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I haven't read any detailed coverage, but the headlines slipping by in my feed reader are nearly all negative, saying Hilary's campaign is a sinking ship and she's on the cusp of pulling out. Is that an accurate assessment do you think? Last week it was going the other way, with the Obama pastor garbage, so I'm a bit surprised tbh. Did he turn that around or did Clinton shoot herself in the foot?
adam
A copy of my post in the Obama Pastor Thread.
Looks like it might be all over for Her
from the NY Times : As adamant as Mrs. Clinton appeared on Wednesday, several advisers said that how long she would stay in the race was an open question. Some top Clinton fund-raisers said that the campaign was all but over and suggested that she was simply buying time on Wednesday to determine if she could raise enough money and still win over superdelegates, the elected officials and party leaders who could essentially hand Mr. Obama the nomination.
She's hugely in debt and can only win through superdelegates. It's certainly not looking good for her
She's finished and has been for the past two months, it was always just the media trying to sell a few more papers by pumping her up as someone who might overturn the odds
She will stay in the race until a nominee is declared, presumably in August. Obama can't win the big states, and has had several opportunities to see her off, and has failed to do it. It's still too close to call.
Her determination to continue is increasingly funny in its desperation.
I think losing North Carolina so convincingly and only scraping Indiana has done her. All her gains and impetus from Pennsylvania and Ohio were obliterated by her defeat in North Carolina.
She.Is.Finished. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
She's only staying in the race to try and lose Obama the election in November so she can come back in 4 years time against McCain (if he's not dead or senile by then). Do you really think the Democratic Party are stupid enough to overturn the public vote and give the nomination to Hilary?
It's American politics. Anything can and does happen. Hillary is apparantly ahead of Obama in head-to-head polls against McCain, afaik. That will be taken into account as well, when the candidate is declared.Quote:
Originally Posted by jebus
Should McCain win this time, he will automatically contest the next election.
You don't really believe that do you?Quote:
Originally Posted by jebus
She's still in the race because she has more superdelegates, she's won the states that need to be won in a presidential election, and she scores better than Obama in head to head polls.
I think she will lose the Democratic nomination pretty soon, some analysts think she may concede within a couple of days. But I actually think she has the better chance of beating McCain in a presidential election. She just won't get that chance.
Yep I do. She thought it was agreed that she would be the Democratic nominee before the primaries started, and you could tell how startled she was by Obama's campaign at the beginning of January. She was arrogant enough to think that no one would stand in her way, and since then she has had various members of her team and her family attack Obama on his race and his past (he used drugs....wow), and had them spread lies to defame his character (he used to deal drugs, sure he's black and not rich, he must have). She has run a horrendously negative campaign since Obama blew her out of the water in the early primaries that has sought to undermine his creditability, rather than enhance her own.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
Since practically every political observer with a shred of intelligence has had her living on borrowed time in this election for the past 3 months, and since she has refused to listen to repeated calls from the Democratic hierarchy to stand down so they can focus their energies on November, I can only assume that she is staying in this to deplete Obama's funds and attack his character so that he is easy pickings for the Republicans come the election season. She's too intelligent not to realise what harm she is doing, and since she realises that America will be very unlikely to vote in a female pensioner in 8 years time as it's President she must realise that the election in 4 years time is her only chance of realising her ambition to become the first female president
She will stay until June. The DNC will then put pressure on one of the candidates to withdraw (almost certainly Clinton).
These are probably the same political observers who declared that Kerry won the election last time, while the vote was still going on. :D They've been writing Hillary off since she lost the first primary, and 4 months later, she's still in it. Obviously the democrat electorate know something the observers don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by jebus
Obama has overtaken Clinton regarding the number of superdelegates.
From the BBC
Quote:
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has overtaken his rival Hillary Clinton for the first time in endorsements from super-delegates.
Four super-delegates - party and elected officials - pledged to support Mr Obama, including two who previously supported Mrs Clinton.
Your just a fountain of bullet points aren't ya?...its hilarious :D Surprised you haven't mentioned the "disenfranchisement" of Florida and Michigan yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
One question though....why do you refer to the MINORITY of the popular vote as the "democrat electorate"? You give the impression that its the MAJORITY electorate.
The Clintons are wearing VERY thin on everyone over here now. This bullsh!t of coming out and saying "Obama can't win the white vote" is unbelievable TBH. Is she insinuating that the 31 states he's won so far are majority black? Obama could argue, but doesn't, that she can't win the under 35's and Blacks. And if CNN are to be believed Hillary carried Indiana on the back of the pensioner vote.
Everything she does just smacks of desparation, she's now loaned her own campaign a total $11.4 million dollars....I think that speaks volumes. She can't even manage her own campaign finances...how could she be trusted with managing the country's?
Seriously "mypost" you need to wake up and smell the coffee. She's behind in STATES, PLEDGED DELEGATES, SUPERDELEGATES, and the POPULAR VOTE. Do you think the DNC are going to strip all of that away from Obama and hand the nomination to Hillary? And before you spout yer "but the polls have her ahead of McCain" crap, the polls also had her 20-25 points ahead in Pennsylvania she won it by NINE. The polls had Obama ahead in New Hampshire - Clinton won it. So "mypost" don't be so naieve as to pay heed to polls....especially ones almost 6 months ahead of time - because 6 months ago Clinton was a shoe-in for the nomination, guess what? She's not gonna get it.
Personally both candidates are crap...but they are better than Grandpa McCain. Having said that, the more time I spend engrossed in this race the more apparent it becomes that Hillary is a VERY right wing leaning democrat....especially with regards to foreign policy, and the "gas tax holiday" idea she blatantly nicked off McCain. But despite being very obviously "right leaning" she pulls in LESS independents than Obama.
OK I take it back, "Billary" aren't behind in Superdelegates - they're ONE ahead after being ONE HUNDRED ahead in January:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/...rap/index.html
The US can't be compared in European terms as there are no left wing US candidates. We might think the Democrats are left but they just a lighter shade of right. I agree what you say about Clinton but then she has been cleaning up the rural, blue collar Democrat votes. I don't know if socialists exist in the US certainly not at nation level.Quote:
Originally Posted by dancinpants
having overdosed on CNN over the last 6months i find it very hard to disagree with any of this post and the majority of Jebus' post.Quote:
Originally Posted by dancinpants
Though i do think Obama could turn out to be a very good President.
There was a very funny skit on this last week on the Daily Show. Hilary has Obama exactly where she wants him now - leading. :D
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0602/uselection.html
Confused here. Hilary won the Puerto Rico primary. Isn't Puerto Rico an independent country, rather than an additional state?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pauro 76
No its a territory much like Guam, American Samoa etc.
They get a primary but yet they don't get to vote in the actual elections :rolleyes:
Watch what she does if her demands to be Vice President aren't accepted by Barack, she has been issuing thinly veiled threats to tear the democratic nomination apart since she knew she had lost, and she will do if her demands aren't met.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
Clinton won the popular vote, the swing states, carried by the blue rinse, the hispanics, and most of the recent primaries. She is also ahead of McCain in the polls.
Obama swept the black vote obviously, who make up just a quarter of the population, lost the popular vote, the swing states, and most of the recent primaries. The Democrats have had 2 Presidents in the last 30 years. And with him as their nominee, they'll be the ones holding primaries again in 4 years time.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ote_count.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by mypost
not according to that site, although I dont know how reliable it is.
Also, you have to factor in over 300,000 votes in Michigan where Obama's name wasnt on the ballot.
I agree with some of your other points though.
I think that choosing the person who best represents what your party stands for and choosing the person with the best chance of becoming president may not be the same thing in this case.
What does all that mean so??
Clinton didn't win the popular vote, Barack won the popular, the superdelegate and the majority of states, all Hilary won was the majority of the big states so please get your facts right before you come on talking about it. And Obama lost most of the recent primaries (not a clear majority either), but won a decisive victory in the majority of the primaries. As with the black vote you talk about, please. Spare me the racial nonsense, he also won the youth vote, the 'educated vote', the working white male vote. Hilary only clearly beat him in the hispanic vote and the over-45 woman vote. He's the better candidate and the party chose wisely.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Why do you think he won't win in November? He's clearly a better politician than McCain, and has the momentum now
There is no guarantee Obama will win & I don't see how it can be suggested he is a better politician than McCain. Obama has no experience worth talking about in terms of Presidential CV whereas McCain is heaped in military & Senate experience. Sure Obama makes great speeches & says all the right things but I think he may have a challenge proving he can deliver. Democrats have to win the big states & Obama won't take Florida - he needs to take some republican states to make up for that. Polls currently show Obama ahead but he is likely getting a post nomination boost so will be interesting to see what it shows in a couple of weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by jebus
Giving Obama the Presidency, would be akin to giving Staunton an international manager's job.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Not even the Yanks are THAT stupid.
Obama does speak better than Steve though.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Yeah but given your loose interpretation on facts listening to you is akin to asking Bertie for his definition of friendshipQuote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Pete, I'll respond to your point later on when I'm not in work
Forgive And Forget lads, Forgive And Forget.
Arf arf.
adam
BTW, mypost and jebus will both need to post links to documents that support their assertions above if they're going to continue making them. There won't be another warning about this, I'll just ban one or both of ye from the forum if it continues.
ktnxbye,
adam
Ahm, they gave Bush a 2nd term? And they might very well elect McCain to give themselves what would be in effect a 3rd term of Bush. Ahhh let the economic crises, mortgage crisis, heathcare crisis, energy crisis, foreign policy crises roll on. Yes, yanks ARE that stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Good point. As he said himself "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again." :DQuote:
Originally Posted by dancinpants
McCain is basically running an incumbent campaign which really should not offer him any hope but the US is very conservative.
Obama v McCain state by state breakdown
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
Click on the state and they will give you a breakdown of age, church, sex, etc. of votes. These have been widely reported in the media, I realise the need for having people support claims in current affairs, but when every proper news outlet is running them is there really a need? I have read that Obama was winning in the majority of voting demographs on CNN, BBC, and in the Guardian and the Times, anyone who has an interest in this election has surely done the same?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
:rolleyes:
what part of bombing iran is a good foreign policy plan for America? Yikes
Would an Obama/Clinton campaign do enough to topple Republicans?
My grandmother is convinced that the States will not have a black president but then she hasn't lived there since 1961, funnily enough in Chicago. Surely things have changed since then?
to the first question - defintely YES. Though Obama would do it on his own in my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by superfrank
In my opinion, If America is ready for a black nominee then they are ready for a black President. You dont realise just how in love the majority of Democarts are with this guy - and rightly so. The media seems to love him too. The work and sacrifices of Robert Kennedy, MLK and Jesse Jackson will not have been in vain.
His nomination only shows that the Democrats are ready for a black president, not all of America. It will only be seen in November if that is the case for the whole country.Quote:
Originally Posted by SkStu
I think he will probably win in November alright, as long as the debate isn't focussed on foreign policy.
Anecdotally apparently people even in the more liberal East coast have issues voting for black man. According to guy at work when speaking about people he knows living there.
I know probably only 50-60% of registered voters partake in the Presidential election but even less again vote in democratic primaries. Obama needs the black vote but does he risk being seen as "the black candidate" ?
CNN
Quote:
A majority of Democrats think Barack Obama should select Hillary Clinton as his running mate, according to a new national poll.
art.clinton.obama.file.ap.jpg
Most Democrats think Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, seen in a 2006 photo, should share the ticket.
Fifty-four percent of registered Democrats questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Friday think Obama should name his rival as his running mate; 43 percent disagreed.
Now that Hilary has bowed out without trying to take down the whole party I'll go on record and say that Obama will slaughter McCain in November. Watch what happens when these two go head to head in debates