Combined player stats for the entire 2022 Nations League campaign
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When you open that up to look at the full table it's fairly clear that it's massively skewed by Scotland and Ireland playing an Armenia side who were the weakest in League B by a mile. (And of course makes it even more amazing that Kenny somehow managed to set up a team that lost to them.)
So, what do we need to NOT get a Nations League playoff spot?
* We are 26th ranked team after the NL has finished
* 20 automatic qualifying spots available
* 12 NL playoff spots available, but the 4 C playooff spots are of no relevance for us so there are a max. 8 spots really (4 B spots and up to 4 A spots)
* But one of Belgium, Scotland or Norway (same group, all ranked above us in NL) won't qualify directly, so they'll take up a playoff spot. So that leaves 7 spots.
So that means as long as no more than 1(?) of the teams that are ranked worse than 26th qualify automatically we'll get a play off spot.
Sweden & Romania are both behind us but have plausible expectations to qualify outright (Sweden have Austria as their 2nd seed, Romania has Israel).
So, actually it's looking quite precarious that we have a NL play-off fall back option?
No more than two teams below us can qualify automatically. Also but less likely is if 6/9 teams ahead of us in League B qualify automatically we'd get a League B play off.
So is the near certainty that one of Scotland/Norway will take up a B playoff spot relevant?
Best case scenario in that group, would be for Scotland and Norway to take both automatic spots... leaving Spain in the Group A play off
But lets not get into the realms of fantasy just yet
Reality is, we're probably keeping an eye on Sweden, Romania, Turkey... wouldn't put my house on Finland qualifying either
Or... and this might not be beyond the realms of possibility.. if our old nemesis Georgia were to finish second in Group A ahead of Scotland and Norway... they'd cost us two potential places in a play off
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