What we need to do to qualify (perhaps)

Second place guarantees qualification this time around. Fact.

I looked at the full qualifying campaigns for WC06, UEFA 2004, WC02 & and UEFA 2000 to see how many points per game was required to finish second. I couldn't be arsed going back further.

Here's the answer:

Average points per second placed team: 1.98
Median: 2.00
High: 2.40
Low: 1.63 (including England, naturally!)

So, on the basis of the above, 2 points per game (i.e., 24 from our 12 games) ought to secure second place and outright qualification.

In 16 out of the 36 groups observed (so 44% of the time), less than 2 points per game was good enough for second.

Only 3 times in the 4 campaigns / 36 groups was a team eliminated with at least 2 points per game (Romania came 3rd to Czech Rep & Holland on 2.5 ppg, Holland finished behind us & Portugal on 2.00ppg and Belgium also came third behind Croatia on exactly 2ppg. 1.92 was next highest third place).

Is the following points tally out of the question for Ireland?

Germany & Czech Republic together: 4 points
Slovakia: 4 points
Wales: 4 points
Cyprus: 6 points
San Marino: 6 points

Total: 24 points or 2 points per game

I mentioned above that 44% of the time less than 2 points per game was good enough for second. This was usually in what looked to me like tight groups with quite good 2, 3, 4 and 5 seeds. It looks pretty much like that to me in our current group.

My guess is that 22 or 23 will do the job.

You can debate among yourselves whether we'd like to see a runaway winner (Germany?) leaving the rest to scrap it out, or an even contest among all our main opponents.

put like that, its certainly not beyond us, and i think our tendency to take a point against the bigger sides means the required point tally from the czechs and the germans is not beyond us, however i still feel in one of these 4 games we are likely to lose one, but better to win one and lose one than draw 2 eh? can be done.

however, i can still see us, having surpassed ourselves with a legendary performance and result v one of the big two, going on to fail to beat wales or slovakia (or both) at home.

but i remain cautiously optimistic that we could do it. and i definately believe that wheather we quailfy or not, with the younger players about to come through, we will have many positives to take from this upcoming campaign.

Good analysis Stuttgart

Jaysus, put like that it's not quite so daunting. Very good post.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Second place guarantees qualification this time around. Fact.

I looked at the full qualifying campaigns for WC06, UEFA 2004, WC02 & and UEFA 2000 to see how many points per game was required to finish second. I couldn't be arsed going back further.

Here's the answer:

Average points per second placed team: 1.98
Median: 2.00
High: 2.40
Low: 1.63 (including England, naturally!)

S

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Written like a true actuary!

Now how much will my pension be worth?

Stuttgart88, are you Brian Kerr?

good analysis Stutt......and to think you used to tell me to get out more!! :)


I will comment more sensibly at a more sensible hour!!

Fair play! :)

Germany (a) Draw
Cyprus (a) Win
Czech Rep. (h) Draw
San Marino (h) Win
San Marino (a) Win
Wales (h) Draw
Slovakia (h) Win
Slovakia (a) Draw
Czech Rep. (a) Lose
Germany (h) Draw
Cyprus (h) Win
Wales (a) Draw

21 points will be borderline for qualification. Depending on how the big teams do when they face each other, the points could be scattered around. The nightmare scenario for us, is a pile of draws between them, like last time. Our last game is the trip to Cardiff, on Saturday afternoon at 3.00, so there will be five more games to be completed in the group after ours, ensuring a nail biting finish on the television the following Wednesday night. It's going to be tight, tense, and down to the wire.

I agree when totalfootball suggests that a higher average than 2 ppg is likely to be required across all the groups.

However, if you look at our group we have two quality teams, albeit potentially vulnerable, and of the next three - Slovakia, Ireland and Wales - each has made the playoffs recently enough so are obviously tough enough. Add in the "local derby" factors (us and Wales, the three central European teams) I think we could be looking at a group where the points are dispersed, not unlike our last campaign. And I think Cyprus may nick one or two home points this time.

Therefore I think 2ppg, or marginally less might be enough. Unless I'm bigging us, Slovakia & Wales up too much I don't think this'll be a group like the Holland/Czech/Romania group in WC06 qualification where Romania missed out on 25 points.

Ah, who knows anyway?

I think one or two good away wins will be important (so I'm not Brian Kerr!). Despite the Croker factor I think we are very unlikely to win all the crunch home games.

soccerc, I'm sorry but I'm afraid you'll have to work until you're 72, unless the Clondalkin Gazette goes global. Or maybe Stehpen Quinn, 5 times CL winner as captain of Barcelona will give you his biography rights.

if we manage an away win against one for the four high seeded teams then it is doable , if we beat the germans or the czechs at home that will also be a big boost but i feel the slovakians and the welsh have it in them to ruin it for us , what with the czechs at home and germans away it will be interesting to see what the table is like at xmas...

Fair play Stuttgart, its threads like this that make me log in time and time again into foot.ie. Fair play, great reading.

5 Home wins (excluding Germany) away wins in Cyprus, San Marino = 21 points.

Three points from Germany H & A, Slovakia Cech & Wales away

THAT is POSSIBLE

Im going to book my flights to Basle again, 3rd time lucky in the kip!

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Originally Posted by Forever Dreamin

Im going to book my flights to Basle again, 3rd time lucky in the kip!

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Kip? :confused:

good post and well researched. I expect us to lose one game, possibly Germany away but still feel 24 points is achievable. If Germany do beat us then we certainly want them to beat everyone else as well. Interesting and the excitement starts to grow as we embark on yet another adventure...

There's a small error in the first post: Romania came third on 2.08ppg (25 out of 12), not 2.5ppg as I said.

There were three 7 team (12 match) groups in WC06 qualifying:

The second placed teams in these 3 groups scored 2.25ppg (27 points, Czech Rep.) and 1.92 (23 points, both Turkley & Slovakia).

The following link shows the final outcomes in those groups:

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/....html?zone=eur

I'd contend that our group is more like the Ukraine/Turkey/Denmark/Greece/Albania group or maybe the Portugal/Slovakia/Russia/Estonia/Latvia group than the Holland/Czech/Romania/Finland/Macedonia group, so maybe, just maybe, 23 points will be enough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by totalfootball

I presume you mean 12 match (7 team) groups.

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Yes, of course. Sorry!

To qualify I reckon we need the following to happen:

1. The entire German national squad to be wiped out in some freak travel accident most likely involving an airplane but a coach going off a cliff or something similar would be equally effective.

2. The Czech Republic to invade Slovakia and in the ensuing conflict both teams are to be banned from the competition by UEFA a la Yugoslavia in 92.

3. Cyprus to be overrun completely by the Turks resulting in a protest walkout by the majority of the players and the coaching staff of the national team

I reckon if this occurs it will be a toss up between us and Wales for the second spot in the group.

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Originally Posted by beautifulrock

If Germany do beat us then we certainly want them to beat everyone else as well.

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Oh no, we definitely don't want runaway winners either!! We had that in 1997, when Romania walked all over everyone in the qualifiers, and qualified in August. Only Cascarino's late equaliser in the last game of the group, stopped them from claiming the full 30 points from the campaign. And we still didn't qualify! I want us to be in a competitive group, thank you.

Yeah but we finished 2nd in the group something that would be enough this time around. We went out in a play off to Belgium so a repeat of finishing second would do me thank you.

forget second, we can win this group yet