Irish parties in NI

Following on from backtowalsall's post in the election thread, it seems nationalists want an alternative to the SDLP/SF carve-up, with Sinn Féin largely unchallenged in Fermanagh, Tyrone and Armagh and SDLP likewise in Derry and Down. A few years ago, there was a deep divide over possible SDLP alliances, with younger members wanting a merger with (Irish) Labour and the older generation favouring Fianna Fáil. FF, however, have set up branches in Derry and Armagh with the view of eventually contesting the Assembly elections, whether they have a natural support base there though is debatable. The NI Greens recently merged with their counterparts south of the border, but FG seem to have no plans on the issue. In any case, given the debacle the Tories had with the UUP, local voters are likely to stick to their home-grown parties regardless of the plans of others.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Sinn Féin largely unchallenged in Fermanagh

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Interesting description of a 45,000 poll decided by only four votes :cool:

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A few years ago, there was a deep divide over possible SDLP alliances, with younger members wanting a merger with (Irish) Labour and the older generation favouring Fianna Fáil

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The latter looks more plausible- both FF and SDLP are broadly nationalist parties.

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FF, however, have set up branches in Derry and Armagh with the view of eventually contesting the Assembly elections, whether they have a natural support base there though is debatable

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I look forward to FF contesting NI elections. How do you think they'd do in Antrim East or Down North?

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The NI Greens recently merged with their counterparts south of the border, but FG seem to have no plans on the issue

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FG don't really have any counterparts in NI, given the weakness/ non-organisation of the Conservatives.

I was at the (England and Wales) Green Conference recently. No discussion on the Greens' role in government in Dublin, which might have been interesting. There's another in February, maybe then?

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In any case, given the debacle the Tories had with the UUP, local voters are likely to stick to their home-grown parties regardless of the plans of others

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Agreed. The British Tories might as well just stand on their own in NI. Initially lost deposits but eventually they should establish.

The Tories have no chance of breaking the hegemony of the mainstream unionist parties. Mainly because their voters have no interest in an even bigger shower of tw*ts.

As for the The SDLP & FF, Hmm. I don't think so.

I don't think so either and if anyone's considering a venture into virgin territory then I'd rather the SDLP ran candidates down here. If I were northern based I think it likely I'd be an SDLP voter -and I never have and never will put an X next to a FF candidate. In fact I'm a little curious as to where BtW sees substantial differences between Fine Gael and his so called natural party of government.

The SDLPs leftist credentials may or may not be soapy but they have never ever been the magnet for white collar gangsters on the make that FF have been in this jurisdiction.

It is not healthy that a party should consider itself a "natural party of government". It is less healthy that they've actually been in power for all but what? ..18 ...20 years since the state was founded. That in itself is the gangster magnet.

Nor is it healthy that they've been able to pass themselves off as (quoting Brian Lenihan Seniors quip that still buckles me 20 years later) "a party of the near left" on the basis of scarcely more than courting the solid grey vote with bus passes and medical cards - the kind of basic facilitation and right available to such a group in pretty much every functional 1st world state regardless of the hue of the government.

But worse - the electorate in this country has painted itself into a corner whereby there is no configuration of government possible but a center right coalition. I'm not even saying a leftist one would make all well with the world or this wee part of it -but there should be options.

As it stands our democracy is akin to an ice cream stand that only sells two flavours - praline and dick or toffee and dick.

I don't think that Northern Irish parties have anything to offer Southern politics. The SDLP is a directionless party and has been for some time.

Only the Nats parties would by definition....
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Dunno about that. Might be a vote for a Unionist in my gaff yet. More than once in recent years I've asked myself is this really what we swapped Kings, Queens and Viceroys for and were we not just ****in up a rope with a nationalism buzz that got way out of hand? I've thought to myself we've failed any reasonable sovreignty test and that Kipling and Churchill were right that we're not fit to administer our own affairs due to parochialism, mé fein-ism and everyone ridin' every one elses sister. Very poor social contract in this country in my humble view ...akin to the definition of a "gentlemans agreement" supplied in another thread. Pity really. A ****ty pity.

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Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie

Dunno about that. Might be a vote for a Unionist in my gaff yet. More than once in recent years I've asked myself is this really what we swapped Kings, Queens and Viceroys for and were we not just ****in up a rope with a nationalism buzz that got way out of hand? I've thought to myself we've failed any reasonable sovreignty test and that Kipling and Churchill were right that we're not fit to administer our own affairs due to parochialism, mé fein-ism and everyone ridin' every one elses sister. Very poor social contract in this country in my humble view ...akin to the definition of a "gentlemans agreement" supplied in another thread. Pity really. A ****ty pity.

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I'd take what we have over Iraq and Afghanistan, every, single, time!

For all their faults, one thing SF do have right is that they make a lot of being an all-Ireland party. The claim of FF to be "the Republican Party" is utter tripe whilst they don't see the need to organise in the North. That seems to be changing at long last, with or without the SDLP being part of their move north. I would love to see Labour come north as well, but i think FF have to go first and take the SDLP with them to leave them a base of left leaning northerners who have nowhere to go.

Just an aside. In the wake of last friday, is there any possibility FF would turn to John Hume as their candidate for President? Would Labour and FF put him forward as an agreed candidate? I get the feeling Gerry Adams will run for Sinn Fein which could be interesting

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

For all their faults, one thing SF do have right is that they make a lot of being an all-Ireland party.

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They may make a lot of it, but unfortunately for them, there is nothing really substantive behind it. Sinn Fein are, have been, and will remain, a marginal political force in the Republic.

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Just an aside. In the wake of last friday, is there any possibility FF would turn to John Hume as their candidate for President? Would Labour and FF put him forward as an agreed candidate?

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John Hume has retired from political life for health reasons.

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I get the feeling Gerry Adams will run for Sinn Fein which could be interesting

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It is in no way appropriate for Gerry Adams to be President of this nation.

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

Just an aside. In the wake of last friday, is there any possibility FF would turn to John Hume as their candidate for President? Would Labour and FF put him forward as an agreed candidate? I get the feeling Gerry Adams will run for Sinn Fein which could be interesting

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Labour already have two strong candidates in Fergus Finlay and Michael D Higgins, too many egos in FF (Mary O'Rourke, Brian Crowley) for them to take the sensible option, although FG might consider him when they've no outstanding contender (John Bruton?). Whatever about the Unionists, Alliance would be leftish by Irish standards, pretty much similar territory to Labour and the Greens.

Much as I'd 'love' it , can't see Gerry being 'El Presidente', though it would be very funny.
And for all the other observations one might make, he's a lot straighter than certain other high-profile candidates.

The Alliance Party are worthy in their aims albeit totally Unionist, but wholly unrealistic given their potential electorate. Despite them winning a seat in the last election.

And what The Fly said also in post no.8. Which is just the tip of the iceberg.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

I'd take what we have over Iraq and Afghanistan, every, single, time!

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True. I'd have hoped we'd have set the bar a little higher mind -what with being a small first world democracy completely surrounded by other first world democracys and having a relatively well educated mother-tongue English speaking population and all.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Labour already have two strong candidates in Fergus Finlay and Michael D Higgins, too many egos in FF (Mary O'Rourke, Brian Crowley) for them to take the sensible option, although FG might consider him when they've no outstanding contender (John Bruton?). Whatever about the Unionists, Alliance would be leftish by Irish standards, pretty much similar territory to Labour and the Greens.

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Socially leftist for sure, economically -they belong in the same grouping as Britains Liberal Democrats and our now defunct Progressive Democrats.

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

Much as I'd 'love' it , can't see Gerry being 'El Presidente', though it would be very funny.
And for all the other observations one might make, he's a lot straighter than certain other high-profile candidates.

The Alliance Party are worthy in their aims albeit totally Unionist.

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a little harsh. Republicans would maybe dub them so on the basis that not to be part of the "solution" is to be part of the "problem"

OK, I hate it when people reply to every point on a post, and usually can't be bothered reading it. I'm aware of the hypocrisy

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Originally Posted by The Fly

They may make a lot of it, but unfortunately for them, there is nothing really substantive behind it. Sinn Fein are, have been, and will remain, a marginal political force in the Republic.

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As far as i can tell, anything is possible at the next election, though i agree in general. Long term for them to be successful they need to become a party of the left, rather than of republican revolution. But there has been a tension between socialism and republicanism in the republican movement since Connolly and Pearce, and that will continue for the immediate future. The only way that can end is the republican objectives being achieved, leaving the party to the socialists.

Personally I think they should merge with Labour and give the left a united voice.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

John Hume has retired from political life for health reasons.

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I know, but its far from the most demanding job in the world, much less demanding than leading the SDLP. After Dev and before Mary Robinson Presidents rarely left the house. John Hume could potter about Áras an Uachtaráin no bother at all, and if anyone doubts the FF machine would be willing to cut that deal to keep their pick in Aras, in my opinion they really don't get what makes FF tick

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Originally Posted by The Fly

It is in no way appropriate for Gerry Adams to be President of this nation.

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I know why your saying that, but I can't agree. Frankly its a cheap shot against the man (who i have no great liking of) from an nice comfortable life south of the border, to critisise him because he might have killed people*. He did nothing President Éamon de Valera didn't do, or wouldn't have done faced with what his generation were faced with in the north. One could argue that northern republicans showed remarkable restraint in waiting until late 1969 to start a war, given that the civil rights movement had been trying the Ghandi/King approach for 5 years at that stage, and were met with nothing but violence from the authorities.

That said i can't imagine for a minute he will be elected, but a run for President would be an excellent way for him to step aside from the leadership of SF, and leave it to someone in the Dail, most likely McDonald if she is elected

* I don't intend to libel myself on here

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

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I know, but its far from the most demanding job in the world, much less demanding than leading the SDLP. After Dev and before Mary Robinson Presidents rarely left the house. John Hume could potter about Áras an Uachtaráin no bother at all, and if anyone doubts the FF machine would be willing to cut that deal to keep their pick in Aras, in my opinion they really don't get what makes FF tick.

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I don't want to go into detail, as I'm not sure whether it is in the public realm, but the health reasons I referred to would not enable him to carry out the functions of public office.

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I know why your saying that, but I can't agree. Frankly its a cheap shot against the man (who i have no great liking of) from an nice comfortable life south of the border, to critisise him because he might have killed people*.

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I'm from the North.

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He did nothing President Éamon de Valera didn't do, or wouldn't have done faced with what his generation were faced with in the north. One could argue that northern republicans showed remarkable restraint in waiting until late 1969 to start a war, given that the civil rights movement had been trying the Ghandi/King approach for 5 years at that stage, and were met with nothing but violence from the authorities.

That said i can't imagine for a minute he will be elected, but a run for President would be an excellent way for him to step aside from the leadership of SF, and leave it to someone in the Dail, most likely McDonald if she is elected

* I don't intend to libel myself on here

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Leaving aside his suitability for such a post, what would be the point of Adams as President?

The Republic moved on from his politics a long time ago, and he has little or no relevance to its people. Despite claims to the contrary, he is a resolutely 'Northern' figure, with little appeal to the Southern voter.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

I don't want to go into detail, as I'm not sure whether it is in the public realm, but the health reasons I referred to would not enable him to carry out the functions of public office.

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Hmm, thats a pity. he would probably be a shoe if he was fit to run.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

I'm from the North.

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Touché

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Originally Posted by The Fly

Leaving aside his suitability for such a post, what would be the point of Adams as President?

The Republic moved on from his politics a long time ago, and he has little or no relevance to its people. Despite claims to the contrary, he is a resolutely 'Northern' figure, with little appeal to the Southern voter.

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I never said he will be President. I said I suspect he will run. And the fact that he he is a resolutely 'Northern' figure, with little appeal to the Southern voter, is exactly why I think he will run. He is holding SF back in the south, so running for President, even unsuccessfully, allows him to solve that problem by standing down as leader of SF with some degree of dignity and passing the torch on to a southerner.

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Originally Posted by Ardee Bhoy

The Tories have no chance of breaking the hegemony of the mainstream unionist parties

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The DUP hardly have a hegemony, just domination in the slightly bigger half of a tiny pond. UUP and TUV barely have hegemony over their own back gardens.

As usual, you're arguing that there's no point the Brit parties standing in NI (or generally anyone standing anywhere new) unless they win all or most of the seats, which is unnecesarily negative. Even a handful of seats in NI could be crucial in a future hung vote situation. In the bigger picture, the Tories should stand in their own name in all NI seats for the same reason that logically Fianna Fail should; anything else weakens their claim to be a fully 'national' party.

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The Alliance Party are worthy in their aims albeit totally Unionist, but wholly unrealistic given their potential electorate. Despite them winning a seat in the last election

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AB in 'unionist party worthy' shock ;)

They're totally unionist only in the sense of being non-nationalist (ie like every party in Britain bar SNP, Plaid Cymru and, er Meibion Kernow). Although you could say they're closer to unionist than nationalist politics and get most of their support in majority-unionist areas.

Their realistic aims were to maintain a presence in the NIA and local Councils in those areas. The Swish Family's sex and cash scandals gave them a chance to progress into Westminster, which they took.

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Originally Posted by Hedderman

I don't think that Northern Irish parties have anything to offer Southern politics

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NI parties (or at least parties that organise all-Ireland) already offer something (eg Sinn Fein) or have actually been in government (ie Greens).

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Originally Posted by Fly

I don't want to go into detail, as I'm not sure whether it is in the public realm, but the health reasons I referred to would not enable him to carry out the functions of public office

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I think it's widely known, if effectively embargoed in the media. Sean Rainey (who some of the Derry boys on here will know) mentioned it while we chewing the fat on the Orient Express to Slovenia back in 2008.

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

Hmm, thats a pity. he would probably be a shoe if he was fit to run.

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Slip-on or laced?

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Originally Posted by The Fly

Slip-on or laced?

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Talking politics, it's a flip-flop surely?

That was meant to be "shoe in", but that leads to the obvious next question. Which Irish political parties would be represented by which type of shoe?

I'm going to start with Wellies for the Greens, Stilettos for the NI Women's Coalition, and, at the risk of raking up the ashes of O'Duffy, Jack-boots for FG.

Not sure about FF. Probably whatever the most used notes can be shoved into. Any suggestions?

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

Not sure about FF. Probably whatever the most used notes can be shoved into. Any suggestions?

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Waders.

At the cost of using an Americanism, sneakers.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

The DUP hardly have a hegemony, just domination in the slightly bigger half of a tiny pond. UUP and TUV barely have hegemony over their own back gardens.

As usual, you're arguing that there's no point the Brit parties standing in NI (or generally anyone standing anywhere new) unless they win all or most of the seats, which is unnecesarily negative. Even a handful of seats in NI could be crucial in a future hung vote situation. In the bigger picture, the Tories should stand in their own name in all NI seats for the same reason that logically Fianna Fail should; anything else weakens their claim to be a fully 'national' party.

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The DUP have taken advantage of the polarisation of politics in the North and reduced their opposition to barely any credible presence. If that isn't a hegemony, I don't know what is....

As for the Tories being inflicted on the North, given their record in Britain, why would even the insane in the Ballymena 'bible belt' be remotely interested in their latest form of aiding the rich and moral bankruptcy in general.
Similarly Labour, LD's & FF who whilst not as bad, have hardly covered themselves in glory in recent times.

They're hardly going to add anything positive to Northern politics, which based on electoral evidence isn't remotely interested in them.

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They're totally unionist only in the sense of being non-nationalist (ie like every party in Britain bar SNP, Plaid Cymru and, er Meibion Kernow). Although you could say they're closer to unionist than nationalist politics and get most of their support in majority-unionist areas.

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Except they're standing just in the North of Ireland.
And maintaining the 'status quo' is a default unionist position in my book.
And again that of most nationalist voters. 90% of whom would never consider voting for them, unless it was to get rid of a bigot like Peter Robinson. Which is the only thing they'd ever be good for.

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

Personally I think they should merge with Labour and give the left a united voice.

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Finally reuniting the SF of old. Bleugh.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Finally reuniting the SF of old. Bleugh.

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Except Labour never formed part of Sinn Féin, as they were founded in 1912, long before independence. Ritchie is ruling out mergers with any Southern party, but it's hard to see how they can regain ground otherwise.

Sorry for the implication of Labour being part of SF. I was mainly talking about the Workers Party etc and its various iterations.

You may find it hard to believe that they can't gain ground any other way other than through a merger but I can't understand how some people believe that the SDLP will be invigorated by the dynamic souls of FF.

You're right.
SDLP & Labour makes far more sense. Though agree their policies don't match currently. More of a Lib-Lab.pact to give it a British analogy.

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

You're right.
SDLP & Labour makes far more sense. Though agree their policies don't match currently. More of a Lib-Lab.pact to give it a British analogy.

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There would be incredible social tension in that arrangement. Southern lefties just couldn't do business with northern "Green Tories". The SDLP are no longer the "we shall overcome" party. They have grown old, rich, and their membership have moved to the right.

The problem with SF over the last decade has been the "whiff of sulphur" as Ryan Tubridy referred to it tonight when talking to Eamon Gilmore. But that is changing. After the next election SF in the Dail will be a selection of people like Pearse Doherty (33), Tomás Sharkey (34), Toiréasa Ferris (30), Pádraig MacLochlainn (35/36) and Mary Lou McDonald (41). Given that at the time of the ceasefire they were 17, 18, 14, 19/20 and 25, its hard to attach so much as a whiff to them, compared to the current SF TD's.

Which is probably part of why Gilmore was trying to draw the distinction with SF on policy rather than moral grounds (he himself was in Official Sinn Fein). He recognises that eventually he will have to do business with them, and that he probably can do business with them.

The likelihood is that after the next election no party will have a mandate to govern, or even be the senior party within a coalition. The bookies suggest something along the lines of

Fine Gael: 51-55
Fianna Fail: 46-55
Labour: 46-50
SF: 6-7
Green: 1

Having watched the PD's and Greens be destroyed by government, I doubt SF will be willing to race into government as a small coalition partner, and a FG-Lab coalition doesn't need them anyway. Obviously there will be a few independents, but it is very possible to see a scenario where some kind of arrangement between Labour and SF comes about to make them the biggest party in the Dail and make Gilmore Taoiseach.

Furthermore, if SF and Labour can take the best of both parties they could become a very credible outfit. Labour get republican credentials, experience of government in the north, and a name seeped in history from SF, SF get respectability and serious economic and European policy platforms from Labour, and together they unite they reunite the traditions of Connolly and Pearse. I know it sounds a bit pie in the sky, but anything can happen in coalition negotiations.

If they pulled it off, FF and the SDLP would hop into bed quicker than 2 arts college freshers, and FG would be stuck between a 'Fianna Fail - The Republican Party' rock, and a 'Sinn Fein - The Labour Party' hard place. They couldn't possibly put FF back into power, so they would be forced to become a junior coalition party, and take all the sh1t that comes with the job.

That argument definitely has its merits and recognise SF is a more natural bedfellow to the ILP, though they don't seem as credible or respected (unsurprisingly!) in the current Irish state over their status in the North.
And the ILP voters I know seem closer to the SDLP in their stance on many issues, though would be delighted to be proved wrong generally.

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Originally Posted by backtowalsall

The problem with SF over the last decade has been the "whiff of sulphur" as Ryan Tubridy referred to it tonight when talking to Eamon Gilmore. .

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Stopped reading after that!!! I mean come on!!!! Ryan Turgidy, please!!!!