NI Assembly Elections 2011

For the first time, the North could have a nationalist First Minister, as Sinn Féin are poised to become the largest party, while Jim Allister's TUV are expected to eat into the DUP's seat total by splitting the unionist vote, though making few seat gains themselves. The SDLP should hold steady around their current seat tally of 16, the Alliance and Greens will be holding to build on their promising '07 outings, while if the UUP slip further, expect murmurings of a Unionist merger to re-emerge. Watch out for Derry's political veteran, Eamonn McCann, after 40 years in the wilderness, this could be the election he finally makes the breakthrough.

Quite looking forward to the results of these elections.
If SF do emerge as the largest party, it's questionable whether or not unionists would be willing to accept McGuinness as FM. Robinson has ruled out SF's 'joint FM' idea, but wouldn't be surprised if the DUP accepted it in the end.
Alternatively, the unionists could call for a restructure of the workings of Stormont. The TUV openly want an end to D'Hondt, and I think other unionist parties may be tempted to agree with them in the event of SF being the largest party. Obviously though, the Assembly will never use majority rule.

Or we could all be making a fuss about nothing, and the DUP will stay as the largest party and everyone will get along grand.

Would love to see McCann elected in Foyle. He'd be a welcome change to the suits up in the Stormont.

Is he running for People Before Profit again yeah?

Yeah, he is, five of the six seats there are guaranteed nationalist, so the voters can afford to give him some preference to break up the status quo.

Test how nationalist, unionist or other you really are.

Interesting. 60% on SDLP, SF and Alliance. I reckon I'm gonna declare differently and see does this affect it.

A drink in D4 next month is on offer for whoever can guess what % age of a Shinner I am? If there's a tie, my good friend Mr P Culloty will draw the winner ;)

55%?

I got 50%-60% for all parties.

Thank you for taking part in True Colours. Your best matches are as follows:
http://www.dev.31interactive.com/asi...s/sinnfein.jpgSinn Fein at 75%

http://www.dev.31interactive.com/asi...mages/sdlp.jpgSDLP at 75%

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Originally Posted by Gather round

A drink in D4 next month is on offer for whoever can guess what % age of a Shinner I am? If there's a tie, my good friend Mr P Culloty will draw the winner ;)

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I'll go with that it didn't show you those results because you clicked UNIONIST. I think that question could skew the results somewhat.

Otherwise you are 55% SF

apparently I'm 60% chucky! Must've voted a dozen times at each or something

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I'll go with that it didn't show you those results because you clicked UNIONIST. I think that question could skew the results somewhat

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Actually I identified as 'other'- I'm a member of the England & Wales Greens. I also said I would never give either SF or DUP first preference, for what it's worth.

Keep those guesses coming...

Just as an experiment, I gave the exact same answers twice, but put myself down as nationalist the first time and unionist the second - evidently it doesn't make any difference because I was 68% for both SF and SDLP both times. GR told me his score, but I'll spare him only to say that apart from one party, there was pretty much a hair's breadth between the others.

I'm going to go with my lowest figure of 43% as my guess. I won't be in Dublin for the game, so if I win I nominate Adreebhoy to get the free drink, just for the craic :)

Not too sure how accurate that test is. I got 82% SF, 72% SDLP and 54% Alliance. DUP ranked bottom for me.
I reckon I'd be closest to SF & SDLP, but I despise the Alliance, and would vote for every other candidate just to keep them out.

Wow. To think people thought Enda Kenny had no charisma... looking at Tom "Barney the Dinosaur" Elliot and Margaret Ritchie; Jesus wept. Martin and Peter didn't break a sweat. And as for David, the less said the better.

You watched it too then Bonnie. Norn Iron political shows aint what they used to be. Nobody whistles when they talk anymore, nobody breaks into a barre of Old Time Religion or shouts cool, biblical sounding stuff like APOSTACY!!! at anyone else. Where's Tom Elliot from anyway? He sounds more southern than I do ffs ...AND he has all the substance and sincerity of a hookers kiss. Don't get me started about Margaret Ritchie (no relation) -she IS an ex-nun right?

She really is awful. I mean to think she's leading a party that was once lead by Seamus Mallon and John Hume. That Tom Elliot leads the party of Molyneaux and Trimble. It's shocking.

it's bleakly funny - the messengers change, but the message remains the same. attack your own to increase your support base, and to hell with political substance.

In fairness SF and the DUP as a whole have been a lot more moderate this time round. That's what confidence will do for you.

Did anyone think Ritchie to be particularly unfocused or scatter-brained in the leaders debate, more so than usual? I only got a chance to watch parts of it last night on the BBC iPlayer, but she seemed almost under the influence. Of drink, I mean; not an evil spirit or anything... I'm still trying to work out what her answer regarding "double-jobbing" was supposed to mean.

As a wholly irrelevant aside, did anyone notice the Darron Gibson doppelgänger making regular cameo appearances in one of the audience rows behind Mark Carruthers' shoulder?

http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot..._6788211_n.jpg

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Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie

Don't get me started about Margaret Ritchie (no relation)

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I'm in complete agreement, the woman is absolutely awful.

Watching her debate on TV is the equivalent of fingernails slowly descending down a blackboard.

Her entire 'primary school teacher' delivery, her complete lack of conversational ability, her ridiculous vocal inflections (which manage to make Alex Atwood seem smooth), etc...

If she remains leader of the party, I will not give them my first preference at the next election.

Counting's been very slow amidst much criticism of the process but, so far, no surprises with Sinn Féin on three seats and the other three main parties on two each. Quite a bit still to go.

The proposed change to the alternative voting system was also rejected in what is being viewed as a crushing defeat for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems along with their poor performance in the local council elections. I thought it would have been a good opportunity to at least improve the current FPTP system for Westminster, but, alas, one wasted. I can't envisage a change will be on the agenda any time soon again. It was expected but I'm surprised the rejection was so emphatic given what I thought was a rather devious and disingenuous campaign run by the "no" camp.

If you are living in the north, you might have gotten one of these (mis)information leaflets through your door: http://imgur.com/a/hgmbQ

Seemed to do the trick though.

Sorry, five for both Sinn Féin and the DUP now.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I thought it would have been a good opportunity to at least improve the current FPTP system for Westminster, but, alas, one wasted

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The 'Yes' campaign (which I supported) was pretty lame, but however slick it might have been, the Tories were always likely to vote against it in block. Add the large numbers of Labour voters who will accept FPTP because they prefer the chance of single-party government, rather than permanent coalition with the LibDems or other minnows.

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I can't envisage a change will be on the agenda any time soon again

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Aye, in the sense that neither of the big two here will trust the electorates with regular referenda. In case they vote to bring back hanging, abolish income tax or make Cheryl Cole la Presidente. But at some point, Labour's leadership may persuade the party as a whole to back it, in which case it'll presumably be a general election issue?

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I'm surprised the rejection was so emphatic given what I thought was a rather devious and disingenuous campaign run by the "no" camp

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I'm surprised too. Put it down to a combination of the No camp being slick if dishonest, plus a general fear of change?

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Originally Posted by The Fly

I'm in complete agreement, the woman is absolutely awful.

Watching her debate on TV is the equivalent of fingernails slowly descending down a blackboard.

Her entire 'primary school teacher' delivery, her complete lack of conversational ability, her ridiculous vocal inflections (which manage to make Alex Atwood seem smooth), etc...

If she remains leader of the party, I will not give them my first preference at the next election

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I've heard Connor McDevitt being talked up, not least because he's a confident TV performer. Ritchie might improve with experience and training, I suppose.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

She really is awful. I mean to think she's leading a party that was once lead by Seamus Mallon and John Hume. That Tom Elliot leads the party of Molyneaux and Trimble. It's shocking

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Seamus Mallon and Jim Molyneaux weren't that much better presenting their parties than Ritchie and Elliot. Not every political leader can be telegenic. If that's the main criterion, you risk ending up with a tub-thumper or someone like Clegg over here.

It's turning out to be a depressing day(excluding the bloody thunder showers). I don't understand why Derry is still such a SDLP stronghold. I had hoped Eamon McCann would finally be able to steal a seat from them but alas it doesn't look like it's going to happen.

I'd imagine the influence and legacy of John Hume might have a part to play. In saying that, I never found Mark Durkan all that charismatic.

It is the legacy of Hume. My parents generation are the ones who marched for the right to vote, and the majority of them were pro-SDLP, or at least supported most of their policies. My generation, the one born in the '80's, don't remember the worst of the troubles or the denial of civil rights, and are usually less inclined to go out and vote, as opposed to the people who actually fought to secure their vote (not literally by the way). Give it another 6 or 7 years and you'll really start to see the gap close.

The biggest mistake the SDLP made in recent years was to attempt to develop/market itself as a 'post-nationalist' party. A laudable idea, attempting to develop a Euro-centric political base, but I'd say 50 years too early for the north.

Durkan by all accounts is genuinely decent and hard working man, and has always struck me as being very honest and intelligent. His problem I think is that he is a bit of a cold fish, he strikes people as being a bit stand offish at times, and seems to have rouble communicating ideas in a simple manner (note simple does not equate to stupid folks).

Bit of a surreal moment in Omagh as Tom Elliott gets a rush of blood to the head and responds to republican heckling over his reference to Irish tricolours in the count centre as "flags of a foreign nation" by labelling Sinn Féin "scum": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13323749

I saw that live earlier today, and whilst it was certainly surprising I wouldn't call it surreal. He was probably just reverting to type. Even the person standing beside him, who I presume to be some sort of aide, looked embarassed.

All 108 seats have now been filled. McCann appears to have missed out by a very slim margin in Foyle being eliminated in the last round having won 153 more first preference votes than the elected Colum Eastwood. Clearly, a lack of transfers sealing his fate.

Interestingly, the referendum figures for NI showed 55.2% of the voting electorate rejecting the proposed alternative voting system.

Here's some interesting graphs and statistics from UTV's site

That really shows that very little changed since last time.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

If she [Mag Ritchie] remains leader of the party, I will not give them my first preference at the next election.

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Spent yesterday evening at the count in Derry, and talking to SDLP ones, she'll be out the door come their conference in November. Alisdair McDonnell is a candidate that was mentioned to take over.

Derry City Council, the same as most councils, has stayed the same, though it was fairly close between an SDLP candidate and dissident Republican candidate Donnelly. Bit embarassing for SF there maybe.

Tom Elliot is trying to position the UUP as the most loyalist of the main parties, essentially bringing the UUP back to where it was pre-peace process. I reckon his leadership will be fairly insecure though.
He would do a lot for himself if he can persuade McClarty in East Derry to rejoin the party and get an extra minister in the executive.

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Originally Posted by brendy_éire

Tom Elliot is trying to position the UUP as the most loyalist of the main parties, essentially bringing the UUP back to where it was pre-peace process. I reckon his leadership will be fairly insecure though.
He would do a lot for himself if he can persuade McClarty in East Derry to rejoin the party and get an extra minister in the executive.

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Tom Elliot should leave all that guff to Jim Allister and his cronies.

McClarty has stated that he will not consider rejoining the UUP until Tom Elliot retracts his "scum" comments.

The UUP has lost some progressive forward thinkers because of Elliot - I don't think he'll be in situ for a long time.

Good results for Alliance - I'm pleased with that. They got my first preference for the first time ever.

Edit: McClarty announced on UTV last night that he will not be re-joining the UUP. This secures another ministeral post for Alliance.