Maybe, but we could be in with a chance of the strongest second placed side -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_U...d-placed_teams - the draw with Luxembourg will actually work in our favour here, because most other sides will lose six points against the weakest team in their group, but we'll only lose four.
The loss in Montenegro is going to be a bigger factor than that draw against Luxembourg, since most other second placed sides will have taken a minimum of four points against the second lowest ranked side on their group.