Why do goalkeepers...

..go the wrong way in penalties at least 80% of the time. Ever since I sat and watched Shay Given go the wrong way for the 5 penalties against Spain in Korea in 2002, I have often wondered about this. They should have a 33% chance of going the right way (right, left, middle). In the 26(?) penalties in the Liverpool/Boro game, I think the keepers guessed correctly about 4 times. Do they commit themselves too early and/or buy the taker's feint in the other direction.

Yes, I am still traumatised by Shay in 2002.

Where did you get the 80% figure? The only study I've actually seen on the subject said the keepers pick the correct side around 43% of the time (though that doesn't mean they make a save).

I remember Soccernomics had a whole chapter dedicated to the science and how some clubs approach it - there was a great study about the 2008 CPL Final and how Edwin Van Der Sar figured out Chelsea's PK game and threw Anelka off for the last kick. I might try and dig it out.

I think the Liverpool v Middlesbrough game was an anomaly. Most of the shootouts I've seen at a high level recently have barely got to sudden death. Shay's ability to go the wrong way early is an entirely different thing.

Soccernomics doesn't actually go into detail on percentage of goalie decisions being correct, but more on what is generally the correct way to go. Which is essentially to dive to the kickers natural side.

I think the Drogs-IK Start shoot-out (10-11) from the UEFA Cup in 2006 was the longest I'd seen before that Liverpool-Middlesbrough one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORkj2AHp0A8

From reading around, I believe the highest-scoring shoot-out ever was Argentinos Juniors' 20-19 victory over Racing Club in November of 1988. All drawn Argentine league games went to penalties at the time and there were 44 kicks taken in total.

Is there anything to be said for a keeper selecting one side and sticking with it throughout the entirety of the shoot-out? The chances of saving at least one or two would surely be fairly high.

I enjoyed the Soccernomics chapter revering the penalty as a real-life example of game theory. This is a great passage:

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Originally Posted by Soccernomics

The issue of game theory behind the penalty was best put in "The Longest Penalty Ever", a short story by the Argentine writer Osvaldo Soriano. A match in the Argentine provinces has to be abandoned seconds before time when a bent referee, who has just awarded a penalty, is knocked out by an irate player. The league court decides that the last 20 seconds of the game – the penalty kick, in effect – will be played the next Sunday. That gives everyone a week to prepare for the penalty.

At dinner a few nights before the penalty, "Gato Díaz", the keeper who has to stop it, muses about the kicker:

"Constante kicks to the right."
"Always," said the president of the club.
"But he knows that I know."
"Then we're f*cked."
"Yeah, but I know that he knows," said el Gato.
"Then dive to the left and be ready," said someone at the table.
"No. He knows that I know that he knows," said Gato Díaz, and he got up to go to bed.

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By the way, here's an online copy of the book, for anyone interested: http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/1153131...nglandLose.doc

Well worth a read.

do they go the wrong way or are the sent the wrong way?

I've posted on here before about the tendency of commentators to say that a penalty-taker sent the keeper the wrong way, when I'm not sure the penalty taker did anything other than choose a side, which happened to be the opposite side that the keeper chose.

Then at other times I see penalties where the keeper goes the other way, and the penalty is basically in the centre of the other side of the goal. In these cases I wonder if the taker actually did something to send the keeper the wrong way, because otherwise he was taking a real risk with the penalty, but placing it so far away from the post.

That above quoted survey includes among its conclusions that keepers are too "action-orientated" when it comes to PK's, thinking its always better to go left or right than stay in the center (maybe out of a worry they'll be seen to be useless if the ball does go left or right?), when the evidence suggests they would save more kicks if they did exactly that.

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Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter

when it comes to PK's

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Burn it with fire!!!

On osarusan's point - Pete Sampras (different sport, I know) had a thing in training for improving his serve. He'd toss the ball up and wait for his coach to call a side. Only then would he serve to that side. It made him impossible to read because he could change the direction of the serve so late.

I know one of the fundamental rules of penalty taking is "pick a corner and stick with it", but I wonder could a similar trick work in football? So wait for the keeper to move, and be so adroit as to only then be able to pick your side?

I've read, in the case of someone like Ronaldo, the better kickers often don't know where they're going to place the ball until they kick it, with the idea of waiting until the last moment, trying to get the keeper to dive early or at least give an obvious sign of which side he is going to (hence the "stutter"). If a keeper can keep his nerve and stay still until the point of no return for the kicker, he has a much better chance of saving a shot from someone like Ronaldo.

I think it was in Soccernomics again that the highest praise was awarded to kickers like Ribery, who have apparently mastered a process of proper randomisation in their kick placement, making it genuinely impossible for goalkeepers to have a solid idea of where the ball is most likely to go.

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Originally Posted by osarusan

Then at other times I see penalties where the keeper goes the other way, and the penalty is basically in the centre of the other side of the goal. In these cases I wonder if the taker actually did something to send the keeper the wrong way, because otherwise he was taking a real risk with the penalty, but placing it so far away from the post.

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Inevitably, you'll hear the commentators laud it as a well-struck penalty when, in all likelihood, the keeper just went the wrong way by chance. If he'd chosen to go the right way, the ball would have been in a perfect position for him to make an easy save, so is it really fair to say it was a great kick?

I think Charles Aránguiz's penalty for Chile against Brazil in the World Cup second-round shoot-out was the best I've ever seen; it was composed, misleading and completely unsavable.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Inevitably, you'll hear the commentators laud it as a well-struck penalty when, in all likelihood, the keeper just went the wrong way by chance. If he'd chosen to go the right way, the ball would have been in a perfect position for him to make an easy save, so is it really fair to say it was a great kick?

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It's a great penalty if he actually did something to ensure/make it very likely that the keeper went the other way.

But then, if the taker wasn't doing anything to trick the keeper and was just picking a spot, then wouldn't be closer to the corner?

On Pineapple Stu's point, I think Balotelli does this, and until recently, had a perfect penalty record. Basically, if the keeper moves early, he's able to react and direct it the other way, and if the keeper doesn't move, he'll put it close enough to the post to make it too far away to get to.

And this is probably the most unsavable penalty ever.

Pfft.

Toe-bog.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Pfft.

Toe-bog.

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OK, how about this one?

More 'refined'?

I remember that one actually; I do like that.

Four years on, and it seems the guy is club-less. Cruel game at times.

Djinkin' Djibril Cisse.

Going back to one of NFB's comments earlier (not about PKs, ew), Bayern just got a dodgy enough looking penalty in CSKA. Keeper dives, Muller hits it just right of centre. Goal.

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Originally Posted by osarusan

It's a great penalty if he actually did something to ensure/make it very likely that the keeper went the other way.

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True, but this won't have been the case in all instances where the keeper just happens to choose the wrong way, although you've already covered that really. As close to the top corner as possible is my preferred target; where the keeper has no hope of getting near it. Leave nothing to chance. I have little time for the "Panenka". Its success relies far too heavily on what the kicker hopes the keeper will do and with the keeper simply having to do nothing to save it, it's just far too risky for me. A failed effort will only make the kicker look a complete fool.

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And this is probably the most unsavable penalty ever.

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Impressive. That's fairly similar to the Chilean one actually. I might post it again... Sure, why not? :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb1uAnsAqVM

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Originally Posted by osarusan

OK, how about this one?

More 'refined'?

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Was the keeper gesticulating to an official or someone there, as if he had been cheated?

As a goalkeeper, it's very simple, you pick which way and dive. If you're lucky, you've guessed the right way, if not, goal..or horrible miss by the taker, and in that case, relieved goalkeeper.

I used to wait until the last minute and watch the movements of the player before guessing, but it's near impossible to spring yourself far enough if it's a half decent struck penalty in that instance.

I've a decent success rate with penalties I'd reckon. Certainly though, more would go past me than I'd tend to save, it's just the reality of penalties. I'd worry about penalty takers if more were saved.

I'm the same, though in five-a-side, it's a lot easier obviously. Tend to react to the kick rather than guess. Though I'm a lot stronger diving to my right than my left.

Obviously at the top level, you can study your potential opponents in advance, which has to help.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Obviously at the top level, you can study your potential opponents in advance, which has to help.

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But they can study you too, so you're f*cked. :p