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Right lads, the range I'm getting from people for recovery is varying from 6 months to 10 years, both of which I consider ridiculous, so I reckon it's time we nailed our colours to the mast. Place your bets.
[EDIT: The definition I'm going with is 2 quarters of positive growth, i.e. above inflation. I reckon it'll be mid- to late-2010.]
adam
Anytime now...
At least 5 years, probably more.
If we're defining it as two quarters of positive growth I'll go with 2 years.
End of 2010 before any recovery, next year will be very tough.
Slowdowns last a couple of years, recessions take much longer to turn around.
While 2 positive quarters may technically be "growth", it will be much longer before Mr/Mrs Average see the benefits.
Depends how you define it.
If you define it as asset prices breaching previous highs then I would say at least 5 years for equities and 10-15 for Irish property.
I don't see this as a particularly conservative estimate either.
If its simply positive GDP growth then 2011. But its the pace of economic growth that is important (obviously after everythings stops falling) and I can't see that being particularly robust.
March the 16th 2010 so about 1 year and 4 months
next year is just over 6 weeks away - so yeah 12 months more of this perpetual state of anxiety before we're out of the wilderness...and with that kind of shock treatment to the credit boom generation, don't expect any return to property mania for a long long time after that
Whats a slowdown, other than an artificial construct of an estate agent desperate for business?Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Economies go in cycles which invariably have a recession in there somewhere.
Can't find a definition. I would guess official recovery as positive GNP growth (i.e. above inflation) ?
I'll got for 2nd half of 2010 based on such a definition.
Our government is contracting the economy by withdrawing money from it so we are more dependent on World economic recovery more than ever.
A slowdown is what we had between 2001-2003. This recession though has already gone on for 2 solid years, and has a good deal longer to run.Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
GDP deflation has only started this year, which is the usual definition.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Agree though that if you look at property assets we're coming up on two years. Unemployment midway between the two?
Ireland's successful World Cup campaign of 2010 will bring the feelgood factor back so we'll say Autumn 2010.
Absolutely not, prices were - still are - artificially high, should never have reached the levels they did, and we shouldn't use them as a benchmark.Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
That sounds like a good definition to me, let's make it 2 quarters of positive GNP growth. The economist blognerds can tell us we're wrong when they find us.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
I think you may be right, but I'm planning to buy in early 2010 just in case.Quote:
I'll got for 2nd half of 2010 based on such a definition.
As ORA pointed out, we only went into recession this year, and it was only confirmed in the last two months. 2 quarters of negative growth, it really isn't much more complicated than that. Economists may argue about the nigling details, but I don't think we're allowed.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
adam
Even before the last election, the downward economic spiral had begun. Although people haven't seen the effects of that until this year. 2 positive quarters may technically constitute growth, but until jobs are created, unemployment falls, people stop getting taxed* on their income, and can afford what they were able to 5 years ago, can we say we have recovered from the recession. That will take a good deal longer than 2 technical periods of economic growth.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
*1-2%
No chance we have been in recession for the last 2 years. Things have been on downward slide but that only really picked up pace in last 6 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Recessions seem to be all about keeping your job & riding it out.
I think some posted elsewhere that land prices have been reducing rapidly which can only be a good thing of the long term future of the country.
No one is arguing that the economy started slowing some time ago, but that's not the same as a recession. A recession has come to be accepted as a very specific thing, and I know it's pedantic to argue the point but I don't see why we should perpetuate a defintion that's only bandied about by crap "economists" in the Star and it's ilk.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
adam
What do you mean exactly? Property or shares? Was going to buy shares myself now and make a profit in a few years but may wait if the price will go down further...Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
House. Been putting it off for years.