Originally Posted by
Real ale Madrid
All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is
FF - 54 Seats (+7)
FG - 46 Seats (+1)
Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacent Currently
I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties
So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)
FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )
Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.