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Current standings
On the basis of the current European Qualifiers standings, the following teams would be involved in the play-offs:
Path A: Switzerland, Netherlands(H), Iceland, Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary(H)*
Path B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Austria, Wales, Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary(H)*
Path C: Scotland(H), Norway, Serbia, Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary(H)*
Path D: Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus
*In the current scenario, a draw would decide which of Bulgaria, Israel or Hungary would fill the empty slot in Path C, which would compete in Path B and which would go into Path A.
Scotland and Hungary hosts. They could draw between Bulgaria/Israel and put Hungary in Path B. That would separate the Hosts currently in the playoff positions but they mention a draw between all three instead.
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16.03 The UEFA administration conducts a draw to allocate teams to the different playoffs path, starting with UEFA Nations League D, subject to the following
conditions:
a. A group winner cannot form a path with a team from a higher-ranked league
in the overall UEFA Nations League rankings.
b. If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams
from the league in question must be formed.
c. Additional conditions may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA
Executive Committee, including seeding principles and the possibility of final
tournament host associations having to be drawn into different paths.