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Not to sound arrogant cos I am a Bohs supporter. But I ran a simulation for the season based on various factors from manager, to squad, to finances and Bohs came out with a 95.6% chance of winning the league. 84.3% of winning the FAI Cup. I have been compiling data on the league for 5 seasons now.
I was objective and completely neutral with the inputs and although I did expect Bohs to be the team of the 2008 season, I really had no idea how much we would cream all and sundry.
i think you delete key is broke
ya derry were to do great also in 2007, just like dundalk were guaranteed favourites to walk the first divison:eek::D,
no guarantees in life,
Football is the only thing getting in the way :p
Is this a reference to the BSC.....?
Mmmmmmmmmmmmm . . . . . . . . . . . . nah!
Don't have the fire-power.
Only League Bohs are winning is Fantasy League. There gonna befighting to get in the top 5.
I see the Big Pub delusions is as strong as ever.
Down with this lot I say.
Ahy don't worry, you don't arrogant you do sound ................Quote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
(fill in the blanks time)
I'm going with deluded :)
Anywone else got a closer description???
How did you get year one broke, year two broke year three broke year four broke year five €1mm?? Are you sure it wasn't a magic 8ball you were using.
Boh_So_Good ;will bohs win all around them shake shake shake
Magic 8 ball; I am the magic eight ball and I cannot lie
Boh_So_Good; so will they win
Magic 8 ball. Shot me please!!!!!!
You'll find the bookies made similar calculations based on the variables of winning the league and came up with prices of 7/2 - 9/2 or to put another way 22% - 18%.
But I'm sure your assessments are nearer the mark...care to offer some odds against Drogheda winning the league? :)
:D:p:pQuote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
I'm sitting at my desk,as you do ,eating my morning cornflakes and then read this... I nearly choked with the laughter. you naughty little bohs boy you could have killed me !
Such arrogance from a Bohs fan...Bohs won't finish top four in my opinion, Drogheda and a rejuvenated Pats will battle it out for League honours, I predict Derry will lift the FAI Cup and that Cork won't feature as their manager won't "cut the mustard" with a huge budget!......predictions, predictions, all great craic..I love football!!....:D
so what would that be in the bookies:Quote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
1/20 for the league
3/20 for the cup.
sure bang a hundred quid on the double and you'd make a whopping €15.75!!!!!
you should be on paddy power as we speak making a fortune off all those crazy odds as wild as 7/2 for the league :eek:
You lot are going to put all your hopes on the shoulders of Jayo to bang in the goals for you and hope that the rest of the jigsaw falls into place. It ain't going to happen, he hasn't played properly since he left the Reds. He'll find it hard to find his scoring boots of yesteryear.
First thing I thought of as well :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Risteard
So that's the secret - Bohs are unbeatable against Aberdeen and Pats :(. Any other team... not so much.Quote:
Aberdeen are on a par with Pats
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
lol....... how accurate has your data been in the past ? you must have cleaned up in the bookies !
Did your model predict the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch as well?
A model is only as good as its assumptions.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
:confused::confused::eek:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
our assumption was that fenlon was a good manager who knew what he was doing !
Precisely!!! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by fanatic
I think Bohs will be in the Top 4 shake-up this year, but Drogs are still the team to beat. That comes from watching the game.;)
The model is ticking along nicely. One of the factors I worked in was my hypothesis was that Drogheda would experience the LOI version of Second Album Syndrome after finally winning the league. This is just what has happened.
The model currently predicts that Bohs will just clip Pats in the final table. So the massive final points tally for Bohs is looking iffy.
no **** sherlockQuote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
So your model is based on expert judgement rather than being statistically driven?Quote:
Originally Posted by Boh_So_Good
What probability did your model give for winning the League Cup then ? Or did you conveniently forget to add that in....
Are you sleeping with Pineapple Stu again.....?
So what are the percentages of Pat's winning the Cup then?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sniffer
And a fair few teams have found that pretty easy to achieve this season
My model had Portsmouth winning the Champions League in 2009, but they're not even in it so now I don't know what to believe?? Back to Chistianity I guess....*kicks away stone before slouching off, hands in pockets*
Ah come on, play fair. Everyone knows what percentage that is.Quote:
Originally Posted by lofty9
Can I have this post deleted?:pQuote:
Originally Posted by Sniffer
'sniffer by name.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Sniffer
:)
Genius:D
Have you got a prediction for next season ?
*Prepares all his money to go to bookies*
The simulation takes a couple of weeks to assemble and run. Mainly mundane data entry. I designed the model originally to run the numbers on the Global Warming Data that was suppose to prove the Global Warming scam invented by Al Gore and the US Neo-Cons (they are on the same side in case some of the slower foot.ie members haven't figured this out yet) backed up with nothing other than propaganda.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoss
I will get working for the 2009 season a month or so before the start of next season when I have all the criteria which drives the simulation.
I will make you all rich. You will lay rose petals at my feet.
I only have Rose Thorns :D
Well fair play for the bump!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sniffer
Fair play Bohs So Good. You got it more right than any Bohs fan could ever imagine.