Originally Posted by
Insidetherock
Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D
Group A
England (A1)
Czech Rep (B8)
Bulgaria (C6)
Montenegro (C10)
Kosovo (D1)
Likely qualifiers:
England
Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs
Group B
Portugal (A1)
Ukraine (B1)
Serbia (C1)
Lithuania (C15)
Luxembourg
Likely qualifiers:
Portugal
Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically
Group C
Netherlands (A1)
Germany (A11)
Northern Ireland (B12)
Estonia (C14)
Belarus (D1)
Likely qualifiers:
Netherlands
Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off
Group D
Switzerland (A1)
Denmark (B1)
Ireland (B11)
Georgia (D1)
Gibraltar
Likely qualifiers:
Switzerland
Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.
Group E
Croatia
Wales (B7)
Slovakia (B9)
Hungary (C7)
Azerbijan (D7)
Likely qualifiers:
Croatia
Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off
Group F
Spain
Sweden (B1)
Norway (C1)
Romania (C5)
Faroe Islands
Malta
Likely qualifiers:
Spain
Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.
Group G
Poland (A10)
Austria (B6)
Israel (C8)
Slovenia (C13)
Macedonia (D1)
Latvia
Likely qualifiers:
Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.
Group H
France
Iceland (A12)
Turkey (B10)
Albania (C12)
Moldova
Andorra
Likely Qualifiers:
France
Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.
Group I
Belguim
Russia (B5)
Scotland (C1)
Cyprus (C7)
Kazakhstan
San Marino
Likely qualifiers:
Belguim
Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs
Group J
Italy
Bosnia (B1)
Finland (C1)
Greece (C9)
Armenia
Lichtenstein
Likely qualifiers:
Italy
Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
My Call:
Direct qualifiers
England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia
Play off groups.
A
Iceland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Hungary
B
Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Ireland
C
Scotland
Norway
Finland
Bulgaria
D
Georgia
Macedonia
Kosovo
Belarus
Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey
However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.
The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.