Originally Posted by
Eirambler
What I mean though is, when a poster says we should be heavily beaten by France because we're X number of points behind them in the ELO rankings, is that number taking account of the fact we're playing them at home?
In other words, if we were playing them away, would the points difference be higher? Because, if it wouldn't, the calculation is largely meaningless because it suggests we're equally as likely to lose to France in Dublin as we are in Paris or Marseille. The comparison between black and white in chess is a poor one, because statistically home advantage can be proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game.