Euro 2016 Qualifying

I posted about this in the "Trap's replacement" thread, but it's probably worth a thread for discussion of its own, especially with round 7 of a scrap over Darron Gibson and whataboutery about to get underway between SvD and Irwin over there! :p

GreenScene.me have just published this Euro 2016 qualifying seeding predictions list: http://greenscene.me/2013/09/euro-20...g-predictions/

It potentially sees us as the highest ranked team in the third pot based on World Cup 2010 results (weighted at 20 per cent of the ranking points total), Euro 2012 results (weighted at 40 per cent) and World Cup 2014 results (also weighted at 40 per cent). For some reason, I'd feared our current FIFA ranking within UEFA would play a more significant role in dictating our seeding. If our seeding was dependent on that, I'm pretty certain we'd have been in pot four.

Anyway, the draw for the qualification groups is set for the 23rd of February, 2014.

They haven't made any decision on the qualifying format correct? 23 places to fill. Can only assume the number of qualifying groups will be extended and the top two going in automatically.

Could see ten groups maybe. Top six third place teams play-off?

This was an earlier prediction made in June by Football-Rankings.info: http://www.football-rankings.info/20...eeding-14.html

It also states:

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The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

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A five team group, only eight games, where more than half the teams could qualify? Would be interesting.

Going by those Greenscene predictions: Greece, Hungary, Finland, Lithuania and Gibraltar would be the dream ticket for qualifying and travelling.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

with round 7 of a scrap over Darron Gibson and whataboutery about to get underway between SvD and Irwin over there! :p

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It went the distance, unfortunately for everyone. :bulgy:

A trip to Gibraltar would be lovely. I'd say tickets would be hard to come by though.

Seeds1:
Avoid: Everyone!
Buy, Buy, Buy: Croatia, Greece

Seeds2: Really tough pool of teams.
Avoid: Belgium, Ukraine, France, Bosnia
Buy, Buy, Buy: Sweden, Serbia, Czech's, Hungary (not as weak as they seem)

Seeds4:
Avoid: Poland, Scotland,
Buy, Buy, Buy: Albania, Estonia, Latvia, Wales,

Seeds5: tough group of "weak" seeds:
Avoid: Belarus; Iceland (good youth teams coming through, and still on course to make playoffs); the North.
Buy, Buy, Buy: Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia

Seeds6:
Avoid: Cyprus - we just don't need to go there. Gibralter - They might be gash, but let someone else have them first time out.

best case scenario: Greece, Hungary, Estonia, Azerbaijan, San Marino - oooh!
worst case scenario: Spain, Belgium, Poland, Northern Ireland, Cyprus - ugh!

We could beat the bottom three, even in the 'worst case' scenario...

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

We could beat the bottom three, even in the 'worst case' scenario...

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Would hate to have to do it though. Sack any accusations of luck, I'll take a jammy draw any day especially with a new manager coming in.

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

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immaterial, even the "weaker" sides we're drawn against get annointed as heirs to the Barcelona/Bayern/Brazil/Ajax throne by journalists here, see Macedonia, etc

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

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i thought we were fairly lucky with the groups we've got until this one, where i always felt would be hard to overcome sweden, and with little prospect of getting anything off germany who hammer all comers in qualifying (as do spain and holland recently).

regards the rankings - as france are auto qualified, does that make us 2nd seeds?

There's a fella on ybig who worked it out that we are dependent on Norway and Turkey not winning their two remaining matches - taking it that we lose to the Germans and we beat Kazakhstan, to be second seeds.

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Originally Posted by zero

regards the rankings - as france are auto qualified, does that make us 2nd seeds?

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Nah, I initially thought that myself, but you'll notice GreenScene included an extra spot in pot two, which is occupied by France, of course. Each other pot has one team less than the number in the second pot.

Here's a good question with this: 12 months from now, Qualifying for Euro starts, right? What is your best case scenerio for Irelands starting lineup? What players do you hope take the next step over the next year, come back into the fold, or keep their spots, etc? Gun to your head.....who would you love (or at least like) to see as Irelands Starting Eleven from where we are right now?

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Originally Posted by Bungle

There's a fella on ybig who worked it out that we are dependent on Norway and Turkey not winning their two remaining matches - taking it that we lose to the Germans and we beat Kazakhstan, to be second seeds.

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Well both of them must win their final two games to get into the play-offs, but I think neither will get 2/2. Norway face Iceland, who will only need a point away to Norway to make the playoff(they've Cyprus at home first), and Slovenia away.
The Turks are going to have to beat Holland at home to make playoff as Hungary are a point ahead with a better head to head and face Andorra the same night the Turks face Holland.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

immaterial, even the "weaker" sides we're drawn against get annointed as heirs to the Barcelona/Bayern/Brazil/Ajax throne by journalists here, see Macedonia, etc

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Do they?
Honestly. If they write that, are only worthy of ignoring...

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

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Sadly I think we've already had our once in 10 years dose of luck getting to the euros.

The collapse of Slovakia, the miracle in Moscow, the hilarious last game v the very improved Armenia with a fantastic own goal and a red card that never should have been awarded, and then the holiest of holies a play off against Estonia.

Reckon we're gonna have to do it by playing well instead:doctor:

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Originally Posted by as_i_say

Sadly I think we've already had our once in 10 years dose of luck getting to the euros.

The collapse of Slovakia, the miracle in Moscow, the hilarious last game v the very improved Armenia with a fantastic own goal and a red card that never should have been awarded, and then the holiest of holies a play off against Estonia.

Reckon we're gonna have to do it by playing well instead:doctor:

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you conveniently ignore the very decent 1-1 draw away to slovakia and impressive win away to armenia in that campaign. you also ignore that we earned the right to be seeded in the play-off draw hence the Estonia draw for us.

one of our players (richard dunne) playing unbelievably well to greatly help us get a draw in Moscow (where most teams come back with nothing) isnt necessarily a miracle. teams rely on great individual performances all the time.... alaba in both our austria matches immediately comes to mind

agree re: Armenia away certainly and I remember that game well. It was a perfect away performance against a team far better than us technically and who beat Slovakia home and away. But after that game though, it was all downhill for us I think. Moscow was a miracle, not just Dunne. I 've never seen a team get pummelled like that for an entire 90 mins and not concede at least 1 goal.

Fair enough re seeding, I had forgotten that but still any luck we missed out on in Paris we got in spades to get to Euro 2012 imo