Salmond's revenge? The 2015 UK Election

With British voters growing to like coalitions, it seems the EU and Scotland will dominate the cross-Channel electoral agenda. Labour will be the largest party, but appear far short of a majority, and though the Tories may poll most votes, the quirks of FPTP all but guarantee runners-up status in seat terms. Ironically, the Lib Dems for once will salvage more MPs under the current system than the mauling resulting from PR, while conversely, UKIP's 15% may only translate into one to three parliamentarians returned. But the comeback king, Alex Salmond, seems the ultimate victor, with most current polls suggesting the SNP winning 40-50 of Scotland's 59 seats, with him potentially becoming the next Deputy PM. A nationalist party holding the balance of power at Westminster - it's like Leaving Cert History all over again!

British voters really do not like coalitions. They are terrified of them. Almost as terrified as the politicians are (if only "hung parliament" was literal!)

This article gives some perspective: www.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk-politics-32045419&h=yAQEGaQeE

The Tories accuse the SNP of "trying to sabotage the democratic will of the British people" by having the temerity to even think about asking for concessions in return for propping up a minority government. And all this on the back of their campaign last year which was based entirely around the idea of the Scots being an integral part of the British People.

I mean, what are the SNP's options here really? Support a minority government no matter what, in which case they're sabotaging the democratic will of the British people who didn't vote that government in with a majority. Oppose it no matter what, which I'm sure would go down really well, or do what they're doing now, which is what happens in every single other country in Europe, and most in the Western world. Sit down, negotiate, and work out a compromise like f***ing adults!

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Originally Posted by peadar1987

British voters really do not like coalitions. They are terrified of them. Almost as terrified as the politicians are (if only "hung parliament" was literal!)

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The 29% who like the idea of coalition is pretty similar to the 33% who many current polls say will vote for a party other than Conservative or Labour.

Slightly harder to explain why a much larger proportion of English voters said yes in the past. Did they not understand the question?

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I mean, what are the SNP's options here really? Support a minority government no matter what, in which case they're sabotaging the democratic will of the British people who didn't vote that government in with a majority. Oppose it no matter what, which I'm sure would go down really well, or do what they're doing now, which is what happens in every single other country in Europe, and most in the Western world. Sit down, negotiate, and work out a compromise like f***ing adults!

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Their options are

1) support Labour informally until the Govt collapses to be replaced by one led by Boris Johnson. SNP vote goes up yet further in next election, triggering another referendum. Or

2) allow a minority Tory govt backed by DUP and maybe UKIP. SNP vote goes up yet further in next election, triggering another referendum. Or see (1)

In the mid-term, it looks like win-win for wee Eck :D

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Originally Posted by Culloty 82

Ironically, the Lib Dems for once will salvage more MPs under the current system than the mauling resulting from PR

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Most polls say they'll hold on to 20- 30 seats. A proportionate total might be:

12% nationally: 78 seats
10%- 65 seats
8%- 52 seats
6%- 39 seats
4%- 26 seats
2%- 13 seats

After 2010's three debates, it's amazing that Cameron managed to get away with a Q & A session tonight on Channel Four, how it'll play with voters is another matter. As for Lilliputian affairs, the only likely changes appear set for East Belfast, and Belfast South, where there would seem to be a natural Unionist majority, but only the former constituency looks a banker at present.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

After 2010's three debates, it's amazing that Cameron managed to get away with a Q & A session tonight on Channel Four, how it'll play with voters is another matter

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Most media actively support the Tory party; most of the rest (partic the BBC) kowtow to it as the Government. Which may be why public support is at 33% and in steady long-term decline...

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As for Lilliputian affairs, the only likely changes appear set for East Belfast, and Belfast South, where there would seem to be a natural Unionist majority, but only the former constituency looks a banker at present

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For Orangeism, see Toryism. Only faster and possibly terminal.

I prefer to look at the Nationalist figures. 41% in BT South last time, and rising (compare East 3%, North 46%, West 88%). Big Al will hold on for the SDLP.

I'd be more sympathetic to Alliance if they challenged the Welfare cuts. As it is, they just lose out with FPTP but there must be a chance it's on the way out even at Westminster.

Starting to turn into an England & Wales election now, as one poll predicts the SNP will do a 1918 SF-style Scottish clean sweep. All rather bland apart from that subplot, but it's becoming clear that the lead party will win the English vote.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Starting to turn into an England & Wales election now, as one poll predicts the SNP will do a 1918 SF-style Scottish clean sweep

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SF won only 73 of the 105 Irish seats in 1918 ;)

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All rather bland apart from that subplot, but it's becoming clear that the lead party will win the English vote

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2010 result, England only:

Tory 40%
Labour 28%
LibDem 24%
UKIP 3%
BNP 2%
Green 1%
Others 2%

We do have Wikipedia!

****.

I gave a more detailed take on matters here, with a focus on the cynical Ulster unionist electoral pacts and Gerry Kelly's ill-conceived electoral leaflet: https://danieldcollins.wordpress.com...an-headcounts/

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I gave a more detailed take on matters here, with a focus on the cynical Ulster unionist electoral pacts and Gerry Kelly's ill-conceived electoral leaflet: https://danieldcollins.wordpress.com...an-headcounts/

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Interesting article. I disagree on a few broad points, including

a) what makes NI politics sectarian is almost everyone voting for single-issue nationality politics. How many from each bloc contest any given election is largely irrelevant. Because you have no greater choice when Nesbitt, Allister and Hutchinson all stand against Robinson than when none do. They're just wings of the Orange Order, not real parties. Recognising that is the only way to justify the previously establishment unionist party not standing in the previously safest unionist seats

b) the SDLP seem to have favored deliberately weak candidates as a nudge to electoral co-operation. Either inexperienced and thus unknown (FST) or semi-retired and not canvassing (East BT). It's not their fault Gildernew lost (there have been rumors of locals unimpressed by her campaign and machine), or that Long however successful couldn't hope to win back the flag protestors. Actually I imagine Long agrees with her party colleagues, if she wants to go into Stormont it should be straightforward after Thursday's vote

c) the ever-increasing nationalist vote isn't, is it? Stuck at 38.4%, like last year. And that's given Orangeism's absurdity, gay-bashing and apathetic 50% turnouts. They're clearly in decline, maybe quite imminent, so what does that say for the Shinner alternative?

http://i827.photobucket.com/albums/z...psu712lnks.jpg

Tick tock...the clock's stopped :D

Yeah, we know. So what? The SNP would do for them.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Most polls say they'll hold on to 20- 30 seats. A proportionate total might be:

12% nationally: 78 seats
10%- 65 seats
8%- 52 seats
6%- 39 seats
4%- 26 seats
2%- 13 seats

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Not quite!

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Interesting article. I disagree on a few broad points, including

a) what makes NI politics sectarian is almost everyone voting for single-issue nationality politics. How many from each bloc contest any given election is largely irrelevant. Because you have no greater choice when Nesbitt, Allister and Hutchinson all stand against Robinson than when none do. They're just wings of the Orange Order, not real parties. Recognising that is the only way to justify the previously establishment unionist party not standing in the previously safest unionist seats

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The PUP’s more working-class-oriented socio-economic outlook would differ significantly from that of the mainstream unionist parties on the right, no? They’d have had wind in their sails after the loyalist flag protests. Yet they decided not to run either, excusing themselves due to supposed lack of finances, of course.

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b) the SDLP seem to have favored deliberately weak candidates as a nudge to electoral co-operation. Either inexperienced and thus unknown (FST) or semi-retired and not canvassing (East BT). It's not their fault Gildernew lost (there have been rumors of locals unimpressed by her campaign and machine), or that Long however successful couldn't hope to win back the flag protestors. Actually I imagine Long agrees with her party colleagues, if she wants to go into Stormont it should be straightforward after Thursday's vote

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I think we’re in agreement that the SDLP cannot be blamed for Sinn Féin’s electoral shortcomings. If Sinn Féin failed to pick up votes (despite Gildernew’s tally having risen by about 1,700 since 2010), that’s solely a Sinn Féin issue. No point pointing fingers of blame elsewhere. I was pretty clear on that.

Interesting theory though; you reckon the SDLP put the unknown and inexperienced Coyle forward (his public appearances/utterances were uninspiring, it has to be said) in the hope many of their their usual or potential voters would actually vote for Gildernew instead? A considerable number still voted for Coyle, mind. And the SDLP have always been very reluctant to fall in line with Sinn Féin, but, then, as you say, your theory suggests the SDLP’s suspected roll-over was anything but overt. Can we be sure the SDLP would have preferred to see the abstentionist Gildernew win the seat over Elliott anyway? The SDLP were very critical of the policy of abstention in the run-up.

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c) the ever-increasing nationalist vote isn't, is it? Stuck at 38.4%, like last year. And that's given Orangeism's absurdity, gay-bashing and apathetic 50% turnouts. They're clearly in decline, maybe quite imminent, so what does that say for the Shinner alternative?

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On the “ever-increasing nationalist threat”, fair point. I was referring more so to the long-term trend, but I do acknowledge the slight recent dip. Whether it’s due to a temporary malaise or whether things will plateau remains to be seen. Obviously, I’d prefer it to be a case of the former with something needed to re-energise the nationalist cause. The inevitable EU referendum might just be that medicine. Perhaps conservative nationalists have been left disillusioned of late by more progressive stances on abortion and same-sex marriage also.

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Originally Posted by Danny invincible

The PUP’s more working-class-oriented socio-economic outlook would differ significantly from that of the mainstream unionist parties on the right, no? They’d have had wind in their sails after the loyalist flag protests. Yet they decided not to run either, excusing themselves due to supposed lack of finances, of course

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The PUP did get three BT councillors elected last year, but two problems- they don't contest other elections as you say, and they're still linked to the gunmen.

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Interesting theory though; you reckon the SDLP put the unknown and inexperienced Coyle forward (his public appearances/utterances were uninspiring, it has to be said) in the hope many of their their usual or potential voters would actually vote for Gildernew instead? A considerable number still voted for Coyle, mind. And the SDLP have always been very reluctant to fall in line with Sinn Féin, but, then, as you say, your theory suggests the SDLP’s suspected roll-over was anything but overt. Can we be sure the SDLP would have preferred to see the abstentionist Gildernew win the seat over Elliott anyway? The SDLP were very critical of the policy of abstention in the run-up

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My mate from Derrygonnelly (UUP supporter) knows Coyle and filled in details after his TV gigs. You can't take the SDLP let alone the Unionist parties seriously on abstentionism: Big Al and most DUP hacks rarely go near Westminster.

The thing we can be confident if not sure about is that SDLP will continue to contest all 18 WM seats, even if some are paper (nominal) candidates. While Mary Muldoon's low vote suggests they were pretty comfortable about Long doing well.

Other reasons for falling Nat vote:

- new Left parties, partic PBP in West Belfast this year; Greens will have more candidates next year
- Alliance revival
- SF#s leadership in Dublin have taken their eye off the ball, rather like Labour in London ignored Scotland


PS Ardee/ Wolfman is quite right, following the opinion polls this time was a mistake :D

What you on about?

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Other reasons for falling Nat vote:

- new Left parties, partic PBP in West Belfast this year; Greens will have more candidates next year
- Alliance revival
- SF#s leadership in Dublin have taken their eye off the ball, rather like Labour in London ignored Scotland


PS Ardee/ Wolfman is quite right, following the opinion polls this time was a mistake :D

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Eamonn Mallie's view on the idea that the current (ethnic-hued) brand of Irish republicanism has peaked is interesting: http://eamonnmallie.com/2015/05/peak-republicanism/

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Originally Posted by Eamonn Mallie

[O]ur antipodean party politics axiomatically precludes one section of the electorate from voting Sinn Fein. Say what you may, but young voters inherit tribal allegiance, and where they break their albatross inheritance they generally go to the liberal alternatives.

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I agree that Irish republicanism must seriously shed its practical ethno-centrism if progress is to be made. Wolfe Tone had no sentiment whatsoever for Gaelic culture. And that's perfectly fine. It should be celebrated but separate(d) and less overtly. The Ulster-Scots and Anglo-Irish traditions should and can also be celebrated too under a broad civic umbrella, like how it was back in the day of battles on cabbage patches and what have you.

Mallie, a self-described "thorough garden centre prod", even admits he was considering voting for Máirtín Ó Muilleoir in south Belfast until he felt mugged by Gerry Kelly's indefensible leaflet.

What does the term "garden centre Protestant" entail exactly? I'm not all that familiar with the nuances of Mallie's background, but Eamonn isn't a traditionally-Protestant name, he's a Gaeilgeoir (modern-day Protestant Gaeilgeoir's aren't numerous in the north notwithstanding Linda Irvine's laudable efforts in east Belfast) and he attended the Christian Boys (Catholic) grammar school in Newry, so he's a cultural Catholic by background, no? Can a cultural Catholic be a "garden centre Protestant"? Is it simply a term to describe soft unionists or middle-class Catholics politically or economically content with the status quo?

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

What does the term "garden centre Protestant" entail exactly?

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Aye, I've always heard it as a vague catch-all term.

Imagine a different variant of the beehive design above, but showing turnout by constituency in the election:

Fermanagh & Tyrone S 72.6%

National Average 66.1%

Newry and Armagh 64.3%
Belfast East 62.8%
West Tyrone 60.5%
Mid Ulster 60.3%
Belfast South 60.0%
Belfast North 59.2%
Upper Bann 59.0%
South Down 56.8%
Belfast West 56.4%
North Down 56.0%
Lagan Valley 55.9%
North Antrim 55.2%
South Antrim 54.2%
East Antrim 53.3%
Foyle 52.8%
Strangford 52.8%
East Londonderry 51.9%

Other than in dreary steeple land, people just don't give a fcuk. I'm surprised it's still over 50% everywhere to be honest...