic ideas ruminating in my head!

[mypost]

the fact that qualification will be made significantly easier and our chances of realising it will increase massively will take the lustre off the process somewhat. Personally-speaking, anyway...

I just want us to qualify, and as easily as possible. Qualifying for the finals is an achievement, no matter how it's done.

England failed to get out of an automatic-qualification group last time, there were instant resignations, wholesale recriminations, and national depression over there* as a result.

As great as the Estonia result was, the results in Russia and Slovakia were just as important in getting us to the finals imo. I was there last week. I hate playoffs, but it was a huge relief going into a game with such a large margin in our favour, in a game with a party atmosphere. I'd take that every time, over what we normally get.

*we enjoyed it though over here. It made the last finals much more bearable, without every break in play resulting in us having to find out "what's going on in the England squad".

[Charlie Darwin]

This isn't really that dramatic an expansion. We're going from slightly less than 1/3 teams going to slightly less than 1/2. The European Championships is still the most competitive tournament in the world. Sure everybody gets into the Copa America and that still threw up a load of surprises this year.

[nigel-harps1954]

For me, it's the joy and excitement of qualifying for the major finals, the anticipation and anxious wait for the finals to come. Heartache of the play-offs, the final group game to secure your place in the finals or in the play-offs. The whole country cheering the team on the get that far and then reach the final hurdle of the finals. This would all be lost if the competition expanded. If it became routine to qualify, almost too easy to qualify, then it simply wouldn't be worth watching.
I'd lose all joy in watching the qualifying campaign personally.
I say leave it as 16 teams. The tournament is perfect as it is. After all, you can't fix what isn't broken.

[DeLorean]

Just reading through a lot of the opposing views and there are obviously pros and cons on both sides. However, I have reached my decision...

The Europeans, in my opinion, get a seriously raw deal in terms of qualification for the World Cup, especially those in our own bracket (2nd-4th seeds). Qualification for the Euros, as it stands, isn't any easier. The Euros offering something more achievable can only be a good thing. I think it would be great for the likes of Estonia getting rewarded for their rare high level campaigns, as they probably won't be able to maintain it for very long. It's all very well and good being objective and saying the tournament might suffer as a result. We're Irish though, so there's no need to be objective. If we miss out narrowly for qualification for the World Cup, it'd be nice to have the Euros to fall back on with a degree of confidence. Proper footballing nations deserve to be involved in major tournaments from time to time, but the current formats make it too difficult for too many (and too easy for too many in the case of the WC!!).

[SwanVsDalton]

This isn't really that dramatic an expansion. We're going from slightly less than 1/3 teams going to slightly less than 1/2. The European Championships is still the most competitive tournament in the world. Sure everybody gets into the Copa America and that still threw up a load of surprises this year.

Agreed. With the teams in Europe I just don't think it'll make all that much difference, possibly aside from qualifying.

If it became routine to qualify, almost too easy to qualify, then it simply wouldn't be worth watching. I'd lose all joy in watching the qualifying campaign personally.

I just find that a bit bizarre tbh. We're Ireland - even if it's easier, even if we qualify more regularly, it won't actually be particularly easy. We never make things particularly easy.

As for losing all the joy - really? I'll always take joy from watching Ireland no matter what the circumstances. I mean if, by some odd chance, we became world beaters for a couple of decades and qualified for everything, would people be complaining we're not as exciting to support anymore?

After all, you can't fix what isn't broken.

It ain't broken but it could be pimped up!

[mypost]

I just find that a bit bizarre tbh. We're Ireland - even if it's easier, even if we qualify more regularly, it won't actually be particularly easy. We never make things particularly easy.

As for losing all the joy - really? I'll always take joy from watching Ireland no matter what the circumstances. I mean if, by some odd chance, we became world beaters for a couple of decades and qualified for everything, would people be complaining we're not as exciting to support anymore?

Some people would prefer us to get through the hard nail-biting way against Estonia rather than win 5-1, as evidenced by all the "I feel sorry for the Estonians" posts, but there you go. It was us against the world in that fixture, nobody else wanted Ireland to win, but class told in the end. I would love if we won like that (and more) every game, but as long as we win and get the results we need, I don't care. Results pay the bills, and we're knocking on the World Top 20 now. Onwards and upwards.

[nigel-harps1954]

Honestly, yes, I prefer the nail biting games, the tension, joy, frustration and everything that comes with it is what football is all about for me.
Maybe I'm just used to it growing up with Harps in play-offs, relegations, promotions, and all this sort of thing.

[pineapple stu]

The draw was made when it was, everyone had good notice when it was going to be. Wales were happy enough with their schedule at the time, and they didn't get enough results in that schedule to stay as 5th seeds. 20 years ago they were 4th seeds, they've spent most years since as 4th, 5th, and now 6th seeds. As long as they beat Scotland in the next qualifiers, they'll be happy with that.

None of which, as per usual, has any relevance to the point I made. Wales are better than you're making out, and dismissing them as sixth seed "for a reason" is stupid in the light of recent results.

[SwanVsDalton]

Honestly, yes, I prefer the nail biting games, the tension, joy, frustration and everything that comes with it is what football is all about for me.
Maybe I'm just used to it growing up with Harps in play-offs, relegations, promotions, and all this sort of thing.

Fair enough. Talking about Ireland, I still think there will be plenty of that in qualifying even if we've got a much better chance of getting through. We'll still be scoring late winners in Macedonia! Or conceding them...