World Cup 2014 Group C Qualification Fixtures Meeting - Frankfurt 17/18 November 2011

Ok so I know we have the little matter of a Euro 2012 playoff aganst Estonia to occupy our minds at the moment but I thought I would flag the fixtures meeting for our World Cup group that is taking place in Frankfurt next Thursda (November 17/18 2011), if only to put people on notice for booking flights before they skyrocket in price in the aftermath of the fixtures meeting.

http://greenscene.me/2011/10/world-c...-for-november/

What strategy should the FAI be armed with for the meeting?

Do we want the big guns Germany and Sweden at the start, perhaps catch them on a Euro 2012 hangover (worked in WC 2002 group with Holland and Portugal but failed in Euro 2004 group losing both opening games to Russia and Switzerland; our Saipan hangover.)

Or do we want to start off against the minnows Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands? This worked for us in the WC 2010 group (kicking off against Georgia and Montenegro) and also in the Euro 2012 group, where we started against Armenia and Andorra.

It might be taken out of our hands like it was in this group. Ironically enough it was Armenia who protested about coming to Dublin on the June Weekend, which threw the fixtues out, and led to Uefa doing their thing via the seedings, which meant Armenia travelled to Dublin last.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

What strategy should the FAI be armed with for the meeting?
Do we want the big guns Germany and Sweden at the start, perhaps catch them on a Euro 2012 hangover (worked in WC 2002 group with Holland and Portugal but failed in Euro 2004 group losing both opening games to Russia and Switzerland; our Saipan hangover.)
Or do we want to start off against the minnows Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands? This worked for us in the WC 2010 group (kicking off against Georgia and Montenegro) and also in the Euro 2012 group, where we started against Armenia and Andorra.

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The 'hangover' tactic also worked for us in '98 v Croatia!
Its a tough one though. I remember being so optimistic for that Russia game in 2002 - after all, they had been pretty poor in the finals - but we were crushed. I'm now so used to us not being at a finals that we haven't had to consider our own hangovers for a while! But (please please please...) its something we should factor in for next Autumn!

I think our fixtures for the last two tournaments have started well - ie. get some points on the board. With hindsight a masterstroke to travel to Armenia early in the campaign. If we have to play any of the higher seeds in the first round of games then i'd rather play Germany. I think we can compete with them on a one-on-one basis, but over the course of a campaign i'd always back them to top a group. Their record speaks for itself, its formidable. I think we should be really focused on the Swedish (in particular) and Austrian games as they're going to be crucial. And the way it worked in this campaign - having Russia/Slovakia back to back both times - should be avoided; too much pressure over the course of 5 days.

Two more things - the Kazakh trip will be epic - so i'd suggest it should be a stand alone fixture? And do the Faroes still have to avoid the winter for their home games?

So how about something like:

Sept 2012 - Kazakh (h); Germany (a)
Oct 2012 - Austria (a); Faroes (h)
March 2013 - Sweden (h)
June 2013 - Kazakh (a)
Sept 2013 - Faroes (a); Austria (h)
Oct 2013 - Sweden (a); Germany (h)

Hmm, not sure about those last two fixtures, but i ran out of steam halfway through :p

We really are in for a very tough fixture list next campaign. I can't see us doing it, the best losing out in a play-off.

I'd take Sweden and Faroe Islands away first, Austria home and Germany away second. Get em out of the way and see what we're made of - if we hit 7-8 points, it'd be a pretty good start.

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Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

I'd take Sweden and Faroe Islands away first, Austria home and Germany away second. Get em out of the way and see what we're made of - if we hit 7-8 points, it'd be a pretty good start.

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I'm interested by your idea of 'getting them out of the way'. Does it make a difference? I just dont quite get your reasons (happy to hear them though!).
I'm keen to get the 'minnow' home games in early in order to get points on the board. As for playing the bigger nations away from home - on recent form we're better away from home anyway, esp if Trap's still in charge. So you could argue that saving the crucial home matches til the Autumn of 2013 isnt that much of an advantage anyway.

I think the Sweden ties are the most important of the bunch and wouldnt fancy having the away match as our first fixture, at all.

PS. 7 points is the absolute minimum i'd want out of SvD's opening fixtures. Full points from the home games (we HAVE to aim to beat Austria.. though how many times have we said stuff like that recently?!) and then a draw and a loss in Sweden and Germany?

I'd say a decent start would have to involve 8 points and two away draws, though we'd want to aim for better if we're looking to qualify.

Will be interesting to see who retires. If we make Euro and do well, there will be some momentum unless half our team calls it a day Internationally.
Damn would love to go to Brasil in the Summer of 14 to watch Ireland in the WC. Then stop in Venezuela and find a wife.

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Originally Posted by Tipp Townie

I'm interested by your idea of 'getting them out of the way'. Does it make a difference? I just dont quite get your reasons (happy to hear them though!).
I'm keen to get the 'minnow' home games in early in order to get points on the board. As for playing the bigger nations away from home - on recent form we're better away from home anyway, esp if Trap's still in charge. So you could argue that saving the crucial home matches til the Autumn of 2013 isnt that much of an advantage anyway.

I think the Sweden ties are the most important of the bunch and wouldnt fancy having the away match as our first fixture, at all.

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Under McCarthy, we really went after the tough games first and it generally worked. Out campaigns got off to good starts against top opposition such as Holland and Croatia. I'd rather to the game to these people early on than build momentum via the smaller games, which can lead to an undeserved feeling of overconfidence.

I'll agree, it's high risk. We don't get the results, we're on the back foot immediately. But we should have the confidence in our ability to know we can turn that situation around if the worst happens. Besides with those early fixtures we have the opportunity to take six from Faroes and Austria (while also getting the always tricky Faroe away game over) while having a go at Sweden and Germany. There's no point waiting to play them.

Your point on our away form is fair enough, but I'd rather have us in front of our home fans towards the end of the campaign against the likes of Sweden.

Let's not play Sweden first then, let's play them third - I don't think it really matters. But get that away game done and dusted early on. At worst we'll know what we have to do in the run-in.

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Originally Posted by Tipp Townie

PS. 7 points is the absolute minimum i'd want out of SvD's opening fixtures. Full points from the home games (we HAVE to aim to beat Austria.. though how many times have we said stuff like that recently?!) and then a draw and a loss in Sweden and Germany?

I'd say a decent start would have to involve 8 points and two away draws, though we'd want to aim for better if we're looking to qualify.

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Allowing for defeat to Germany, 7 points would be a good start. I think even losing to Sweden wouldn't be all that much of a disaster - they'll drop points too. We have to beat Faroes and Austria.

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Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

Under McCarthy, we really went after the tough games first and it generally worked. Out campaigns got off to good starts against top opposition such as Holland and Croatia. I'd rather to the game to these people early on than build momentum via the smaller games, which can lead to an undeserved feeling of overconfidence.

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I think that's just longstanding FAI policy, not particular to McCarthy. I remember playing France away early under Kerr, Germany away under Stan. Not sure why it changed for Trap's first campaign, but I think they tried to get Russia and Slovakia early last time out?

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Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

I think that's just longstanding FAI policy, not particular to McCarthy. I remember playing France away early under Kerr, Germany away under Stan. Not sure why it changed for Trap's first campaign, but I think they tried to get Russia and Slovakia early last time out?

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The fixtures meeting took place before Trapattoni was appointed, so he didn't have anything to do with it.

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Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

I think that's just longstanding FAI policy, not particular to McCarthy. I remember playing France away early under Kerr, Germany away under Stan. Not sure why it changed for Trap's first campaign, but I think they tried to get Russia and Slovakia early last time out?

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Yah just mean regardless of who implemented it, it seemed to really come to the fore when McCarthy was in charge.

Would love to see us start with two away games in Kazakhstan and the Faroes. I think that set of fixtures has served us well in both of Trap's campaigns. We have been characteristically solid against the weaker opposition whilst less than convincing against the seeded sides. If we are going into the second week of fixtures with a lead over Sweden that will give us the momentum to push on and maybe scrape a home draw against ze Germans and a draw here at the Råsunda. I think its going to be tough whatever outcome the fixtures throw up. Toughest group we have had since Portugal and Holland in 2002.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Would love to see us start with two away games in Kazakhstan and the Faroes

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I get your reasons why, but i think this is a big risk in terms of travel time, and neither are the most comfortable trips either (i assume... having not been); amplified when done as a double-header.

The current campaign was exclusively a home-away combo for the double headers - and it has mainly worked well for us. I say we should stick with it.

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Originally Posted by Tipp Townie

The current campaign was exclusively a home-away combo for the double headers - and it has mainly worked well for us. I say we should stick with it.

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That only happened because of the Armenian's being stubborn and FIFA doing the fixtures for the group. Usually there's agreement so I'll be surprised if that happens again (unless the countries happen to think that pattern suits them all best).

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Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

That only happened because of the Armenian's being stubborn and FIFA doing the fixtures for the group. Usually there's agreement so I'll be surprised if that happens again (unless the countries happen to think that pattern suits them all best).

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Yeah i know. But it worked well for us, so we might aswell aim for something similar eh! It might not happen for every double-header, but it'd be particularly useful in some instances (imho - to make sure we dont have two long journeys stuck together in the space of 5 days)

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Originally Posted by Tipp Townie

Yeah i know. But it worked well for us, so we might aswell aim for something similar eh! It might not happen for every double-header, but it'd be particularly useful in some instances (imho - to make sure we dont have two long journeys stuck together in the space of 5 days)

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Certainly. The only realistic away double headers are Germany/Austria and Sweden/Faroes (the former more than the latter). From a travel point-of-view Germany/Austria would be nice, although not convinced from a playing point-of-view!

I think the FAI are all about big home and away double headers. For example they will be eager to couple a home double header of the Germans and the Faroes, and a prerequisite for the securing tickets for the Germany match would require attendance at the Faroes game. I also think they will be looking for the Germany/ Austria double header. On the issue of home/away games working well, I'm not convinced. I wouldn't particularly like to play in Kazakhstan on a Friday night and have to return to Dublin to face one of the big guns on a Tuesday.

I'm all about trying to segregate the fixtures into 2 away double headers and 2 home double headers. Makes sense from a footballing, fans, travel and logistics point of view.

I was just having a flick back through recent campaigns where we've had an away double-header. Cyprus/Andorra in March 2001 is the only example i've found of two wins for us. Otherwise:

EC 04 - Georgia/Albania - 4 pts
EC 08 - Slovakia/Czech - 1 pt
WC 10 - Georgia (sort of!)/Montenegro - 4 pts

And before someone says it, no Holland/Portugal wasn't a double header - though it felt like it! Apols if i've missed any others.

I suppose i'm saying the above stats suggest that away dh's aren't a good idea. Maybe.

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Originally Posted by Tipp Townie

EC 04 - Georgia/Albania - 4 pts
EC 08 - Slovakia/Czech - 1 pt
WC 10 - Georgia (sort of!)/Montenegro - 4 pts

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I think the first and third examples are examples of jobs well done. The middle example, well that can be explained in two words: Steve Staunton.

Fair enough. And i think expecting 6 points from a double trip to Slovakia and the Czechs is asking alot anyway, no matter who's in charge

Preferred List:

Kazachstan (a), Faroes (h) September 2012
Austria (a) Germany (a) October
Kazachstan (h) Austria (h) March 2013
Faroes (a) June
Sweden (a) September
Germany (h) Sweden (h) October
Play-Off (a) Play-Off (h) November

The Germans are usually very fair and accommodating to other team's requests, so I don't expect the meeting not to reach agreement. One thing is guaranteed though. Germany will be at home in their final game, no matter what. So long as we don't have to go there then I don't mind, we have another play-off to play for...

Germany had us at home in the first or second game last time, as far as I remember. I don't think they liked the situation qualifying for the World Cup when they had to beat Russia in the second last game. They'll probably want to get the Irish and Swedish games done early so they can wrap up qualification as quick as possible.

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Originally Posted by mypost

The Germans are usually very fair and accommodating to other team's requests

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What you basing this on? You been to some of their fixture meetings?

The last time we got them, the list was sorted in a couple of hours, with more teams and games. They also willingly agreed to us going there in the first game, and to have them as their last away game.

Compare that to how difficult the Russians were the last time, in insisting they held the fixture meeting, after it was agreed that Slovakia hold it, and then delaying it for another 4 weeks. Then there was no agreement because of the Armenians, and UEFA had to sort it out. The Germans are pragmatists and will conduct everything flawlessly.

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Originally Posted by mypost

The last time we got them, the list was sorted in a couple of hours, with more teams and games. They also willingly agreed to us going there in the first game, and to have them as their last away game..

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I'll ask again, how do you know all this? And what other teams requests have they also agreed to?

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Originally Posted by mypost

The last time we got them, the list was sorted in a couple of hours, with more teams and games. They also willingly agreed to us going there in the first game, and to have them as their last away game.

Compare that to how difficult the Russians were the last time, in insisting they held the fixture meeting, after it was agreed that Slovakia hold it, and then delaying it for another 4 weeks. Then there was no agreement because of the Armenians, and UEFA had to sort it out. The Germans are pragmatists and will conduct everything flawlessly.

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Probably because it doesn't make a difference to the Germans either way. It's like us caring if we play Andorra at home first or away first.

If we got the same fixtures as we did for Euro 2012, then I would be delighted. Matching corresponding seedings of the two groups, a fixture list like this would be just perfect.

Sept 2012: Faroes (A)
Sept 2012: Kazakhstan (H)

Oct 2012: Germany (H)
Oct 2012: Sweden (A)

March 2013: Austria (H)

June 2013: Austria (A)

Sept 2013: Sweden (H)
Sept 2013: Germany (A)

Oct 2013: Kazakhstan (A)
Oct 2013: Faroes (H)

Crucial games in this group has to be ourselves and Sweden. If we can take 4 points from those encounters, we should get a playoff spot. Talking to many Swedes, they are not at all enamoured with the idea of having to play Ireland and they reckon it will be neck and neck between the two countries for a play off spot.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

If we got the same fixtures as we did for Euro 2012, then I would be delighted. Matching corresponding seedings of the two groups, a fixture list like this would be just perfect.

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That only came about because of UEFA doing the draw. Assuming the meeting this week reaches agreement, it won't be like that. I certainly want to go away to Germany, before they come here.

I think playing Germany away last in the group, could be a decent fixture. Playing Germany is never going to be easy but it is certainly a more attractive prospect to play them when they are already qualified.

Germany won every game in their last group, even after they qualified. Belgium went there last and lost the playoff spot. I wouldn't want to be having to go there on the last night needing a result.

If we go there early, then if the result goes wrong, at least it will be out of the way and there'll be "easier" games left to recover the ground.

The groups where things have gone wrong from the start ie Euro 2004 (early defeats against Russia and Switzerland) and Euro 2008 (early defeats to Germany and Cyprus), we have been out of contention before the group has even got underway almost. I think Ireland need to have good results under their belt early on, which gives the team great momentum. When we are playing catch up there never seems to be the belief that we will go away and beat a Germany or Sweden if thats whats necessary.

Again regarding Germany winning all their games in the last group, granted they did but again the easiest time to get a result against Germany is a time when they have qualified. For example, if Estonia are ever going to beat us, tomorrow night is their best chance. A team that is already qualified playing against team that is wounded and really have something to proove, would indicate that their best chance of beating us is now when we really don't have anything to play for. Granted we would like to qualify on home soil with a win, but thats merely aspirational, our goal has been achieved. They have a lot more to proove than we do.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

The groups where things have gone wrong from the start ie Euro 2004 (early defeats against Russia and Switzerland) and Euro 2008 (early defeats to Germany and Cyprus), we have been out of contention before the group has even got underway almost. I think Ireland need to have good results under their belt early on, which gives the team great momentum. When we are playing catch up there never seems to be the belief that we will go away and beat a Germany or Sweden if thats whats necessary.

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In the above cases, we had to go to Switzerland last and win. We know what happened. In the 2008 case, the second last away game was in Prague, and we were eliminated with 3 games remaining.

When we qualified for Euro 88, Italy '90, and Japan 2002, the toughest trips were early in the campaign, meaning we could make up the ground as the group went on. In '88 we got 7 points from the last 4 games, in '90 we got 10 from the last 5, and in 2002, we won 7 of our last 8 group games, before the playoff which we won again.

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Again regarding Germany winning all their games in the last group, granted they did but again the easiest time to get a result against Germany is a time when they have qualified. For example, if Estonia are ever going to beat us, tomorrow night is their best chance. A team that is already qualified playing against team that is wounded and really have something to proove, would indicate that their best chance of beating us is now when we really don't have anything to play for. Granted we would like to qualify on home soil with a win, but thats merely aspirational, our goal has been achieved. They have a lot more to proove than we do.

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It's important to have the last game at home imo. Having Armenia at home as the last group game was an extra help. Having the second leg at home in the playoff would have been a real advantage if we needed it. I wouldn't say no to playing Germany at home near the end, but having to go to Germany late on or the last night, no thanks.

swedens new stadium. 50,000 seater..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sw...ned_layout.png

The other advantage with playing easy games earlier and harder games last, is it could boost our seeding for Euro 2016 draw (assuming that is made at a similar time to the 2014 draw - i.e. prior to the completion of the next qualifiers). For instance Norway had easy fixtures prior to the draw and slipped into the top seeding pot, they were the 8th best team in Europe and so had a group of (them, Slovenia, Swiss, Albania, Cyprus, Iceland). On the other hand Denmark and Russia have done better since the draw and have now overtaken Norway, moving into the first pot and knocking the Norwegians back into the second seeds. Russia have Portgual and the Danish have Italy in their groups, they could have avioded both if they had been in the first pot like the Norwegians.

Other big movers were Wales, up 21 places and would have moved from the 6th (bottom) group to the 3rd group, Armenia would have also moved up from the 5th group to the 3rd. We ourselves would have moved up from the 3rd pot to the 2nd if the draw was done at the end of October. If we have our toughest games last, we might manage to grab a top seeding for 2016 qualification, or at the worst case consolidate our 2nd seeding. On the other hand if we have Germany twice early on we might be in danger of slipping back down to group 3 when the draw is made.

Euro 2016 has 24 teams, with the top 2 from each group going through, the highest 3rd place team will also go through (like Sweden did in second place for Euro 2012) and the rest of the third place teams will have play-offs, so being 2nd seeds (or higher) could be a big advantage.

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Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo

The other advantage with playing easy games earlier and harder games last, is it could boost our seeding for Euro 2016 draw (assuming that is made at a similar time to the 2014 draw - i.e. prior to the completion of the next qualifiers).

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I think the World Cup draw was done early because other federations start earlier (52 countries have already been eliminated). That's not the case for the Euros, so I think it's likely the draw will revert to the usual November/December time.

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Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo

The other advantage with playing easy games earlier and harder games last, is it could boost our seeding for Euro 2016 draw (assuming that is made at a similar time to the 2014 draw - i.e. prior to the completion of the next qualifiers).

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You can assume different, because the Euro draws are never made until after the WCQ's are completed. Last year, it was February before the draw was made.

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Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo

The other advantage with playing easy games earlier and harder games last, is it could boost our seeding for Euro 2016 draw (assuming that is made at a similar time to the 2014 draw - i.e. prior to the completion of the next qualifiers).

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Don't have a link but I know that FIFA have stated explicitly that they will not hold the draw for WC qualification for the UEFA section until the Euro qualification campaign is complete. In short, what happened this year wont happen again.

Can we visit Borat when we go to Kazakhstan?

So today is the day (and tomorrow too)

When are we going to know our fate? Will it be as soon as everything is decided or will the fixtures list have to be ratified by some committee in FIFA first.