Originally Posted by
Eirambler
Are you sure about this - had a look at the group's there and it reads to me as though two wins definitely qualifies us, any dropped points though and we are probably gone.
Top 5 second place teams qualify - two wins leave us on 16 points in the second place table.
Group 2: France just need another win or 2 draws to finish ahead of us and they still have to play Liechtenstein, so they will beat us.
Group 3: Austria finish with two winnable games, but that would only get them to 15 points, so we would be ahead of them.
Group 4: This is quite an open group - Scotland and Croatia could both get 16 or more points, but only by winning the group. Because they play each other at least one will have to drop points, so second place can't get more than 15 points. In other words, if we win our two games we beat this group.
Group 5: Poland should win their last game v Latvia but this would only get them to 14. Two wins for us beats this group.
Group 6: North Macedonia look most likely to finish second here. Could also be Israel, but neither looks like earning enough points to qualify.
Group 7: it looks like Portugal will be out of reach for us in this group.
Group 8: A home win for Romania against already qualified Denmark should keep them ahead of us. Any slip up means we could finish ahead of them.
Group 9: Belgium need to win in Bosnia to get to 16 so this group is still in play.
We only need to finish ahead of four second placed teams to qualify. If we win the two games I reckon that definitely puts us ahead of Groups 3, 4, 5 and 6 meaning that we would qualify without needing any favours. Of course if we slip up in either game we can probably forget it barring a miracle sequence of results, but it does at least seem to be completely in our own hands at this stage.