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Lads, did anyone hear that we borrowed €500,000,000.00 this year … which is fair enough as the powers that be said that they thought we’d have to borrow €3,000,000,000.00 so it saved us borrowing €2.500,000,000.00 which is great yeah !! :eek:
I just wanna ask …. Why were they so far out in their estimation ??
I mean if they can get it that far wrong in our favour, how far wrong could they get it not in our favour, if you know what I mean ?? :eek:
Scary or what ?? :eek:
And these are the good times. What are we doing with all that public money?
Govs philosophy on spending seems to be throw money at the Health Service, see if that works, Hire more Civil Servants to administer the money and commission a report on how it was spent. Oh and we'll have another round of benchmarking while we are at it!!!
Theres going to be an awful landing when times get bad again!:eek:
There's an embargo on civil and public servant numbers (although they all seem happy to use what vacancies they can fill for more managers). In our case, this is delaying money making operations :rolleyes:
Part of the surplus is because of under spends by Government departments - the ministers should commission more computer systems.
The problem with the surplus is that the Government has over taxed - mainly on the regressive taxes that it doesn't index most of the time. A large proportion of this surplus is due to stamp duty, which iirc didn't get increased bands this year dispite a rising market. If you don't increase bands and rates with the relevant market inflation, it's effectively an increase in tax. Which is exactly what happened here.
Cowen not bothered, as it gives him more of an election war chest. Most of the population not bothered as they think it's alright that the Government can't budget correctly (once it's a surplus).
Not even sure that Cowen needs a huge war chest. The SSIA effect should buoy him up - I heard that the bulk of them will mature at the end of April '07.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Imagine the stock market will take a serious dip as the SSIAs invested in equities are cashed in.
PS Macy, FCUM had a crowd of 4,328 on Monday for their NorthWestern Counties League Division 2 match
Their estimatiosn were very far out last year too. If the Department of Finance can't estimate within a reasonable figure then what are they doing all year? I would have thought financial projections was one of the primary roles of that particular department?Quote:
Originally Posted by A face
Maybe they just hire outside consultants?
:rolleyes:
Aye, posted it in World Football. Sure interest will never last and they'll all go back to OT. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by REVIP
One thing for sure though, if the savings scheme bails them out of the next election, then the Irish people will be the laughing stock of Europe.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Was it not a very strong year on Tax returns and the continues and actually improved housing boom meant they received well in advance of what they thought ?
I really cant say anyone would have said 1 year ago that the housing market would still be preforming as well a it is. Last year there was talk of crashing or at best a soft landing yet in the past few weeks there is records being broke??
Mystic Meg doesnt do the Irish Budget :)
Would it be better for the lads to be over optimistic in every borrowings prediction??? As then you would have every opposition politician in the country acting like a 6 year old giving out we borrowed so much.
To be fair though, if anyone should know what is going on it should be the DoF .... that is what they are there for.Quote:
Originally Posted by higgins
I dont mind them being prudent, that is the golden rule but they were 83% out .... not 8.3% ... 83% ... that is unreal !! Does that not worry you at all ?? What if the dial was going the other way, it would be a crisis of biblical proportions ... that is what i'm worried about.
I think there's a bit of deliberate fiddling going on - i.e. estimate a humungous scary borrowing requirement and when it comes in at the low level you really thought it would be all along, then you look good to the dipstick electorate.
Stalin used to get up to much the same kind of carry-on, setting targets for the Five Year Plan then hey presto, they go and meet them in just three years.
Every so called expert in the country was predicting house market bubble bursting crap!! ... That has not happened and I really dont think just because they are the Department of Finance that they are any more of an expert then the experts from the financial institutions.
You think the economists in the finanace department are more clued in or something?
The only area you do have them on is not meeting the spending budgets they had but im not sure what % of the 2.5 million that was.
and just because they were 2.5million short on borrowing does not mean they could have easily been 2.5million extra in debt. It is not like that so you dont need to lose too much sleep over it :)
Won't that be the tail end of them? I would have thought the majority of people got in at the start, which mature in April of this year?Quote:
Originally Posted by REVIP
Actually, no they didn't. Many pundits suggested that the housing bubble would burst - and many more rubbished those opinions - however most economists were very careful about what they said, most saying that it would flatten, steadily. Now some of them are they're saying that it's going to flatten suddenly, or burst completely; and not just in Ireland, but worldwide.Quote:
Originally Posted by higgins
Gov.ie has a lot to answer for here, they've made no attempt to cool the market, in fact it appears that they don't even have plans to do so. If they don't do something soon, I fail to see how the bubble can't burst. It just can't continue at the current rate unless something happens to cool the market; it's not economically feasible.
adam
Most people did purchase in the last weeks of them (me included - I was the last week of them!). Just lazy. Also there was a lot of debate about which type to go for at the time - equity or savings based.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Shabby
I would guess a lot of people got in at the start of the SSIAs & then a big chunk at the end.
In any other country a housing crash would be obvious but we seem to live in different housing planet from every other country.
I think owning a home now has nothing to do with paying less in mortgage than rent or anything like that & has become emotive non-financial decision. As long as even 5-10% rise in prices per year that will fuel itself as can justify buying becuase value is increasing. Its strange however the way 1st time buyer prices increasing more than the increase in wages so i've no idea how far that can go. I presume average 1st time buyer price now multiple of 8-10 times salaries?
Or 8-10 times further away from their work?Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
I heard one fund manager on the radio suggesting that something like 60% of the SSIAs with his firm would mature in the final month of the scheme.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Shabby
Maybe the best strategy at the end would be to take your cash and buy up equities at artificially depressed prices.
No go on holiday, buy a car and vote FF. That's the reasoning behind the scheme isn't it? :DQuote:
Originally Posted by REVIP
Pretty much ..... everything is rosey in the garden, carefree Ireland of today !! :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Yes I think read that 50% of the SSIA were dont in the last few months but you can get a month by month breakdown somewhere on the web, I forget where.
I guess it wont stop until the bank begin to refuse people the credit they need to make that puchase ??? How far will the banks go?... They are lending people more and more year on year and as its silly money at this stage for a house (ie 10 times your salary etc) then people just take what they can get.
I dont think many people buy a house now with a view to paying it all off. Its more of a money making exercise with a one step on the ladder attitude and so on. When you think the average person on the average wage buying an average house in dublin needs to work 6 or 7 years (is it about that?) without spending a cent on anything else just to buy a house you would wonder who actually stops to think now?
If the banks give the credit then buyers will keep going in my opinion until its no longer financially possible.
Banks have no problem reanting your property back to you when you cant keep up, its happening more and more now !!Quote:
Originally Posted by higgins
FF are doing nothing about it.
If definitely seems have chenged in last 3 years. Some banks were still sticking to the multiples of salary qualifier but thats gone out the window now in favour of percentage of income. Banks don't care too much about people renegating on payments as can take back the property which again isn't a problem unless big drop in property values.Quote:
Originally Posted by higgins
I was a poor student at the time they opened and like all my friends I opened mine at the end to get one less year of poor student donations and one extra year of donations at the top ammount.
I dont think its in the best interest of the banks to lend crazy amounts just because they can take the house back?
As mentioned a drop in house values then the houses they have are not worth as much but I suppose they have then insured against the value they gave the buyer at the time? They make the money off the interest on the loan, they want you to have this loan as long as possible which is why they try make it realistic for you to pay back.
They are also already up at the 35 year long mortgages now so cant really push that further either.