Printable View
Fintan O Toole argues in today's Irish Times that Labour should not form a coalition with either of the civil war parties and that to do so perpetuates their dominance.
It certainly would be very interesting if a resurgent Labour could hold aloof after the next general election and force an FF-FG coalition.
One suspects though that the civil war parties would rather go back to the electorate than govern together.
They're politicians, they'll happily suck each other's balls for a seat at the Cabinet table.
(To preempt: They're politicians, they probably do anyway.)
Its tough for labour, as if they don't get involved some will criticise them for taking potshots fromt he outside when they could be effecting policies.
Personally I'd like to see them stand stronga nd stay away from FF and FG
Whatever about politicians wanting power (obviously, if you want to effect change), would they really get the support of the people if it forced a run of unstable Governments, in the current circumstances? It's up to the voters to give them a big enough mandate to allow that happen.
Personally, I think Springs big mistake was not hanging tough. However, right back to before the formation of the state Labour has the track record of putting state ahead of party, to it's own detriment.
I might feel the same way after the election if they pick up a lot of seats, but in their current position I don't think they're a lot to be gained from it. They have very little say in Irish politics at the moment, and imho it's a bad thing to have the only credible left-of-centre party in that position. (They're not left-of-centre enough for me these days, but that's another debate.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
I don't think any party can approach an election saying they will not enter into government. When FF said they wouldn't go into coaltion that was seen as arrogant.
Coaltion is a fact of life in Irish politics. Probably the least stable colation would be one of equal parties - it seems best to have one clear leader.
The reason Labour had to accept policies of other parties is because they were a junior member in government. When they get 40+ seats then they will have greater say.
I find it hard to know what Labour stand for as it seems to vary from candidate to candidate.
If they get 40+, it means total collapse of FF, and would open up the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF Coalition.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
How else are they going to find 83 seats?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr A
FG could only recover the 20 seats they lost in 2002 last time, Labour lost one, and would gain only 10 more max. So they'll have to go cap in hand with FG to form a coalition as two official centre-left parties. FG have moved away from the left in recent years, but that's where their roots are.
I think by now those roots may have fallen off. FG is right-of-centre now, full stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
FG centre left? When? O'Duffy must be spinning in his grave at that description of the FG roots...Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
By no stretch of any imagination could FG every be called a left wing party. or even left of centre. Or even centrist for that matter...
Indeed, the whole point of this discussion is that FF and FG are essentially the same in most ways (that said, I'd rather have FG in there than FF since they don't seem to have quite the same culture of incompetence and gombeenism), and that's an unhealthy thing for our democracy.
If Labour could force the two centre right parties into office together, they could reap real awards at the following election.
I suppose FF could be described as centre right depending on the time of day?
Or, we could simply use their track record in Government, particularly since 1997, to prove they're a right wing party.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
If Labour refused government and forced a second election we'd be left with having to give either FF or FG a straight majority, minus a half dozen green seats.
It'd be like Dr. Pepper trying to force an end to Coke and Pepsi by refusing to sell us any more Dr. Pepper.
Why would it be Labour forcing an election in those circumstances? There would still be an option for Government - FG/FF. You're right in how it'd be painted, but how come only Labour have to fall on the sword of "national interest" not the other two main parties?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bald Student
Because this entire argument is based around the notion that it's ignoble for a politician to enter government. There might be some romance in that idea but I think that most people go to vote for the person they want to run the country. If Labour chose to not do that job, we'd be faced with a straight choice between the two other main parties.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
To put it more simply; if Labour say to the electorate that there's no point in voting for them unless we give them a majority, I think it's more likely that people won't vote for them than give them that majority.
A good example is the Green Party. They had a choice, either go into government & try to prove they could make a different or forever remain on the sidelines. If it doesn't work out for them they could take a beating at next General Election but if they didn't take the gamble they would never move past maybe 10 seats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bald Student
In recent General Elections Labout put themselves under pressure by aligning themselves with FG both officially for one GE & unofficial for the last GE.
They were officially aligned with FG for the last election (the Mullingar Accord) and it was a tactical disaster fro Labour. It shored up FG's position as the main opposition party, the election became a straight choice between FG and FF (the Leader's Debate was only between Kenny and Ahern) with the smaller parties, including Labour, being squeezed out.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
A good article by O'Toole, I agree with much of it.
Gilmore refuses to rule out going into power with FF
In the national interest.Quote:
LABOUR leader Eamon Gilmore has again refused to rule out going into government with Fianna Fail.
He was speaking after Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny warned that only a vote for Fine Gael in the two forthcoming Dail by-elections could ensure that Fianna Fail returns to the opposition benches.
http://www.independent.ie/national-n...f-1738395.html
Mr Gilmore refused to be drawn on the comments yesterday, saying instead that the public were "rightly rejecting" Fianna Fail in what was a contest for the leadership of the next government.
As I outlined earlier, if Labour do really well, and FF do really badly, there is the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF coalition. If it meant Labour as the main party he'd be mad to rule it out - FF will do anything to cling to power so would cave on pretty much everything Labour wanted whilst claiming they were centre left the whole time anyway. It's a different ball game from the last election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo
I can't see anyway that FF would go into government as a junior partner. They would choose opposition before that happens.
Well the whole point of FF is to be in power, so I wouldn't rule it out peteQuote:
Originally Posted by pete
Labour can't rule out going into power with FF or they're effectively in bed with FG again and risk what happened at the last election happening again.
It's a tricky situation, and they may well end up damned whatever they do.
Clearly there is a lot of anti-FF feelings around & voters are looking for someone else to give their vote. If this was a General Election could a serious own goal by Labour as people may not want to vote for them if it returns FF to power.
Whether they go for official pack or not I don't see any option but for FG/Labour agreement in advance of next General Election. No one can afford to campaign with chance they would put FF back into power.
Gilmore will never be Taoiseach, as there has rarely, if ever been a Labour Taoiseach. He would be propping up FG or FF if he was in government.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
The local elections imo, have always been joke elections. They're a chance for the electorate to jab a few punches at FF, instead of landing knock-out blows. If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
Except that wouldn't just be a blow to FF now, would it?Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
No, but if you want to hurt them, that's when to do it.
Even if they don't get a vote in the local elections, they'll still be in power in September. The by-election defeats wouldn't hurt them as they'd still have the majority. With the Europeans, they can ship someone off to Brussels if necessary.
Getting a grilling from Merkel and Sarkosy again, wouldn't go down well.
Except I do not vote to hurt people I vote for whatever I think is best for myself my family and for the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
ah neil - as much as i love your posts - please:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilMcD
thats not the irish way - hurt the ff bassterds -
It depends on how people vote. Basically, it always comes down to how the numbers stack up post election. Even if Labour doesn’t beat FF, it could be the price for coalition. See Dodge's post to see why that could still happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Total rubbish, local elections do affect people, but even then if they get decimated then it does help get FF out. With two lost Bye elections, and a really poor result, the independents, Greens (ministerial pensions achieved) and some back benchers will really start to see they have to be the ones seen to pull the house of cards down first.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Voting No to Lisbon would have little effect, as all the main parties will be supporting a Yes vote, so where exactly will the pressure come from?
Seriously I have never voted for FF in my life but my motivation was not to hurt them.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
It'll never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
FF will do bad in locals & european elections , They won't win either bye election( governments never do).After June there will be a heave against Cowan, Dermot Ahern becomes leader. New Cabinet. FF won't do as bad in the next general election as every thinks. Think Inda will drop the ball again.
Its difficult to see how Labour could becme the biggest party in a coaltion. Last election:
FF - 78
FG - 51.
Lab - 20.
Labour would have to double their seats & see FF lose half theirs for Gilmore to lead a Lab/FF government. For a Lab/FG government FG would need to lose seats which seems very unlikely.
I know it doesn't necessarily translate proportionally into seats, but you do realise that on these figures the Labour vote has doubled since the last general election and the FF vote has halved since the last general election, don't you?Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
FF were decimated in the locals in 2004, but after going away for the long snooze, were still in power when they returned, and they got back in in the general 2 years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Basically, their "meltdown" will be a story for the journos to run with it for a few weeks, until the recess starts. It will die down after it.
I don't advocate hitting the government for hitting's sake, but if you want to land a big blow of punches, Lisbon is the time to do it. Everything else they can absorb. After all, Cowen is only interested in satisfying international investors with his policies, it's not looking after the people he's responsible for, i.e. us. His image abroad is what bothers him, not at home.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0515/labour.html
Gilmore falls into the trap. Were back to FG & Labour as the alternative.Quote:
Mr Gilmore stressed that the Labour Party was different from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but he did not rule out entering into a Programme of Government with Fine Gael in the future.
There is really no other alternative.
True, but now they'll have to jusify difference in policy & prove that they can work together as a potential government.
Better now than after the election, like the lying bags of crap in the Greens.