The role of luck

I'm not for a second bemoaning bad luck for the appalling lack of results in this campaign - face it we've been shyte - but without being churlish all of our neighbouring countries have seemed to fare better than us lately in the luck department.

First up, fair play to Norn Iron, another really good win and regardless of what happens on Wednesday, a campaign to be proud of and I'm a bit jealous of the feel good factor they have. 13 goals for Healy - superb, no dispute.

But having gone ahead Denmark could have easily equalised. They would have against us! I had the TV on something else by the time Healy scored but I read Denmark hit the post, missed a chance and had an effort handled of the line.

Scotland: what is it they have that we don't? Not much other than a better central midfield.

A good start to a campaign is half the battle but what I saw on Saturday was a team that was lucky not to be 2 down, lucky to be level (equaliser was offiside) and McLeish had little complaint about the dodgy free kick that led to Italy's winner as Panucci missed an absolute sitter just a minute earlier. I think Scotland got the rub of the green in Paris - a pot shot and a nailbiting finish - where we may have got the same result with a bit of the same when we played there.

OK, they have better management (they have management!) and better attitude too but I can't help feel that their Italy game was very similar to our against France at home. Ultimately neither of us was good enough.

Wales: lucky penalty / absolute gift from McShane. Whichever it was - bit of both probably - it'd be nice if someone did that to us for a change! Given's saves - bar one - weren't that good. Waist high, 5 feet inside the post, time to react...

England: without even playing they got the waxiest of all outcomes!

I was watching the Norn Iron game and rooting for em (missus is from Tyrone and seeing as I make her go to some of our games I thought I might as well support em in return :) ) and Denmark had 3 chances in what seemed like a minute. The one that hit the post and came back to hit a defender on his knee/back only to roll just past the other post was excruciating. It seemed like it was in slow motion and even I nearly couldn't look. Fair play to em - their work rate especially Sammy Clingan puts our central MF players to shame. Healy was outstanding, as was Feeney.

I say you make your own luck though, our players don't have the mental toughness to hold onto a lead. They bottled it once again and I hope the next manager kicks em up the ****. I pity the man who has to manage this rabble.

Again on Saturday I knew we would give up an equaliser. We never appear to be in control of a game. Why did we drop back so deeply after we went 2-1 up in a game with nothing at stake? It happens all the time. We don't know how to close out a game. No luck involved. The Italians can almost always close out a game when they need to. But for a team that is World Champions they are dire at defending corner kicks. Poor state of world football at the moment.

The penalty as I have said was unlucky for you but Koumas had a blatant pen turned down earlier (and got booked for diving) so it goes both ways. Just as we were lucky to get the Cotterill pen you were lucky to avoid conceding one when Koumas was fouled.

Well Northern Ireland has had a fair bit of bad luck in their games as well - see Latvia and Iceland away. Denmark were value for a draw Saturday night but, as has been said many times before, luck usually balances itself out if a team reaches a consistent level of performances.

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Originally Posted by ifk101

Well Northern Ireland has had a fair bit of bad luck in their games as well - see Latvia and Iceland away. Denmark were value for a draw Saturday night but, as has been said many times before, luck usually balances itself out if a team reaches a consistent level of performances.

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and they will need luck of mamouth proportions to qualify on wednesday. strange though as i flicked back and forth to their game on Sat jackie fullerton (was it??) kept saying 'if they can hold on it will be winner takes all in spain on wednesday' when in fact they also need latvia to beat sweden and the swede's are at home!!

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Originally Posted by Cymro

The penalty as I have said was unlucky for you but Koumas had a blatant pen turned down earlier (and got booked for diving).

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The penalty decision against McShane was not unlucky. However if he was goalside of the attacker no penalty would have been given IMO. As for Koumas' yellow card, he was looking for a leg to fall over.

However, if we are talking about bad luck, Wales were very unlucky not to score more than once in the first half.

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Originally Posted by galwayhoop

and they will need luck of mamouth proportions to qualify on wednesday. strange though as i flicked back and forth to their game on Sat jackie fullerton (was it??) kept saying 'if they can hold on it will be winner takes all in spain on wednesday' when in fact they also need latvia to beat sweden and the swede's are at home!!

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Correct. Northern Ireland and Latvia must win if Northern Ireland is to qualify. Latvia defeated Sweden the last time the two teams met in a competitive fixture in Sweden (4 years ago) so it's not impossible that Latvia can win again. But I think you'll get very long odds on a Latvia/ Northern Ireland win double.

"You make your own luck in this game"

Were we lucky to beat San Marino? I didnt see it but most posters seemed to think so, however it could have been hyperbole to make a point.

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Originally Posted by Cymro

The penalty as I have said was unlucky for you but Koumas had a blatant pen turned down earlier (and got booked for diving) so it goes both ways. Just as we were lucky to get the Cotterill pen you were lucky to avoid conceding one when Koumas was fouled.

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Are you joking me? He was mid air before he even got near the leg he connected with and clearly dived into it. It was an utterly blatant dive and a fully deserved booking. The pen that was given was soft but MCShane got badly caught the wrong side. Thought it was six of one and half a dozen of teh other but have seen them given.

If you want to talk about bad decisions what about the foul that was given on your kepper when he jumped into his own defender with not an Irishman near him. No doubt that would have been a goal had the ref not lost the plot....

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Originally Posted by ifk101

The penalty decision against McShane was not unlucky. However if he was goalside of the attacker no penalty would have been given IMO. As for Koumas' yellow card, he was looking for a leg to fall over.

However, if we are talking about bad luck, Wales were very unlucky not to score more than once in the first half.

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I watched the replay of the Koumas yellow card. He didn't make any effort to get out of the way of the outstretched leg, but it was there nonetheless. I've seen pens given for a lot less.

The reason I said the Cotterill pen wasn't one was because the original foul was outside the box, and it's debateable as to whether there was any contact inside.

Well one of the reasons why the Republic of Ireland do so crap relatively speaking compared to other nations round these parts is this. Our away record is dire. As I have pointed out on another thread, we have beaten two decent teams in competitive games in 40 years !
Until we can do better than that we won't qualify. And as regards being unlucky what about Billy Bingham's Northern Ireland team in the Euro 1984 Qualification tournament.
They managed to beat West Germany home and away and still failed to qualify. How crap was that?

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Originally Posted by Cymro

The penalty as I have said was unlucky for you but Koumas had a blatant pen turned down earlier (and got booked for diving) so it goes both ways. Just as we were lucky to get the Cotterill pen you were lucky to avoid conceding one when Koumas was fouled.

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Through my very green tinted glasses I thought the Finnan foul was outside the box, but maybe not, vcan't remember. I also think there was an element of Pires vs Portsmouth about it - Koumas kind of made the contact happen though the leg was definitely outstretched. Biased opinion admittedly.

I stated on here ages ago that neither Scotland or NI would qualify. Nor will either team qualify for the next WC. They are both clapping themselves on the back and are bemoaning their luck(NI will not win in Spain on wednesday and Sweden will win at home any way) like we used to do pre-Charlton.

You also forgot to mention with the game at 1-1 in Israel, Russia hit the post with a couple of minutes to go and then the ball went up the other end and Israel scored in their only attack of the 2nd half having been battered by the Russians.

Norn Iron were blessed that the Danes couldn't put those 3 chances away in the last couple of minutes. Like us, they seemed to be doing their best to let the other side equalise in the last few minutes.

Scotland. I was amused at McLeish berating the ref for awarding the free kick to Italy in the last minute. No mention that the Scottish goal was offside and that Italy had a good goal ruled out for offside. Managers are so myopic.

Not since Jack's days have we had the steel to defend leads. We must have won a host of games 1-0 under Jack, including Stuttgart and New Jersey. It wasn't luck that cost us the draw on Saturday. Just poor defending.

We used up any bit of luck iwe had in beating San Marino in the 6th minute of injury time. If that hadnt of gone in our campaign was dead in its tracks after 5 games !!

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Originally Posted by Newryrep

We used up any bit of luck iwe had in beating San Marino in the 6th minute of injury time. If that hadnt of gone in our campaign was dead in its tracks after 5 games !!

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it pretty much was anyway

I believe luck takes you to the highest level, like when Man Utd and Liverpool won Champions Leagues it was luck that won them the final. But they came through twelve matches to get to that stage. Where we are I dont believe its luck that we are so bad.

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Originally Posted by Cymro

The penalty as I have said was unlucky for you but Koumas had a blatant pen turned down earlier (and got booked for diving) so it goes both ways. Just as we were lucky to get the Cotterill pen you were lucky to avoid conceding one when Koumas was fouled.

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admittedly there was more to finnans attempted tackle than the ref thought but pens are awarded for fouls inside the box not outside. the "collision" took place well outside

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I'm not for a second bemoaning bad luck for the appalling lack of results in this campaign - face it we've been shyte - but without being churlish all of our neighbouring countries have seemed to fare better than us lately in the luck department.

First up, fair play to Norn Iron, another really good win and regardless of what happens on Wednesday, a campaign to be proud of and I'm a bit jealous of the feel good factor they have. 13 goals for Healy - superb, no dispute.

But having gone ahead Denmark could have easily equalised. They would have against us! I had the TV on something else by the time Healy scored but I read Denmark hit the post, missed a chance and had an effort handled of the line.

Scotland: what is it they have that we don't? Not much other than a better central midfield.

A good start to a campaign is half the battle but what I saw on Saturday was a team that was lucky not to be 2 down, lucky to be level (equaliser was offiside) and McLeish had little complaint about the dodgy free kick that led to Italy's winner as Panucci missed an absolute sitter just a minute earlier. I think Scotland got the rub of the green in Paris - a pot shot and a nailbiting finish - where we may have got the same result with a bit of the same when we played there.

OK, they have better management (they have management!) and better attitude too but I can't help feel that their Italy game was very similar to our against France at home. Ultimately neither of us was good enough.

Wales: lucky penalty / absolute gift from McShane. Whichever it was - bit of both probably - it'd be nice if someone did that to us for a change! Given's saves - bar one - weren't that good. Waist high, 5 feet inside the post, time to react...

England: without even playing they got the waxiest of all outcomes!

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Re. NI v Denmark, you could make a case for saying the Danes were "unlucky" - hitting the post, handball etc.

However, you could make a greater case, statistically at least, for saying they were lucky it wasn't much worse for them. For example, we also hit the post, with their keeper beaten. And their (scrambled) goal came directly from a throw-in which clearly hit a Danish player last. We had 58% of Possession to their 42% (obviously!), nine corners to their four, committed 9 fouls to their 13 and had 12 shots to their 9. Most tellingly, 8 of our shots were on target, but only 2 of theirs - the goal and the handball. Above all, their keeper was excellent, far busier than ours.

As I read the game, the physically bigger Danes just edged the first half, but the conditions were so atrocious that it was actually a rather poor game, with neither team able to get their game together. (I've never seen a game played on so wet a pitch - apparently the Ref was instructed by a UEFA Official not to call it off, since there wasn't time for a replay!).

However, after it stopped raining around half time (after 7 hours solid!), the pitch began to dry. And although the Danes scored 5 minutes into the half, when we got an equaliser, there was only one team was ever going to win it. In fact, for all that they kept trying, had there been more time left, I think we'd have killed them off. And fair enough, they threw everything at us in the last 5 minutes, and had chances, but there is no way they deserved to get even a point (imo).

Anyhow, as luck goes, you can argue individual games or incidents all you like, but it evens itself out over the course of 12 games.

Far more relevant, imo, was the initial Draw. As such, Scotland had no luck whatever, drawing the two World Cup Finalists and a Quarter Finalist. NI's draw wasn't that much better, with teams ranked 10th, 16th and 18th in the world at the time.

By contrast, the ROI/Wales got a somewhat easier draw (i.e. each other! ;)), and England were as jammy as they always are!

I've got to have something to cling to, other than the blatantly obvious fact that we're not that good.

I'm trying to point out that late equalisers in Tel Aviv and Bratislava were shots the likes of which the players in question have probably never even come close to repeating. Once you earned the right to be a goal up away from home sometimes luck is the difference between holding on and not holding on - to an extent. If every error was punished in football then it'd be a very high scoring game, especially when we're playing anyway.

I can cite Albania at home and San Marino away as examples of when we actually scored late & "got away with it" on but if the possession and other stats you cite were critical then actually these were fully warranted wins.

For what it's worth I think Scotland's "success" was more illusory and Norn Iron's campaign was by far the best of the home countries and Ireland (or whatever you want to call us).

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

apparently the Ref was instructed by a UEFA Official not to call it off, since there wasn't time for a replay!).

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I heard on the radio that the protocol is to try and re-arrange for the Sunday but this is difficult in Northern ireland. True / not true?

Ouch!

Wasn't trying to be controversial. I thought I heard this at tea-time on 5 Live.

Please don't let "The Role of Luck" turn into another 50 pager!

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Re. NI v Denmark, you could make a case for saying the Danes were "unlucky" - hitting the post, handball etc.

However, you could make a greater case, statistically at least, for saying they were lucky it wasn't much worse for them. For example, we also hit the post, with their keeper beaten. And their (scrambled) goal came directly from a throw-in which clearly hit a Danish player last. We had 58% of Possession to their 42% (obviously!), nine corners to their four, committed 9 fouls to their 13 and had 12 shots to their 9. Most tellingly, 8 of our shots were on target, but only 2 of theirs - the goal and the handball. Above all, their keeper was excellent, far busier than ours.

As I read the game, the physically bigger Danes just edged the first half, but the conditions were so atrocious that it was actually a rather poor game, with neither team able to get their game together. (I've never seen a game played on so wet a pitch - apparently the Ref was instructed by a UEFA Official not to call it off, since there wasn't time for a replay!).

However, after it stopped raining around half time (after 7 hours solid!), the pitch began to dry. And although the Danes scored 5 minutes into the half, when we got an equaliser, there was only one team was ever going to win it. In fact, for all that they kept trying, had there been more time left, I think we'd have killed them off. And fair enough, they threw everything at us in the last 5 minutes, and had chances, but there is no way they deserved to get even a point (imo).

Anyhow, as luck goes, you can argue individual games or incidents all you like, but it evens itself out over the course of 12 games.

Far more relevant, imo, was the initial Draw. As such, Scotland had no luck whatever, drawing the two World Cup Finalists and a Quarter Finalist. NI's draw wasn't that much better, with teams ranked 10th, 16th and 18th in the world at the time.

By contrast, the ROI/Wales got a somewhat easier draw (i.e. each other! ;)), and England were as jammy as they always are!

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Actually agree with that post, Feeney was very unlucky with that shot off thw post which would have topped Healy's goal for me had it gone in.

However, much as we've been crap most of the campaign, you do seem to be forgetting that we also had the semi finalists of the last World Cup and also the semi finlaists of last European Championships in our group, a level that Spain, Denamrk and Sweden haven't been near in a while.......

Calling the NI group draw not much better then Scotland's is stretching credibility somewhat! ;)

The line is indeed fine, Russia hit the post in the 88th minute to go 2-1 up and put England out, ball down the other end, defender makes a howler and Israel win it to almost secure the English place in the line up. Couldn't believe it.

You make your own luck, but sometimes footie just does some damn strange things. Although I laugh to hear Fletcher today whine about the free to the Italians when the goal disallowed and the one Scot got were totally the wrong decision both times. Some people don't know when they are born.

I thought NI were worthy winners.

I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I heard on the radio that the protocol is to try and re-arrange for the Sunday but this is difficult in Northern ireland. True / not true?

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Afaik, there is a requirement that when games are postponed due to weather, it should be attempted to replay them within 24 hours.

However, I'm pretty sure that when Linfield originally purchased the land for Windsor 100-odd years ago, it came with a restrictive covenant preventing football (and other commercial activities?) being carried out on a Sunday. In fact, they may have bought the land from a local church, which would explain it?

Anyhow, whilst the IFA has an outdated Rule preventing Sunday football, they've ignored this in the past for away games (World Cups etc), but I doubt whether they could have forced Linfield to break a legal requirement.

In fact, I was told on good authority that the Ref was already reluctant to proceed by around 6 pm, but they were getting forecasts from the local Met Office every 15 minutes assuring him that the rain was going to ease anytime! (The forecast in the morning had been that the rain would pass over Belfast by mid-afternoon)

In fact, it didn't actually cease until around half-time (8.30 pm), having absolutely poured down non-stop from midday!

Tbh, whilst I thought the first half was a lottery, both sides will have wanted to get the game over with, since each had a slim chance of qualifying following a win at Windsor and I suspect they will have wanted the maximum rest before their final game on Wednesday. And as it turned out, the second half was noticeably better. For us, anyhow! ;)

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

Actually agree with that post, Feeney was very unlucky with that shot off thw post which would have topped Healy's goal for me had it gone in.

However, much as we've been crap most of the campaign, you do seem to be forgetting that we also had the semi finalists of the last World Cup and also the semi finlaists of last European Championships in our group, a level that Spain, Denamrk and Sweden haven't been near in a while.......

Calling the NI group draw not much better then Scotland's is stretching credibility somewhat! ;)

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Whilst acknowledging that your 3rd Seeding benefited you with the Draw, as is only proper (we were Seeded 6th!), nonetheless I'd still have swapped our draw for yours like a shot! In fact, I wouldn't mind drawing the same teams as you had in next week's WC2010 draw!

Germany may have been WC Semi-Finalists last time out, but they benefited from Home advantage, plus Klinnsmann's inspiration as manager. There is a strong case for saying that this is their weakest National team in years (Where are their superstars, other than Ballack? How to explain German clubs' relative failure in the Champions League in recent years compared with Italy, England and Spain?)

And many of the best Czech players are ageing or recently retired - I think that team could be in a gradual decline.

I take your point about the Scottish Group, mind - on reflection, it was considerably harder than ours, never mind yours or Englands.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.

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not to mention the appointment of staunton

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.

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Every team has injuries - it's just that those with the smallest squads feel it the most.

Yeah, but John O'shea was always fit. No justice...

from my viewpoint:

NI- lucky to hold on in last few mins with corners posts and handballs - even the co-commentator on the bbc was p1ssing himself laughing!!! but overall seemed to deserve their win.

Scotland- Very unlucky that the ref gave a free kick, i mean how on earth did he see that as a free for italy, it was either a scotish free or a throw in. however they had earlier been gifted a goal and the italians had one struck off by the same linesman. as i watched the game i felt the ref and his linesmen were total 'homers' for about 60 mins of the game. then they seemed to decide that they didn't want the scots to get anything and began to give decisions to the italians!!!

Ireland- we were just pure sh1te in this campaign if the truth be told!!!

Eng- even that woman from limerick who won the euro millions would think that shower are lucky!!!