Fair enough, but you said "it’s just not worth engaging you (Boom) any more on this" and then did the opposite. As far as the Kenny debate is concerned you've covered all bases. You're a winner no matter what happens. Congratulations.
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Actually, I said “I think it’s at the point where it’s just not worth engaging you any more on this”.
To address your little passive aggressive comment there at the end, I’m allowed to want a new manager and cheer for the current team and manager to do well/better. As far as I’m aware, they’re not mutually exclusive concepts. Sorry, I don’t know all the rules.
I think I'd like to go a bit farther on that question and look at what a plan of action would be for this campaign, because there are a couple of courses of action. Let's start by facing a couple of realities:
1. For Kenny sceptics, the reality is that he will start the next campaign, there's no point arguing he shouldn't at this point
2. For Kenny supporters, the reality is that it is very unlikely that we will qualify from the main group - the Scotland home game aside, the summer and autumn games have indicated that we are not prepared to take on the big boys we have been placed with. The only path I can see is that Ferguson and Obafemi strike up an instantly potent partnership, everybody else plays out of there skins in a system designed to play to this partnership's strengths, possibly combined with some sort of World Cup hangover/squad implosion hitting either France of Holland. But based on form/calibre, we're not coming first or second
But, of course, there is another path - as I noted in another post, depending on results, we could be participating in a winnable play-off mini-tournament in March 2024. So perhaps the main qualification group could be seen, in part at least, as preparation for that. And that brings up the question: should Kenny be allowed to be manager in that tournament, no matter what?
Or is there a circumstance whereby his position could be reconsidered part of the way through? For example a heavy defeat to France, a loss to Greece and a scraped victory at home to Gibraltar. Perhaps bring in a cost-effective gun-for-hire with a short-term contract?
I’ve said this on here before but I think weirdly, we’re more likely to qualify via the regular group than via the playoffs.
Basically 50/50 chance to make the playoff, depending on other results.
In general, the playoff is a 1 in 4. 25%
So that’d be 12.5% chance to qualify via playoff but decent chance a top team end up via the playoff (perhaps England or Italy don’t qualify from their group). We’re very likely to be in Path A. so that 12.5% probably goes down to maybe 8% chance.
And I reckon the chance of us qualifying directly via the group is about 10%
That's unfair and a disappointing comment. Balls.ie is not the greatest but journalist Gary Connaughton deserves respect. Boomshakalaka was rightly required to provide a source which he did - an article by Connaughton with direct and relevant quotes from Stephen Kenny. Yet you mock it.
I don't think there's so much "a circumstance", it's more that Kenny's removal it is the most likely circumstance.
By all accounts Roy Barrett going is seen as a major blow for Kenny, he was one of his main supporters within the FAI. The likes of Packie Bonner are no friends of Kenny in terms of his hopes of continuing in the job.
There have been reports of an approach to Carsley.
But nobody is going to want to take the job ahead of the start of this group and Carsley has the Under 21 finals coming up anyway.
My genuine guess is that Kenny is a dead man walking and he knows it. That's why he was doing things like bringing Hendrick on as a sub against Malta, he knows he can't take many more bullets at this stage. Right now it suits everyone for him to be there, he obviously wants to be manager and it's an impossible group so a hard sell to anyone else at the moment. So it makes sense to let Kenny be the fall guy and leave him in post to own the failure of another early exit in a group - just one more to add to the collection for him, that will be 5 in total I think. Some going in three years.
Once we're into the "building for the future" stage of the group - the only bit Kenny has ever been remotely competent in (i.e. when we're already out) he can be removed and replaced. Not with a short term "gun for hire" though, but with the next full time manager.
If we end up in the playoffs and Kenny is somehow still in post that means there has either been a massive upturn in performances that there has been no evidence of up to now, or there has been some kind of serious malfunction or financial catastrophe within the FAI.
I'm not sure why you made the comment about no point in engaging with me anymore. I answered all your questions clearly, backed up my opinion with data, provided you full quotes etc but you don't answer any of my questions, you won't or can't deal with the points I raised and then you demand more answers. It's the same in every thread when I challenge your opinion with facts. So the question should be, why should I continue to engage with you?
And like, I'm still going to answer your question because I always do. I'd be satisfied if we qualify or come close to qualifying. I've said this. It has been the criteria that we assess managers on for a long time now. I think I can guess what sort of reply you'll post.
If it goes similarly to what was outlined by samhaydenjr, then Kenny will be removed in June after the Greece away and Gibraltar games. Carsley has the u21 euros June/July. He could be appointed after that. Or if not, it would be the season to look for an available manager anyway.
We are ranked 26th based on nations league. Remove Germany as hosts and you get 25th.
We need no more than 3 teams from 26-55 qualifying in the 20 automatic squad qualifiers, judging by previous campaigns you’d probably expect 2 or 3. There’s a handful of obvious contenders: Sweden finishing ahead of Austria is an obvious one that comes to mind.
Genuinely boom, as asked by others above, curious how many points of a possible 24 would you consider a good total in the group?
16 points would be new four year contract for Kenny territory. I don't think that's realistic, 12 or 13 points would be a more realistic target.
But we're not at the stage where Kenny can be judged across the whole 8 games - he's living almost from window to window at this point. He'd probably need to have five or more points on the board to survive beyond June, especially looking at the games we have to play in September.
That's just what I think would be a good total. 18+ excellent, below 14 decent, below 12 average, below 10 poor. That's for any manager.
I'd actually have quite a bit of confidence of getting around 16 points and really giving this group a good go if it wasn't for Kenny. And when you look at our perilous position looking at the play off route, you can really see the damage his dreadful results are causing. Am I right in thinking that had we topped our Nation's League group, we would have been guaranteed a play off spot and we would have been second seeds for the Euro qualification draw?
That would involve taking six points from Greece, and four from the games with France and Holland.
In the 30 years and 15 qualifying campaigns I've been watching Ireland, we've only taken six points from the fourth seed four times (Cyprus 2002 and '10, Georgia '04, Macedonia '12) We've taken four points from a European heavyweight twice (Holland 2002, Germany '16).
It would be an utterly magnificent achievement if it did happen.
The away game against Greece will be played in the middle of June. Even for an evening kick-off the heat is likely to be fierce. If we're lucky the temperature will have dipped below 30°C for the second half.
Coming away from Athens with a point would be an excellent result.