You know what else is not going to stimulate the economy? National bankruptcy.
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You know what else is not going to stimulate the economy? National bankruptcy.
Something else that doesn't stimulate the economy is scaremongering.
We know the position we're in, but it's important not to blow it out of all proportion. We are not bankrupt, nor are we needing the IMF. We may need it in the future, but you don't go from growth to bankrupt over 6 months, it takes several years to get from one end of the scale to the other. That was the case in the boom, and is the case now as well.
Was impressed with Labour's suggestions last night, but with the government focussing on training than stimulating, little can be done about the situation until Labour get FF out.
Which is still 3 years away. :o
we don't know where we are because we are being drip fed by the Government information that is historical and not reflective of the true picture. (the Government themselves say they only look at Tax take @ month end!!) We also have been in negitive growth now for about 12 months, it's just we needed two conseqitive quarters before they clowns would admit it. Ulster bank reckon we are looking at -8% this year, Alan Ahern says wages and other income need to fall 10% to confirm a depression so we still have a bit to go. I for one am for direct tax hikes (short term) vat reduction to 20% and keep it there and a natural cul of the public sector. We have to get back to competitive manufacturing again, fast, though this will take 3 -5 years provided the rest of the world picks up. I would also use some of the pension reserve where ever necessary, & have courage in our conviction and pay it back to future generations at a rate just less than the current rate it costs to borrow. My point here is we are paying over the odds on the money markets for cash, we should use or own and pay it back as we would a normal creditor (i think they call it IIR in leaving cert pass accountancy!)Quote:
We know the position we're in, but it's important not to blow it out of all proportion. We are not bankrupt, nor are we needing the IMF. We may need it in the future, but you don't go from growth to bankrupt over 6 months, it takes several years to get from one end of the scale to the other. That was the case in the boom, and is the case now as well.
I really don't think we do. At least with any certainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Unfortunately the key decision makers in this country (in Government and in businesses), are by and large, not at the races intellectually and are really struggling to keep up.
Obviously there are exceptions but having got into the same problem in the same way as many other countries, we're setting ourselves apart in how we are dealing with it. And not in a good way.
I do agree that job creation is important, but I see Governments role in that as more medium-long term (at least as long as its private sector job creation we are talking about) and in relation to taxes, income tax levels have very little impact on job creation (obviously corporation tax is very relevant).
I think when the government talks about training they ony see the amount of money spent & take no account of whether the training is relevant. The fact that this has largely been outsourced to FAS with no oversight seems to back that up.
While tax increases are required I think the government also need to do something to encourage investment & jobs creation. Cutting CGT, Employers PRSI or some encentive to employ new staff might help. Tacx breaks for property developers to build more will not help.
They don't have a direct impact on job creation, but do have in terms of revenue.Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
Tax increases = less disposable income = less money for people to spend = less revenue for the government. Less money to spend = less products sold = less income for employers = job losses = no new jobs created. Then the cycle goes round and round and round.
Tax increases do nothing whatsoever for stimulating economies. Training programmes are useless if the trainees can't get jobs as a result.
1) The drop in spending that reduces indirect taxation is offset (to whatever extent) by the extra income tax the government collect.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
2) In a liquidity trap (as we are now) the inescapable fact is that people would save the money that would have been paid in income tax in any case, ergo increasing direct taxation is the only option to raise the overall tax take.
Agreed, but it this case the negative effect is the least worst option.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Unless you can come up with an economic argument that backs up your point there's nowhere else this argument can go.
A drop in VAT rates would be the most pointless change as retailers will just put into their back pockets.
Depends how far you drop them. In the UK retailers in some markets - cars is one example - have decided to use the low VAT rate as a selling point, by offering products with "no VAT". That is, they're discounting by the VAT rate.
I don't know how successful it is, but it's a nice sales pitch anyway.
adam
And what is wrong with that with so many going out of business and letting people go? They could choose to pass it on though 1.5% would mean nack all to the consumer or leave prices the same and make a few extra bob which was where I was coming from. (i am not in retail trade btw) 21.5% is simply to high.Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Eh, why wouldn't they leave it with their Training authority? Experience suggests it's better for this Government, to keep it's grubby mits out of direct control (Political interference is one the problems in many semi states, not the solution!)Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Just saying there was clearly no oversight in how the top boyos in FAS spent their money. Same could be said for many other semi state bodies. It doesn't take away from the work FAS people do there should be joined up thinking i.e. government policy should be linked to training policies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Because they were, and still are politically bullet proof due to how connected they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Next figures out at 11 o'clock. Expect another 20-25k added on the scrapheap.
should be be betting on this?:)
2/5 it will hit 13% by the end of the year?
Could we hit 400k today?
Don't think so. But can I ask how this example is represtented in the employment/unemployment figures?
10000 People in a town. 5000 are working, 2000 unemployed and 3000 in school,college,OAP etc. On April 6th 2009 three companies who collectivelly employ 2000 people go on short time, three day which becomes one week in two for paid employment. This means there is only out putof 1000 people for the duration of short time in those 3 companies. How is the other 1000 recoreded in the unemployment figures?
UP 20,000
Total Now 372,800
With Dell almost ready to start laying off and the impact on the surrounding area we could see the biggest monthly rise in history soon.
Spoke to a guy from Limerick yesterday and he told me that Dell was worth over 50k a year to him alone without the money he receives from suppliers to Dell and he is only a small opeartor with 3 employees
I don;t disagree but it can't get much worse surely. 1000 people a day? over the next two months would mean about 420,000 unemployed by half year. Surely our public service need a certain level of employment in the economy to satisfy their wants and needs! February was me worst month in business, March up about 35% on Feb and down only 6% on last March.
Just heard Eammon Keane on Newstalk explain that unemployment figures represent all those getting assistance i.e short time etc, this is my question above answered.
[FONT=TimesNewRoman-Bold][SIZE=2][LEFT]The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment.
It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured
[SIZE=2][FONT=TimesNewRoman]by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted
Got this off the CSO
That shouldn't deflect from the seriousness of the situation. Most of those people simply have no work at all.
It's 5 weeks til the next figures, so an extra week, so at current rates, you're looking at 395,000 on 6 May. That's before the figures at Dell, SR Technics, and Dublin Bus are taken into account.
The government's commitment to salvaging jobs, is to say, there is little chance of a fall in the coming months. Mon dieu!! :eek:
Lazy. Clueless. Incompetent. Ineffective.
[QUOTE]
I agree 100% obviously. Heard a chap on RTE with Sean O Rourke at lunch time, Dr/Prof Fred ??(don't remember his surname, English Gentleman). He reckons we are in the sh*t big time becuase of the policy's being set out currently. Said we should be taxing land but George Lee and himself disagreed 100% on the best way out of this. What is interesting is this guy is doing a lecture in Trinity tomorrow i think - and in truth i think he was saving his analysis / solution till then. Would go if I lived in the Pale.Quote:
That shouldn't deflect from the seriousness of the situation.Quote:
[QUOTE=Fr Damo;1135009]He deserves listening to if only because he wrote a book 18 months ago which predicted fairly accurately what has played out since then.Quote:
I agree 100% obviously. Heard a chap on RTE with Sean O Rourke at lunch time, Dr/Prof Fred ??(don't remember his surname, English Gentleman). He reckons we are in the sh*t big time becuase of the policy's being set out currently. Said we should be taxing land but George Lee and himself disagreed 100% on the best way out of this. What is interesting is this guy is doing a lecture in Trinity tomorrow i think - and in truth i think he was saving his analysis / solution till then. Would go if I lived in the Pale.
However I don't see a property tax as anything near a silver bullet.
Government to tackle welfare fraud
Crazy that Photo ID was not required up to now.Quote:
Photo identification is to be required for those collecting social welfare payments after over a tenth of claims that were investigated were found to be bogus.
Fraud investigations in eight areas of the State that began in March saw more than 2,200 claimants examined, and of those 275 have had their claims suspended and are no longer entitled to claim a benefit, or are under continuing investigation.
Also ID will not stop someone flying in from abroad to collect cheque & flying back on same day.
Will such a massive budget you would think anti-fraud measures would be a lot better. If 10% fraud was common across the system would be a huge sum of money.
I've no problem with it, and whilst they're at it, all social welfare should have to be collected in person using the same system. It keeps the post offices open, and whilst it would be inconvenient for some it would make it harder to abuse the system.
However, lest we forget, who was in power when all these payments went direct without face to face contact, in order to save money? :rolleyes:
Any one entitled to job seekers allowance should be paid it as that is what we all pay PRSI for but fraud should removed.
I remember claiming for couple of months at tail end of 2004 & aside from initial application I never had to collect anything in person as was deposited in my account every week.
I always wondered that if I did not tell them how long it would have taken them to discover I had a job & didn't need the payment anymore.
For initial application the welfare office not a nice visit. The ignorance from the staff towards others was staggering especially to not-Irish people.
When they got your tax returns after your first payment, so you have to go to them in person and tell them.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Photo ID has always been required, as you need a passport or driving licence with your application.
The problem now, is there is too much bureaucracy holding up the processing of claims. If you live at home, it's not enough to bring utility bills, you need a "parents note" as well. Why?? :confused:
If people had to go in person every week to collect their money, it would have to be less viable for (albeit probably overstated) foreign fraudsters to cheat the system. As with previous recessions, I'd say people claiming while working in the black economy is more of an issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Presumably the utility bill is to prove residence. If you're not on that I don't see why it's an issue to ask the person listed whether you're resident or not? Delays are only going to get worse with the stupid across the board recruitment embargo.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
You need the utility bill, (within 3 months :rolleyes:) a parents note, and your bank statement, along with everything else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
That and the recruitment embargo, is what's taking claims up to 14 weeks to process. There has been little if any, new recruits inspecting claims. They've been mostly re-directed from other duties.
It's probably a pain in the arse, but I have to say that doesn't seem excessive imo. To get a library card you need proof of address ffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
No problem with needing a proof of address, it's the lengths they go to before being satisfied with it, is what's annoying.
Well boys, I shall soon be joining this category! I have through to the end of this month and then I am on notice.
Anybody else see this in the indo?
Link
Yeah had have you not read the retor and the absolute rubbish that letter was and the nonsense that this guy spouted on Boards.ie, check out the budget thread.
Must have been on every forum by now.Quote:
Originally Posted by reder
Just underlines again, what the attitude is towards social welfare, with false information given by those in current employment.
For the first time I can remember, there will be 2 monthly unemployment figures released this month, when the "April" :confused: figures are released today. Cue much wailing and arguing for the day in the Dail and on news shows, before the focus returns to the public finances on Thursday. Unemployment in Ireland today is an endurance test, not a one-day break. The only question is will the 400k barrier be broken today, or next month?
RTE News reports that Boyle is the town with the longest wait for JA claims to be processed in the country, at a staggering 19 weeks.
ERSI says unemployment to hit 17%
Are ESRI predictions normally correct? Probably been 15 years since saw unemployment at those numbers. Will surely see a lot more emigration at those rates.Quote:
Unemployment in Ireland will rise to almost 17 per cent next year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) says in a report published today.
The ESRI forecast that Ireland will experience the sharpest fall in economic growth of any industrialised country since the Great Depression.
“Our forecasts suggest that Ireland’s economy will contract by around 14 per cent over the three years 2008 to 2010. By historic and international standards this is a truly dramatic development.
Maybe but where to ? Most other countries are experiencing similar strife. On the one hand it's easier for EU nationals to move within the block than say 15 years ago, but why move to say France if there are hardly any jobs there ??Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
The US and Australia used to be attractive destinations but there are massive problems in these places too. US Unemployment is eeking towards 10% (may even be at that now).
difficulty this time round is with emmigration there's not really anywhere to go in the short term - in all reality anyone who's worked in a low skilled environment is going to find it very difficult to find work, that's the worrying thing.