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Maybe not call it an election thread just yet but whatever this is it could use a thread of it's own. An election seems more a matter of when than if though.
I'm looking forward to the huge surprise that'll be Fianna Fáil getting back into government..
I think it could be terribly damaging for FF/FG if there isn't an election. If Fitzgerald goes and claims some "for the good of the country" tripe it's going to look a lot like this whole thing has been orchestrated choreography to get her out the door without either FF or FG losing face to SF. It will play right into the attacks on Varadkar that he is all spin and bull****.
SF can turn this into a no-lose situation if they have someone touring the studios saying that is what is actually going on and that they don't think there will be an election.
It would be an absolute f**king disgrace if there's a election.
It would. But it would also be an absolute f**king disgrace if there isn't a election.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fly
There are only 3 possibilites here
1. She stays on despite what she has done. There is an election the electorate don't want. Not going to end well for those responsible
2. She stays, but there isn't an election after FF & FG cook up a deal between themselves. An obviously disgraceful situation given what she has done
3. She resigns, and there isn't an election. This is the only scenario which could be considered honourable. For that reason i would consider it the most likely, but it can be made to look like a stitch up between FF & FG by the opposition
Quite the situation they find themselves in
An absolute f**king disgrace if there isn't?Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
The government is in the midst of some of the most important negotiations in the history of the state!
The negotiations can wait until January. The British stalled everything for 8 weeks to have an election. They don't get to complain about Ireland doing the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fly
In any event Ireland's position won't change no matter who is elected.
I dont think an election would change much, perhaps FG would get slightly more Td's at the expense of some of the hopeless Independents, but that would be about it. SF have peaked at the last election and FF not a huge change under Martin.
As for Brexit and the border story, i just dont get it at all. Here I can walk to France in ten minutes, and also be in Germany in under 20, no manned border, whats the big deal? Just SF stoking fear in people.
All major parties in Ireland profess to oppose the introduction of a hard border (although I'm not convinced the DUP are sincere considering they're incompatibly pushing for a hard Brexit). Most major parties - including FG, FF, the SDLP and Alliance, for example - effectively wish to keep the border invisible and have been expressing serious concerns with the contradictory Tory/DUP plans. (I haven't been following the UUP's thoughts on the matter in any great detail; are they even still relevant?)Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
This isn't a SF issue; it's a national issue. And if it really wasn't a big deal, then why can't the UK government just provide the written guarantee for which Varadkar has asked? That's pretty much proof that the Brits have no intention of giving priority to protecting the invisible, open border, as it is at present.
Switzerland, although not a member of the EU, is a member of the Schengen Area. Ireland and the UK aren't members of Schengen, so it's not quite like for like.
I was watching last Thursday's The View on BBC iPlayer earlier and they had Peter Lilley, a former Tory MP, on talking about the border and Brexit. The thinking within Tory quarters in the UK, according to Lilley, is that FG are being firm on the border matter because they're "gearing up for an election" and are "competing with Sinn Féin for Irish unity votes", or that's at least how Lilley tried to trivialise and downplay the seriousness of the border concerns. He's either delusional or being disingenuous; the current stance has been the Irish government's position for months now - serious talk of a general election before Christmas only arose over the past week or so - and, besides, FG are hardly worried about losing votes to SF, nor have they ever been interested in appealing to the SF/pro-unity demographic. FG have always been smugly content with partition.
All parties in Ireland are virtually the same these days, sure they pretend they are left or right but they all seem to end up with the same policies. But SF seem to be really pushing big time, its something for them to remain relevant since they have feck all anything else to offer....especially up northQuote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
A national issue, nah I know many who are bored with this topic now. The housing crises and the state of the health service are two topics that are way more important for many......as can be seen in the polls as well.
Yes Switzerland are in the Schengen Area but its still a border, that's very easy to pass and hardly noticeable. Does Ireland n the UK not have some special travel relationship? I remember years ago you could get to England without even bringing a passport, or am i wrong there? I just dont think its in anyone's benefit to have a hard border, not for security or economic reasons, so I dont get the fear about it.
The conservatives probably dont want to sign the document cause they are playing hardball with everyone. Just look at the recent animals rights bill. If it wasnt an EU bill, then they would have pass it, but they didnt, just to annoy the EU bureaucrats. Yes they are c£unts.
Fg are in competition with SF for votes, in a tight election every vote does count, and its not like SF have radically different policies to FF.
Coincidentally I am crossing the border today to get some supplies for the baby, in Germany. It is dead cheap, much cheaper to Switzerland, but also you can claim your tax back at the border. Something perhaps that could happen in the Irish border in the future? The places around the border here do be booming. And after 4 and a bit years i have only been stopped twice!:)
(edit: just back, got a rucksack full of baby food, the usual german beer pick up, some pizzas and cereal: minus all the tax i got back came to about 10 euros) Hopped into local swiss supermarket to buy the bread i like, and some swiss chocolate, two items that cost me about 4 euros! Love border shopping, really we should be positive and embrace it!)
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the people in the Irish border regions would be a bit less laid back about having a border there than people living at the Swiss/French/German border.
They are also typically more proficient in the production and use of improvised military equipment than The A-Team.
Some quick sums. There are approx 220 border crossings. To man a crossing with 2 people for 24 hours requires at least 6 staff. It will need at least 2 shifts to give those people a reasonable working week, which means 12 staff per crossing.
12 staff per crossing comes out at 2440 staff if every crossing only had 2 members of staff (which won't be enough).
At €25,000 per year that comes out at €61m a year in wages alone. That's before you buy a block of paper or put a uniform on anyone's back. There isn't going to be any change out of 100m per annum for hard border.
Closing roads isn't possible. History shows the locals can repair them quicker than they can be pulled up.
Not having 24 hour cover isn't possible. Anything that isn't manned 24/7 is going to be burnt to the ground (and rightly so imho)
A border must be avoided at all costs. The border region is already woefully neglected. It would be even more so, especially Donegal, if we were to be all but cut off from the rest of the Republic bar two miles of land in Leitrim.
There's nobody in the border region laid back about any sort of border. We're absolutely sh!teing ourselves at the prospect of a border.
A general election would be a total disaster. We'd end up with Fianna Fail back in power. That's almost a given at this stage.
Sinn Fein will lose votes after their admittance they'd double up with Fianna Fail in government.
Whatever happens, it's a total embarrassment.
But there is already a border, thats my point. Where does it say it has to be manned with security 24/7? Thats not going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
I also wouldn't say its a given that FF would be back in power.
Looking like there might not be an election going by the latest headlines.......which would be a bit embarrassing for M Martin
Yeah thats true, but with the terror attacks in France and Germany, you do see security rammed up a bit around those times, ie there are a few swiss police showing off their nice shiny guns at the border. Otherwise you only see them when FC Zurich come to town! lolQuote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
They just need to work out some bull**** compromise to help FF save a bit of face and abstain on Tuesday. A beefed up tribunal or something. It looks like a deal will be hammered out, else Leo would have gone to the Aras already, just to avoid the loss in the house tomorrow.
A total embarrassment for FF and SF. FG have played it well. Martin is about to run out of lives. He's just proven he's all fart and no ****e.Quote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
FF will get hammered in the next election. FG will get a Brexit negotiation bounce and will remind everyone of how FF/SF conspired to nearly ruin it by trying to have an election before Christmas.
That's all that's gonna happen. FF need to save face because they know that NOBODY wants an election before Christmas and they would have seen that locally in the clinics that everyone regards it as reckless. Couldn't have gone better for FG considering how it looked on ThursdayQuote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
News in the last hour might complicate things...Martin's hand may well be forced. Bizarre story, the way its unfolded.
I'd regard it as a national issue in the sense that it will impact upon the entire Irish economy; the detrimental economic effects won't merely be felt in the border region (where it will also cause daily practical nuisance as well as being politically and culturally incendiary) or by SF voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
You're correct. There's presently a Common Travel Area, which has existed for decades since 1923 (as disingenuous Tories keep reminding us), but the CTA has never existed with one state within the EU and the other without. When the CTA was established, the EU didn't exist, so both states were outside it simultaneously obviously. Both states joined what is now the EU together in 1973, so there was no impediment to the CTA continuing to exist as both states continued to share an identical status to one another. Brexit takes us into unprecedented territory.Quote:
Does Ireland n the UK not have some special travel relationship? I remember years ago you could get to England without even bringing a passport, or am i wrong there?
It's that what the Tories and the DUP are pushing for - removal of the north from the single market and customs union - conflict with their claims that they don't want a hard border and they can't and won't provide assurances that a hard border won't be an inevitable consequence of their stated intentions. For the DUP, flag-waving and showing themselves to be ultra-British takes priority over the real practical concerns presented by Brexit for the people in the north of Ireland (who, of course, voted to remain in the EU by a clear democratic majority, thus rendering the DUP's present obstinacy even more offensive). On a purely practical or rational level, it seems odd that anyone would oppose the granting of special status for economic purposes when the EU is prepared to permit it. Who wouldn't want special status along such lines? It means the region would be treated as unique and could enjoy the best of both worlds. It's not as if the constitutional status is going to change by virtue of the granting of special status.Quote:
I just dont think its in anyone's benefit to have a hard border, not for security or economic reasons, so I dont get the fear about it.
Didn't Switzerland adopt provisions that allow most of its industries (with the exception of its banking sector) to participate in the single market? Switzerland also has tariff-free access to the customs union as they accept free movement, are members of he Schengen Area and make contributions to the EU budget. The UK's situation post-Brexit will differ substantially from the present Swiss situation, judging by the declared intentions of the Tories.
Even if that was the case, FG have been taking this firmer stance on the border issue well before there was any talk of a possible election, so it's just conspiracy theory and is part of disingenuous Tory attempts to undermine or discredit genuine concerns in Ireland over their hard Brexit plans.Quote:
Fg are in competition with SF for votes, in a tight election every vote does count, and its not like SF have radically different policies to FF.
The border at present is a soft or invisible one. That is highly likely to change for the worse post-Brexit. We don't want that and definitely won't be embracing it. No good can come from a hardening of the border. Partition has hampered the development and prosperity of the border region enough as it is without adding further hardship, impediment and disruption to people's lives.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
BTTW talks of communities burning down the border posts. I don't consider myself particularly "hard-line" or whatever - I'd like to think I'm generally reasonable - but I'd similarly have no issue whatsoever with border communities disrupting the operation of border posts and removing any physical infrastructure forcibly imposed upon them if possible, just like how the same communities removed the British army's divisive and disruptive reinforced concrete blocks from border crossings on "unapproved roads" during the conflict. I'd defend those communities who sought to take such action. Brexit explicitly contravenes the Good Friday Agreement - in which a common EU dimension, upon which much of that agreed is implicitly based, is specifically mentioned - so there's very legitimate anger here. Force will be used and threatened to enforce this contravention. It shouldn't be allowed to happen.
That's not to say I would condone the threatening or taking of the lives of those staff manning border posts - I wouldn't and would strongly object to that - but I'm sure there are some - "dissident" republicans who have access to explosives and weaponry, perhaps - who would threaten to go further than simply causing infrastructural disruption and damage. All you need is a sniper waiting for an opportunity from the hills or fields around a remote border crossing, most of which are rural. An entire security (perhaps military) infrastructure (on top of the customs infrastructure) may well be required to protect against threats such as those I have outlined.
I think it was BBC's Newsnight who did a feature on the Irish border post-Brexit a while back and they were showing how the authorities manage things at the Norway-Sweden border, as if to suggest similar could be done here in Ireland. I was watching it with my mother and my brother; we all just laughed at the prospect of having these sophisticated, high-tech plazas with multiple raised-barrier gates, check-booths, CCTV and so forth in places like Killea, Bridgend and Muff, not to mention the crossings on the local back roads.
I'm in exactly the same place. Any attack on the staff would be totally wrong, but I'd be perfectly happy the support attacks on the infrastructure of a border, whether it was erected by the UK, EU, or ROI. I'd see a campaign of civil disobedience as inevitable and although I'm nowhere near the border to burn anything down I'll be perfectly prepared to go out of my way to cross the border at unapproved crossing etc to **** with their system if it comes to that. It is not acceptable and we will not tolerate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Well that took a turn with those new emails... gonna be interesting to wake up to the next stage tomorrow morning.
It is a national issue, yeah thats for sure, but I think some getting a bit bored now at the moment. Surely you know Danny that anything regarding the North can lose the attention span of a good few southerners. That was always the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
The Tories I am sure are pushing for that so they can set up their own customs unions. As I have said they want rid of anything to do with the EU, warts and all.
FG have, but thats on the advice of their leaders in the EU no doubt. Also the added incentive of hitting SF as well. At once stage Enda Kenny was going on about the hope for a United Ireland, unprecedented for a blueshirt. With Brexit this could happen, and be delivered by FG........what sweet justice that would be!!!
As I have said, I dont think much will change. You disagree. that's fine.
She's resigning. Election cancelled. Mince pies all round in Leinster House
No hard borderQuote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-36389898.html
well i never................:)
And FG riding high in the polls.
Now what are SF and their supporters going to moan about for the next few months.
A December election for FG might not have been so bad as it turns out. Maybe they'll pull the trigger in January?
Whilst the border guarantee is a welcome relief, that is the only concrete guarantee in the agreement text. It's pure fudge otherwise. The Tories and DUP are still giving conflicting messages and paint a different picture from the Irish government. The Tories and DUP are still claiming the UK will be making a break from the single market and customs union whilst the text agreed this morning talks about potential full alignment. You might as well stay operating within those arrangements if you're going to remain fully aligned to those arrangements. What's the practical difference?Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
So, the fact that the agreement commits to effectively calling off the hard Brexit project potentially in order to safeguard the soft border is proof of the incompatible nature of the Tory's previously stated aims. We're very fortunate the Irish government had a veto as that's what has forced the Tories to capitulate and seriously consider the border matter. The border was very much a tertiary concern otherwise and would not have been prioritised. It was barely mentioned in Britain until recent weeks and certainly didn't enter into the consciousness of the overwhelming majority of Brexit voters at the time of the referendum. The concerns of the Irish government, Sinn Féin, the SDLP, border region dwellers and others were valid, but those fears have now thankfully been dispelled somewhat. Let's see how the assurances are realised.
The text seems to commit the UK government to proposing special solutions for the north or rather paradoxically staying aligned to the single market and customs union if necessary to maintain a soft border, but can we be certain this will be the case if there is no overall trade deal and WTO rules take effect? Could a hard border still arise if there's no overall trade deal?
If the election had been called over the Fitzgerald sitch then the election would have been fought on that basis this bounce for Brexit would not have materialised how it has panned out. Giving it socks to the DUP has always got to be welcomed.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
Not a hope of us going in January.