Could we finally top a WCQ group?

I think the days of us being second best are over, here's how I predict it will pan out in the group

IRE v
Israel (H) W (A) D
Faroes (H) W (A) W
France (H) D
Swiss (H) W
Cyprus (A) W

FRA v
Cyprus (H) W (A) W
Swiss (H) W (A) D
Faroes (H) W
Israel (A) D
Ireland (A) D

SWI v
Cyprus (H) W (A) W
Ireland (A) L
Israel (H) W
France (H) D (A) L
Faroes (A) W

ISRAEL
Ireland (H) D (A) L
Faroes (H) W (A) W
Cyprus (A) W
France (H) D
Swiss (A) L


Final table
P W D L Pts
Ireland 10 6 4 0 22
France 10 5 5 0 20
Swiss 10 5 3 2 18
Israel 10 4 4 2 16

Thats seems very nice and all that , but I don't think trhe French will drop points in Basle. I think they'll give the Swizz a lesson in Basle. Not going on their most recent performances by the way :D

Which would mean that judging by your predictions we would tie the group. But I think this group will have a few twists & turns and I don't think we'll amass enough points to get one of the two automatic runners-up spots.

Israel are looking more and more like the biggest banana skin of the group, I wouldn't underestimate them at all, already taken points off France and the Swiss, could be that the team that does best out of the top 3 (ourselves, France and Switzerland) against them will top the group.

I reckon we could win it but it lies in winning our home games and getting a win in Tel Aviv.
France have only drawn to Israel at home and the Swiss onl;y managed to draw to Israel in Tel Aviv so it won't be easy but if we can do it it will give us a really good chance.
The other area is we can't get complaceant. I know everyone says Wednesday will be training but if we get to complaceant and end up with a draw we're in deep.
I know we won't but it's just somethuing we need to be careful of :D
We've drawn the two games we can afford to draw now lets keep up that atmosphere from Paris and win the rest of our qualifiers!
If we play like we did in PAris for the rest of this campaign then we might as well all book our plane tickets to Germany now! :D :ball:

Misguided as I may be, I firmly believe that, as well as the Israeli threat, the Faroe boys are going to be responsible for someone being very unhappy at the end of this campaign. Just hope its not us.

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Originally Posted by Bondvillain

Misguided as I may be, I firmly believe that, as well as the Israeli threat, the Faroe boys are going to be responsible for someone being very unhappy at the end of this campaign.

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They've already got their draw against Cyprus, that's enough for them!

I hope that it doesn't come down to the final match. "Beat Switzerland in Dublin to qualify for the playoffs, lose and your out" type of situation, as Switzerland seem to be our achilles heal. 3 games against them and 3 awful performances. I hope Ireland will get 5 or more against the Faroes, as it might come down to goal difference in the end..France have yet to play them at home and could come good, knocking in a rake of goals which could decide it.

I think it is pretty certain of it coming down to the
last match, the chances of us being more than three points
clear of the pack by then must be pretty slim to say the least.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I hope that it doesn't come down to the final match. "Beat Switzerland in Dublin to qualify for the playoffs, lose and your out" type of situation, as Switzerland seem to be our achilles heal. 3 games against them and 3 awful performances. I hope Ireland will get 5 or more against the Faroes, as it might come down to goal difference in the end..France have yet to play them at home and could come good, knocking in a rake of goals which could decide it.

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i don't think goal difference comes into it see below

From the FIFA site:-
To determine the 2 best 2ndplaced teams, the results against the teams of the same group in 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5thand 6thplace will be taken into consideration.

Yes I think it will come down to the last game too. I hope we are at least 1 point ahead of the swiss at that stage. Then they will have to win. Hopefully a draw wont be enough for us to come first because I fear we will play like we did in the last 3 games against them and probably lose.
Ideally we would come 1st if we win, second if we draw and 3rd if we lose. This would give us extra motivation to get some sweet revenge on the Swiss :) None of the remaining games will be easy but the 3 key games IMO are going to be Isreal away and France and the Swiss at home. If we can get 7 points out of those 3 games we should come out on top of the group.

We're in a good position allright but i'm taking nothing for granted at the moment.We have been in good positions before and slipped up and had to go through the dreaded playoffs when we should have been automatic qualifiers.This time I reckon we won't have to fear anyone in a playoff situation because over two legs we could beat just about any team in world football.It's there for the taking though and I can't wait for wednesday night now. :ball:

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Originally Posted by tarzan_bray

i don't think goal difference comes into it see below

From the FIFA site:-
To determine the 2 best 2ndplaced teams, the results against the teams of the same group in 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5thand 6thplace will be taken into consideration.

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No that's the criteria used to determine which two second placed teams will get automatic qualification. They can't compare the total points because some groups have 1 more team and the they will have played 2 extra games.

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Originally Posted by Irish_Praha

No that's the criteria used to determine which two second placed teams will get automatic qualification. They can't compare the total points because some groups have 1 more team and the they will have played 2 extra games.

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you are right of course, for our own individual group I'm pretty sure the placings come down to results against each other from 1st to 4th place and the minnows are disregarded so it wouldn't really matter if we beat Faroes only 1-0

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tarzan_bray

you are right of course, for our own individual group I'm pretty sure the placings come down to results against each other from 1st to 4th place and the minnows are disregarded so it wouldn't really matter if we beat Faroes only 1-0

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True, its a head to head situation first then goal difference if a tie but excluding goals against bottom two teams AFAIK

The next big test will be Israel away. Its going to be a really difficult fixture expecially as it falls at the end of March, with the likes of Keane, O'Shea, Miller and Duff all involved in Champions League. Hopefully we have a full strength squad when we travel there.

Goes to show how astute Kerr was in getting the fixtures exactly right, our 2 hardest and 2 easiest games first, followed by the 3rd hardest - away to Israel

In one way it would be great to come down to the last game against the swiss after the debacle last year and the improvement slightly this year would be great to finally do them over .. Can see Israel away been such a crunch game and the way the group is going a draw would look a good result out there.. In one sense hopefully the game might be moved to neutral venue if there is a bit of unrest in the country..

The only way the group will come down to goal difference is if we get the same result home and away against the team level on points. If we draw with Switzerland 0-0 and end up level we qualify because of our away goal.

Teams level on points in each first round group will be separated according to the following criteria:
a) Points obtained in matches between the teams in question.
b) Goal difference in matches between the teams in question.
c) Goals scored in matches between the teams in question.
d) Goal difference in all group matches.
e) Goals scored in all group matches.
f) Drawing of lots.

http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/tiebreakeffect.html

The games that really matter will be both France v Switz games, 2 draws would be great as 2 points vanish. And our away game to Israel is also huge, if we get a draw that takes the wind out of their sails.

As always either Cyrus or the Faroes can probably be expected to take a point at home from the Swiss or Ireland or France. The Faroes pitch is like the one in Saipan :) it's a funny old game...

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Originally Posted by tricky_colour

I think it is pretty certain of it coming down to the
last match, the chances of us being more than three points
clear of the pack by then must be pretty slim to say the least.

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You never know!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eirebhoy

The only way the group will come down to goal difference is if we get the same result home and away against the team level on points. If we draw with Switzerland 0-0 and end up level we qualify because of our away goal.

Teams level on points in each first round group will be separated according to the following criteria:
a) Points obtained in matches between the teams in question.
b) Goal difference in matches between the teams in question.
c) Goals scored in matches between the teams in question.
d) Goal difference in all group matches.
e) Goals scored in all group matches.
f) Drawing of lots.

http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/tiebreakeffect.html

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In some ways I prefered the old method, straight goal difference etc..
At least you could actually remember the rule with with out having
to see it actuallly written down, ad it is very rarely you actually do
see it written down. You must be pretty good with google to find
it, I doubt it is even on the official site!!

However I accepted the new method is probably fairer and it
probablly suits us because we don't usually really hammer the
minnow sides, ie by 5, 6 and 7 goals.

So I will stick with it, even if I have forgotten what it ws next week.

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Originally Posted by koneinc

You never know!

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True but even if we win all the other matches we might
still need a win in the remaining match for automatic qualification.

So its not really in our hands anyway.

I imagine there will be a few shock results before then anyway.

Long way to go!!