Morning Ireland exit poll
FF 41.6
FG 26.3
Lab 9.9
PD 2.6
Greens 4.8
SF 7.3
Ind 7.5
Five more years.
The people have spoken lads.
And they're thick ****ing stupid.
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Morning Ireland exit poll
FF 41.6
FG 26.3
Lab 9.9
PD 2.6
Greens 4.8
SF 7.3
Ind 7.5
Five more years.
The people have spoken lads.
And they're thick ****ing stupid.
Sigh. Anyone want to buy a 5 bed house on the edge of Monaghan Town? I'm off to France 9 years earlier than planned.Quote:
Originally Posted by Risteard
In fairness, it has always been a case of the village selecting it's idiot. Many people I know back home would take the attitude that elections and politics are about betting and about entertainment. Few people seem to actually make decisions about politics, they just select the argument that they think their candidate makes that is closest to something they feel they can defend - Fianna Failures banging on about the economy, FG's claiming the policing thing, Labour pretending to be socilaist...
democracy, huh?
can we safely say enda kenny will bugger off now?
I remember rethinking whether democracy was the right way after Bush- Kerry but in the end i just think that campaigns should be regulated.
Each candidate should have the same amount of money for the election and limited posters.
GavinZac, he's fought a great campaign for FG.
This is a good result for them and they'd be better off with a bit of stability for a while.
I agree, but it won't happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Risteard
I wonder will that clown Deasy launch a leadership challenge.
The FG Cullen.
if, as people have been repeatedly stating, this election was a no brainer, surely the single greatest failure was that enda kenny neither behaved nor performed like a future taoiseach. his recycled contract with the italian people, his refusal to justify claims in simple language, his poor debate performance and his talking 'down' to the people with his 'i met biddy reilly one night' anecdotes. surely then, he has thrown away what was, apparently a won battle?Quote:
Originally Posted by Risteard
or perhaps it was only won in ye're heads.
The most amusing thing is that, based on the pre-election polls, approximately 1 in 10 people convinced themselves they absolutely, positively weren't going to vote for FF this time around........then promptly did.
Ruari Quinn being suitably cagey on Newstalk about Labours position now, although he almost uttered the expected "in the national interest" phrase.
Both on the same polling card. It wasn't a case of who I'd give my first preference, more a case of who was left after all the muppets were discounted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Risteard
Cullen's campaign, and he'll no doubt get in, was to lie low. The public concensus seemed to be that while he was an awful minister, he's the only candidate in Waterford to have a chance of being a minister again, so we'll vote for him.
And isn't that the problem with Irish politics too much parish pump politics and me feiners and not enough on policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by noby
I'd like to hear Labour say that if the numbers don't stack or only stack up to putting FF back in they'll go for a re-run.Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
That's effectively a spoiled vote then.Quote:
Originally Posted by noby
Early indications in Sligo/North Leitrim area are that 2 FF TD's and 1 FG will get in. Didn't think that would happen here tbh.
Out of curiosity, what were you expecting?Quote:
Originally Posted by sligoman
The FG guy was expected to top, instead he's coming 2nd. FF guy was expected 2nd and he's getting 1st and the other seat was expected to go to SF or another FG.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
I'd say there'll be some smugness in Bertie's victory speech tonight. Looking forward to seeing Labour cave in, in "the national interest" of course.
I know the exit poll was accurate the last time but anyone have an idea of just how far a result can swing from an exit poll?
Any chance of a rainbow at all on preferences?
Most professionally run polls carry a 2% margin of error.
I think they advertised 2.5% with that poll this morning. Almost 100% Labour will be in bed with FF by tonight.
Looks promising that my sig will come true. :D McDowell might be in trouble too.
Looks like that Liz O'Donnell will be the first major casualty...
if there is a PD meltown that at least will be some consolation if Lab decide to go in with Bertie..... however whilst the exit poll would seem to be very favorable for FF, they won't get a majority and if the PDs face meltdown and FG/Lab get more transfers than they historically got due to the pre-election agreement...then (big if I know) they might just swing it with the Greens... going to be a long but entertaing few days !!
Whilst the % vote in exit polls is generally quite accurate, how this translates into seats can swing hugely.
Still looks like FF-Labour the only viable option though.
Will Rabbitte step down to save his personal dignity though?
The PD collapse is the only positive I can see at the minute....
With Luscious Lucinda Creighton of FG looking like taking a seat in Dublin South East I wonder could we see a repeat of the famous 9 and a half day count?
I suspect its Ruari Quinn or McDowell that will lose out (heart says McDowell to go, head says Quinn).
Very interesting.
Heard the last seat in DSE is between McDowell and Gormley
I read on ireland.com that Ruairi Quinn has polled well. SF seem to be doing much worse than predicted and could lose seats in certain places.
Didn't Gormley take McDowell's seat 10 years ago after a long recount?Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Greens don't seem to be doing that well. Mayor of Galway not doing great. Talk that Dan Boyle may lose a seat in Cork SC. Possibly 2FF, 2FG, 1 Lab in Cork SC.
That's going to be interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
Howlin has kept a very low profile in the campaign. Perhaps waiting to take over from Rabitte if they go in with FF.
The tally's are flabbergasting. Who are these poeple voting for FF?
I've also heard loads of people were turned away from polling stations last night even though they brought passports.
Have signed up for text alerts on RTE for Cavan/Monaghan Constituency but nothing yet so must have no real news yet. Gonna check local radio stations website & c if they have anything.
Looks like usual suspects of SF Caomhaghin O'Caolain & FG Seymour Crawford are safe as is Brendan Smyth FF. Last seat a battle for other FF candidate Margaret Conlon who is not doing as well as expected.
If you aren't on the register it doesn't matter what you bring?Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Seems after the register being 400,000 over with duplicates and dead people last time around the "clean up" has disenfranchised thousands of legitimate voters this time around.
Greens don't seem to be doing well on first preference but if our mini poll is anything to go by (OK it's not) they should pick up a lot of transfers. Same with Labour.
Tallies so far Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data
Would have preferred FG/Lab, but the most important thing (from a basic human rights point of view) was getting rid of the PDs. We're always going to be at the mercy of one of the culchie populist parties until they institute IQ tests at polling stations, but the PDs and their toxic ideology are as big a threat to our society as militant republicanism. Any result that gets shot of them is a good result. The best we can hope for is an FF/Lab government with the justice and health portfolios awarded to Labour ministers.
Really disillusioned that a huge majority are still cosying up to lovable Bertie.
I can't believe his judgement has not been questioned on the appointments he made to his A team.
For me the disasters were
Martin in both Health & in Enterprise & Employment
O'Donoghue (moreso in Justice than in his more recent portfolio)
Cullen in Environment & Transport
Roche in Environment
Cowan in Finance (anybody see whats happened to inflation and interest rates since McCreevey got the red card?)
Hanafin in Education (specifically her shameful MIS-treatment of children with Autism)
Ahern in Foreign Affairs (okay maybe that's just because of the stink he kicked up because Dundalk won the play off...only:D)
I can't believe we are choosing the party of
Beverly Flynn, Denis Foley, Ivor Callely, Ray Burke, Padraig Flynn, Donie Cassidy Frank (how big is your property portfolio?) Fahey etc. etc.
(Oh and before FF supporters come back to say they've "expelled" Burke, Flynn and Foley -please spare me the cant - 41.6% in the exit poll suggests the gene pool is still in a very healthy state).
But we've made that choice it seems, and as I democrat I'll live with it, but I hate it. Bluff, bluster, builders money and blatant dishonesty are winning the day in my opinion. The majority disagree & I'll have to live with it, but I'm well sick about it.:(
Spot on, that about sums me up as well. If I can convince the wife to move away again we'll be offski asap. Unbelievable.Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTown
I'm not too sure. Its very early days and counting always goes on into a second day in DSE. Gormley usually does very well in transfers and McDowell I would imagine less so. Not sure on Quinn, his first prefs are fairly high but its too close to call at this stage.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
FF and FG safe as houses, which is noteworthy in the fact its two new relatively unknown candidates (Andrew and Creighton) against three relative big hitters who are struggling.
probably the people who are far better off than they were 15 years ago, and were not convinced, particularily by the last weeks debates, that Kenny and Rabitte would be able to do a better job.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
To think we laughed at the pathetic registration system in the US (e.g. Florida) :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Ironically Labour might get into government yet they will be seen as the big losers alongside in the PDs in the election. Looking like PDs getting blamed for everything bad in the government & FF getting all the praise.
IMO Labour failed to get the anti-government vote as voters did not believe they would stay away from FF. FG have picked up all the anti-government vote so whatever happens will be able to spin as success. If the Greens could get tough could become the major party on the left.
Another two factors are timing of the SSIA and a Thursday election.Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTown