World Cup draw

i think we should let the fai and venables work the fixture timetable around venables's media engagements and the many pies he has fingers in.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Georgia - Poor enough, it must be acknowledged, except for one worrying thought. That recent game where they beat Scotland might not be just "one of those things". Apparently the Coach decided the Old Guard needed shifting out and threw in the youngsters instead. (There were at least two 17-year-olds). It might be best to avoid them early on, at least before a couple of beatings takes the youthful optimism and lack of fear out of them?


By contrast, I'd have to admit NI's Draw was about as kind as we could have expected - compensation for Euro2008?

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Georgia had a 16 yr old, a 17 yr old keeper, another 17 yr old and an 18 yr old centre half playing against Scotland. Yikes.

And I really think ye got a great draw. If your form against the weaker teams improves even slightly I reckon ye have a chance of 2nd.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Ouch! Have to say that having got a reasonably "easy" draw for Euro2008, this WC Draw has exacted its revenge on you.

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You think? Germany and Italy would be of similar quality I'd think and the Czechs are a much better side than Bulgaria. I don't see how this could be considered a harder group than the last one.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

By contrast, I'd have to admit NI's Draw was about as kind as we could have expected - compensation for Euro2008?

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I cannot agree with that statement. Slovakia are up and down but very good on their day. Slovenia are also good as fifth seeds come. Poland always seem to qualify for tournament finals as do the Czechs.

Northern Ireland have a chance if they can play as they did in the Euro 2008 campaign, of course, but you could certainly have got a better group. Greece got lucky again getting the easiest group. They must be the weakest team to qualify for so many major tournaments in a generation and they'll probably do it again.

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Originally Posted by cavan_fan

I'm fairly happy. If you take Italy out, then the question is could we win a group containing Bulgaria, Georgia, Cyprus and Montenegro and I think yes we could. Bulgaria have a few star players but in those terms so do we. I'd give a well run Irish team a fighting chance in this group.

I was comparing it to the last group and I think it's easier (not surprisingly since there are more groups this time and so the quality is more distributed. (By the way as a parting shot to Stan, we'd have been fourth seeds under the previous system, 4 year plan my a*se)

Italy vs Germany - Not much in it but in a way I'd pick Italy here. They seem to have made heavy work of qualifying for a few tournaments recently whcih Germany rarely do. In the end both are class teams and should qualify.

Bulgaria vs Czech Republic - Probably the most improtant comparison. Bulgaria are probably a coming team whereas we thought (and I still do) the Czech's had their best days behind them. As someone else has said the 2 Petrov's, Bojinov and Berbatov are a formidable set of forwards, but there defence may not be as great. I think I'd take Bulgaria over the Czechs two years ago, but I could look very stupid. I do remember however being told by many people on here how the Slovak's were going to be a great sode etc etc. We seem to sometimes overestimate the unknown.

Cyprus vs. Cyprus (I know they were fifth seeds and are now fourth seeds but it makes sense to compare). Oddly I think Cyprus are a much easier proposition this time. We had 2 odd matches against them. In the first we went in thinking we were playing some minnows and could p*ss about. We were obviously wrong but we did teach the other teams in the group a lesson. How different might it have been if they had already got their draw against Germany. The second game was a dire performance, to my mind the worst I have ever seen from us but we still drew with them. If we are capable of playing like that agains we wont qualify whoever is in oru group but I think we should aim for 6 points here.

Slovakia vs. Georgia. Anyone who saw Georgia play Scotland will have a false impression of them. They did draw with Ukraine but lost twice to Lithuania and their main strike threat is Arveladze. Admittedly Slovakia were poo too but Georgia are a weak team that again should not worry a well run side.

Wales vs. Montenegro. Dont play Montenegro first. Let Italy play them first, then get in. They have some good results in friendlies and are no 6th seed but as someone pointed out their population is 600,000. They have one good payer in Vucinic, the rest play for clubs that eL teams would expect to beat. Would rather have Montenegro than Wales any time.

San Marino vs no-one. In reality the Euro group was also a 6 team group as everyone got 6 points against San Marino (some easier than others). I'm glad we dont have a joke team this time as it is no win situation.

So all in all an easier group than one where we came third. We can qualify if we are well run, start well and get 4 poitns off Bulgaria.

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We were fifth seeds for the Euro 2008 group, Cyprus were sixth. Your post should read Wales vs Georgia and Cyprus vs Montenegro.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Ouch! Have to say that having got a reasonably "easy" draw for Euro2008, this WC Draw has exacted its revenge on you.

Italy - Best team in the entire Draw, will qualify in 1st place no doubt, so no outside chance of ROI somehow sneaking into 1st place (e.g. following the other teams cancelling each other out)

Bulgaria - Can't say I know much about them, other than their ECQ form was excellent, they seem to be on the up-and-up and they've got Berbatov - be afraid, be very afraid! (I've been watching Spurs for nearly 25 years now, and seen some top strikers in that time - Lineker, Sheringham, Klinnsmann etc - but in terms of sheer all-round talent, Berba may be the best of the lot, even if he needs a move to a better side to realise it fully)

Cyprus - Everyone is saying that the ROI won't fear them/will be out for revenge etc, which is true enough. But I still think this overlooks some decent performances by Cyprus in other games. Plus the fact that Cyprus won't fear ROI, either.

Georgia - Poor enough, it must be acknowledged, except for one worrying thought. That recent game where they beat Scotland might not be just "one of those things". Apparently the Coach decided the Old Guard needed shifting out and threw in the youngsters instead. (There were at least two 17-year-olds). It might be best to avoid them early on, at least before a couple of beatings takes the youthful optimism and lack of fear out of them?

Montenegro - The bottom seed that NOBODY wanted. History is full of examples of new countries bursting from the traps at 100 mph - Slovenia, Latvia, even the Faroes!

By contrast, I'd have to admit NI's Draw was about as kind as we could have expected - compensation for Euro2008?

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Don't think our group is as bad as all that, Italy can be got at as Scotland showed last week. You never know what you're going to get with Italy so we could take something from them.

Bulgaria are not as good as the czechs, montenegro are an unknown quantity alright but would still fancy us to beat them.

Have to say, you got very lucky with your group, you should fancy your chances.

I'd say there'll be some amount of Poles looking for away tickets and hopping on the train from Dublin for that game, the Polish community here are chuffed with it!

I think this is a reasonable group for us.

With the exception of Italy, we should be more than capable of winning all our home games. We should also have reasonable chances of winning our away games in Georgia, Cyprus and Montenegro. I watched Montenegro play a friendly against a second string Swedish side a month or so back and they look useful enough for a pot 6 team but we are capable of taking six points of them. Think Iceland and that's how good Montenegro are.

Recent results and "achievements" by Cyprus and Georgia are more down to opposition short-comings than these teams becoming better. If we can appoint a manager that can organise the team we can win home and away against Cyprus and Georgia.

IMO a goal of 20 points is realistic but maybe I should reserve judgement until the new manager is appointed.

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

Didn't stop us getting early games against the Dutch, Russians, French and Germans away the last 4 campaigns, I'm sure they'd all have had similar trhoughts. There's always give and take.

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The points tally from that trip down memory lane makes me think that maybe taking on the big guns straight out of the traps may not be such a brilliant idea after all.......


Anyway, my point was, Italy are (cliche alert!) 'slow starters' . We know this. the Bulgarians know this. The Italians know we know this. We know Bulgaria know this. The Italians know we know the Bulgarians know this.

If I were Italy, Id slink off to Pod or Nicosia in balmy September for a 'warm up' to try and get a few points on the board for intimidation purposes (they are world champions, and are therefore entitled to be pretentious), and leave the Paddys and the Bulgars to Kick their heels in Georgia & ruminate over lost chances and "grand plans" gone arsways.

It may not happen, but you never know.

Today's word is "know"

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Originally Posted by Schumi

You think? Germany and Italy would be of similar quality I'd think and the Czechs are a much better side than Bulgaria. I don't see how this could be considered a harder group than the last one.

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Italy are a cut above Germany. They won the WC there, after all, whereas Germany only got to the semis, despite home advantage and Klinsi's inspirational leadership. Also, in Euro2008 qualifying, they topped a much harder Group than Germany's, who only finished second. (This was primarily due to Germany dropping sloppy points in easy/dead games in a way which previous German sides hardly ever did. Whereas Italy did what was needed)

And whilst the Czechs were a better side than Bulg in Autumn 2006, I think they're now in decline, whereas Bulg may be on the up. Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bulg were better than the (ageing) Czechs by the time WC2010 qualification ends.

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Originally Posted by Bondvillain

Anyway, my point was, Italy are (cliche alert!) 'slow starters' . We know this. the Bulgarians know this. The Italians know we know this. We know Bulgaria know this. The Italians know we know the Bulgarians know this.

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Very good:D Got a good laugh out of it!

Contrary to what most people are saying, I hope we play Italy in our final games, September/October 09.... hopefully they will have qualification sown up by then and would not too worried by losing to us.

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Originally Posted by Kingdom

What will stand to us is that any points gained against Montenegro will be discounted if we are in contention for a playoff place and there are some tougher groups than ours, so IF!! we were to come 2nd I'd be confident we wouldn't be the worst runner up.

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..only if Montenegro finish bottom.

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Originally Posted by Armando

..only if Montenegro finish bottom.

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Noted Armando, I'm just not good with the edit button. :)

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

Italy can be got at as Scotland showed last week.

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Er, Italy beat Scotland last week, as well as at home, unlike France, who lost home and away to them.

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

You never know what you're going to get with Italy so we could take something from them.

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Sorry, but all bar the top teams know exactly what they're going to get from Italy: Beaten! They haven't failed to qualify for a WCF since 1958 (when NI eliminated them!;)); indeed the only two times they didn't top their Group, they were only a point behind the leaders but miles ahead of third. If ROI get a point at home, that will be well-earned. As for in Italy... When did ROI last win a competitive match away to a top ranking team?

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

Bulgaria are not as good as the czechs, montenegro are an unknown quantity alright but would still fancy us to beat them.

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As I've said elsewhere, I think Bulg may be improving and the Czechs in decline. And you took one point from the Czechs.
As for Montenegro, you may well be right about beating them. But you'd have to fancy your chances of beating the other 6th Seeds even more highly.

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

Have to say, you got very lucky with your group, you should fancy your chances.

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Agreed about the draw - should finish third, but with a reasonable chance of 2nd. Our away from is too poor to have any chance of 1st, mind, and will likely be responsible if we miss out on 2nd.

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

I'd say there'll be some amount of Poles looking for away tickets and hopping on the train from Dublin for that game, the Polish community here are chuffed with it!

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Aye, but they'll need to be quick to outpace all the Poles already in NI, never mind those in GB (1/4 million?), never mind 40 million Poles, er, in Poland, only a Ryanair flight away!

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Italy are a cut above Germany. They won the WC there, after all, whereas Germany only got to the semis, despite home advantage and Klinsi's inspirational leadership. Also, in Euro2008 qualifying, they topped a much harder Group than Germany's, who only finished second. (This was primarily due to Germany dropping sloppy points in easy/dead games in a way which previous German sides hardly ever did. Whereas Italy did what was needed)

And whilst the Czechs were a better side than Bulg in Autumn 2006, I think they're now in decline, whereas Bulg may be on the up. Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bulg were better than the (ageing) Czechs by the time WC2010 qualification ends.

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Well it remains to be seen. Italy will likely lose a couple of players after the Euros. The Germans still have quite a young side that is getting better all the time. They are definitely a "coming team". The Germans only finished 2nd in our group as they took their foot of the pedal in the last couple of matches mindful of being thrown into the same seeding pool as Austria and Switzerland and possibly getting drawn in a group of death. They were definitely the best team in our group IMO but were content to take 2nd place. It's a bit irrevelant anyway as the vast majority of first seeds are going to win their groups so with the best will in the world we're not going to be challenging for top spot either way.

The Czechs have some players who are getting on but some useful young players coming through as well. I actually thought they might show their age a little in our group but they didn't at all. They still look fairly sprightly. Bulgaria I haven't seen play in a while but I would still think the Czechs are better than them.

I think you could probably say the Italians are a bit better than the Germans and the Czechs are a bit better than the Bulgarians but realistically our main battle is going to be with the Bulgarians. Not the Italians.

We don't have a real minnow in our group that you could say is 6 guaranteed points. That much is true but Georgia and Cyprus probably aren't as good as the Slovakians. The Slovaks big problem is that they are brilliant one day. Not very good the next. Looking at it this way if we were drawn in NI's group I'd be feeling pretty much the same way about our chances. We'd have a reasonable chance of claming 2nd spot if we perform. No more. No less.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Er, Italy beat Scotland last week, as well as at home, unlike France, who lost home and away to them.

Sorry, but all bar the top teams know exactly what they're going to get from Italy: Beaten! They haven't failed to qualify for a WCF since 1958 (when NI eliminated them!); indeed the only two times they didn't top their Group, they were only a point behind the leaders but miles ahead of third. If ROI get a point at home, that will be well-earned. As for in Italy... When did ROI last win a competitive match away to a top ranking team?

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No sh1t Sherlock, I didn't say they lost, I said they can be got at, the scots were all over them in the second half and, notwithstanding earlier errors by the officials, would have earned a draw were it not for an embarrassing decision to give Italy a free kick when the foul had clearly been committed by the Italian. What relevance is France to this debate?

Italy drew at home to Lithuania this campaign and only won 2-1 against the Faroes. Drew with Scotland and struggled against Moldova and Slovenia campaign before. Lost to Wales prior to that and had another draw with Lithuania as far as I recall. 'All bar the top teams'? Nonsense.

As for using out last campaign as any sort of benchmark you can forget about it given the inadequacies of the manager, a lot will depend on the ability of the new man to get the best out of a clearly underperforming squad. I don't fancy our chances should the wrong man be put in charge.

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Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er

No sh1t Sherlock, I didn't say they lost, I said they can be got at, the scots were all over them in the second half and, notwithstanding earlier errors by the officials, would have earned a draw were it not for an embarrassing decision to give Italy a free kick when the foul had clearly been committed by the Italian. What relevance is France to this debate?

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They might have got a draw if they'd done a basic marking job for the free kick!

Can we drop the plucky/unlucky Scotland were done by the officials bit? Scotlands goal was a yard or more offside, Italy had a perfectly good goal ruled out, the decisions went both ways and the best team won.

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Originally Posted by endabob1

Can we drop the plucky/unlucky Scotland were done by the officials bit? Scotlands goal was a yard or more offside, Italy had a perfectly good goal ruled out, the decisions went both ways and the best team won.

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i think the point that it is possible to get something off them is valid all the same.

a lot will depend when we play them, iff they need a result i would expect them to turn us over, however if they are not too bothered (perhaps early on in the group) or if they have qualified then they will be happy enough to play out for a draw.

italian teams are masters of just doing enough, hopefully we get them at a time when enough (for them) is very little and then you never know.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Er, Italy beat Scotland last week, as well as at home, unlike France, who lost home and away to them.



Sorry, but all bar the top teams know exactly what they're going to get from Italy: Beaten! They haven't failed to qualify for a WCF since 1958 (when NI eliminated them!;)); indeed the only two times they didn't top their Group, they were only a point behind the leaders but miles ahead of third. If ROI get a point at home, that will be well-earned. As for in Italy... When did ROI last win a competitive match away to a top ranking team?



As I've said elsewhere, I think Bulg may be improving and the Czechs in decline. And you took one point from the Czechs.
As for Montenegro, you may well be right about beating them. But you'd have to fancy your chances of beating the other 6th Seeds even more highly.



Agreed about the draw - should finish third, but with a reasonable chance of 2nd. Our away from is too poor to have any chance of 1st, mind, and will likely be responsible if we miss out on 2nd.



Aye, but they'll need to be quick to outpace all the Poles already in NI, never mind those in GB (1/4 million?), never mind 40 million Poles, er, in Poland, only a Ryanair flight away!

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Just wondering is there any Republic of Ireland fans who go onto the Northern Irish equivalent of foot.ie and give such detailed critiques of their chances of their chances of qualifying etc. I find it hard enough to have the time to comment on our situation and that is something I invest both time and effort into, never mind some other team that I do not support and may be considered a rival.

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Originally Posted by NeilMcD

Just wondering is there any Republic of Ireland fans who go onto the Northern Irish equivalent of foot.ie and give such detailed critiques of their chances of their chances of qualifying etc. I find it hard enough to have the time to comment on our situation and that is something I invest both time and effort into, never mind some other team that I do not support and may be considered a rival.

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Yeah, but you don't perform sh*t stirring for a profession, do you.

In the past 3 months he must have spent 10 x more time on here than his beloved OWC

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Originally Posted by Metrostars

Contrary to what most people are saying, I hope we play Italy in our final games, September/October 09.... hopefully they will have qualification sown up by then and would not too worried by losing to us.

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Since when do the Italians run on time?

There´s an interesting poll on
La Gazzetta Dello Sport
http://www.gazzetta.it/appsSondaggi/...tta/d_1529.jsp

From an Italian perspective of course.
Who is our biggest adversary in the group?
Ireland 40%
Bulgaria 37%
Montenegro 12%
Cyprus 8%
Georgia 4%

26,000 polled so far

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Originally Posted by geysir

There´s an interesting poll on
La Gazzetta Dello Sport
http://www.gazzetta.it/appsSondaggi/...tta/d_1529.jsp

From an Italian perspective of course.
Who is our biggest adversary in the group?
Ireland 40%
Bulgaria 37%
Montenegro 12%
Cyprus 8%
Georgia 4%

26,000 polled so far

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Probably a hangover from USA 94.:D

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Originally Posted by geysir

There´s an interesting poll on
La Gazzetta Dello Sport
http://www.gazzetta.it/appsSondaggi/...tta/d_1529.jsp

From an Italian perspective of course.
Who is our biggest adversary in the group?
Ireland 40%
Bulgaria 37%
Montenegro 12%
Cyprus 8%
Georgia 4%

26,000 polled so far

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No doubt theres an email going around and the 40% that said Ireland are actually irish people not italians!:D

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Originally Posted by geysir

There´s an interesting poll on
La Gazzetta Dello Sport
http://www.gazzetta.it/appsSondaggi/...tta/d_1529.jsp

From an Italian perspective of course.
Who is our biggest adversary in the group?
Ireland 40%
Bulgaria 37%
Montenegro 12%
Cyprus 8%
Georgia 4%

26,000 polled so far

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Right. Everyone, round up a couple of thousand mates, & get them to click the link and vote for Georgia.

That should confuse the Honchos, and lead to us being drastically underestimated on match day by the most press-savvy squad in Europe. :D

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Originally Posted by DaveyCakes

They might have got a draw if they'd done a basic marking job for the free kick!

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If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle.

The result will forever read Scotland 1-2 Italy. What does it matter that they got at them? All that proves is that you can try and ruffle Italy but they'll still beat you.

Italy are a class act. If they lose 1 or 2 players, they'll have 1 or 2 more to come in and do an equally good job. We'll do well to get 1 point out of those 2 games.

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

what's the best way there? belgrade then train?

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Well they way i went was into Dubrovnik airport which is in Croatia then a 3 hour spin by coach to Montengro. Surely a quicker route but i couldnt tells ya mate.

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Originally Posted by Ireland4ever

No doubt theres an email going around and the 40% that said Ireland are actually irish people not italians!:D

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Definetely. Ronnie O Brien wasn't voted young player of the year at Juventus by those Eye-Tie backstards.

:D

With players like Given, Dunne, Finnan, Duff, S Reid, McGeady, Keane and Doyle we are good enough on paper to qualify and even give Italy a run for their money at home.

A good team on paper does'nt mean a good team (take a bow stan). Its so important we get a manager who can make us gel and better than the sum of our parts. If this can be done we'll make the playoffs at least.

Look at the north. On paper they are really crap but they nearly qualified for the euros. Better pick the right manager please god!

I think Sanchez did the best work. Before he took over they were on par with Andorra, Malta, etc.

They key to this qualifying campaign is to beat the teams seeded below us i.e. beat Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro home and away. Do that and we'll get a playoff spot. Bulgaria and/or Italy might drop a couple of points against those teams. We should beat Bulgaria at home. Away is a different story. A draw would be a great result. Italy at home, a draw would be a good result. Away - a draw would be tremendous.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

Italy are a cut above Germany. They won the WC there, after all, whereas Germany only got to the semis, despite home advantage and Klinsi's inspirational leadership. Also, in Euro2008 qualifying, they topped a much harder Group than Germany's, who only finished second. (This was primarily due to Germany dropping sloppy points in easy/dead games in a way which previous German sides hardly ever did. Whereas Italy did what was needed)

And whilst the Czechs were a better side than Bulg in Autumn 2006, I think they're now in decline, whereas Bulg may be on the up. Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bulg were better than the (ageing) Czechs by the time WC2010 qualification ends.

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italy were playing right up until the end and got 29 points, while Germany got 27. germany's last 4 were arguably dead games (ireland away, needed 1 point, czechs at home, lost 3-0, cyprus at home, won 4-0 and wales at home, drew 0-0). having BEEN AT THE GAME (i'm going to assume you didn't see it all) it looked like if Germany needed the win, they could have got it. That, and i think we can be sure they would have gotten 3 points off wales and at the very least one of the czechs if they needed them too. Italy's very participation in euro 2008 was in doubt up until the last minute in Scotland, by which time Germany had long since qualified and were nearly asleep, so Germany could easily have ended up with a points total of about 32-34 if they needed it.

Now I'll agree that Ukraine and Scotland were probably better opposition than Slovakia and Ireland, but your point about Germany 'only' making the semi final is a bit of a joke. Lest you forget, Grosso scored in the 117th minute or something like that, with penalties seemingly beckoning (and the Germans have a bit of a rep with penos). And a number of key Italian players retired after the world cup, most notably Francesco Totti. 'Doing what was needed' in terms of their qualifying group is kind of acknowledging that they sucked in some games, and totally ignores the fact that they were in a situation where one goal would have completely f*cked them up, much like the English situation. They were mediocre, most especially when they were OUTCLASSED by France and lost 3-1, and then played out a 0-0 borefest in Italy. They struggled at home to the Scots, too, lest we forget. They may be no 1 seeds, but they aren't that much better than the Germans. In terms of who I'd rather have after this summer's euros in an away game in September, I'd take Italy, cos if they don't win the euros, they'll be pieced off, given the usually sky-high pressure over there and if they do win, history shows they'll be easy enough to play too. They opened the last campaign with a 1-1 home draw to Lithuania, immediately after winning the world cup. Form of Champions that. For all your criticism of German form, in a game that mattered, they never messed up that abjectly.

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

italy were playing right up until the end and got 29 points, while Germany got 27. germany's last 4 were arguably dead games (ireland away, needed 1 point, czechs at home, lost 3-0, cyprus at home, won 4-0 and wales at home, drew 0-0). having BEEN AT THE GAME (i'm going to assume you didn't see it all) it looked like if Germany needed the win, they could have got it. That, and i think we can be sure they would have gotten 3 points off wales and at the very least one of the czechs if they needed them too. Italy's very participation in euro 2008 was in doubt up until the last minute in Scotland, by which time Germany had long since qualified and were nearly asleep, so Germany could easily have ended up with a points total of about 32-34 if they needed it.

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Italy were "playing right up until the end" because they were in a really competitive Group, with four teams all mounting a challenge.
Germany were first to qualify because they were in an uncompetitive Group, with the two Qualifiers effectively settled soon after the half way mark.
That being so, I draw a very different conclusion as the the respective merits of the two teams than you do.
When under pressure, Italy came up with the goods. Don't be deceived by "what ifs" or "nearlys" - the great Italian teams have always done it that way: if a point is needed, don't let the opposition score, if a win is needed, establish a lead and hold onto it.
Whereas great German teams of the past were always characterised by their ruthlessness. That is, they never "eased off" in so-called "dead games" in the way this German side did; it would have been quite unacceptable.

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

Now I'll agree that Ukraine and Scotland were probably better opposition than Slovakia and Ireland, but your point about Germany 'only' making the semi final is a bit of a joke. Lest you forget, Grosso scored in the 117th minute or something like that, with penalties seemingly beckoning (and the Germans have a bit of a rep with penos). And a number of key Italian players retired after the world cup, most notably Francesco Totti. 'Doing what was needed' in terms of their qualifying group is kind of acknowledging that they sucked in some games, and totally ignores the fact that they were in a situation where one goal would have completely f*cked them up, much like the English situation. They were mediocre, most especially when they were OUTCLASSED by France and lost 3-1, and then played out a 0-0 borefest in Italy. They struggled at home to the Scots, too, lest we forget. They may be no 1 seeds, but they aren't that much better than the Germans. In terms of who I'd rather have after this summer's euros in an away game in September, I'd take Italy, cos if they don't win the euros, they'll be pieced off, given the usually sky-high pressure over there and if they do win, history shows they'll be easy enough to play too. They opened the last campaign with a 1-1 home draw to Lithuania, immediately after winning the world cup. Form of Champions that. For all your criticism of German form, in a game that mattered, they never messed up that abjectly.

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Germany have won the WC 3 times and been runners-up four times. Italy have won it 4 times an been R-U twice, so historically their record is very comparable.
Moreover, each has hosted it twice, with one victory and one semi-finals each.
The Italy team which failed in Italia 90 was deemed a poor one by Italian standards, whereas the Germans were relieved even to have made the semis in 2006, such were their low expectations.
In the end, when comparing teams, you can only go by their current/recent form. Italy topped a tough Euro Group, whereas Germany came second in a poor Group, Italy won the 2006 WC in Germany, whereas Germany failed to make the Final on home soil.
You can argue individual games, incidents even, all you like, but I know which of the two I'd rather have drawn for WC2010.


P.S. World Cup Quarter Finalists Ukraine (FIFA Ranked 29th) were better than failed-to-qualify Slovakia (50th). Scotland (14th) with 24 Euro Points in a tough Group were better than ROI (35th) on 17 Euro points in a weak Group. There is no "probably" about it.

P.P.S. A home draw to Lithuania 'the morning after the Lord Mayor's Show' is hardly "messing up abjectly", unless you completely ignore the 28 points they gained subsequently. And how would you characterise Germany's drawing 1-1 in Cyprus, when the Group was still open?

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You can argue individual games, incidents even, all you like, but I know which of the two I'd rather have drawn for WC2010.

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I'm not sure why you're so keen to tediously labour this point as it makes little difference anyway. Whether we had Italy or Germany in our group both of them would almost certainly win it. Our Battle is with Bulgaria and the lower seeds in our group and if we can nick a couple of points from the top seed all well and good.

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Originally Posted by Metrostars

They key to this qualifying campaign is to beat the teams seeded below us i.e. beat Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro home and away.

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Almost. Assuming Italy will coast the group we must get max points from the above and then its down to our head to head record v Bulgaria. Certainly doable.

Ealing Green is a WUM. Ignore him and he'll go away.

No matter about the merits of the other teams, Germany got 27 points and played four dead games (and got 5 points), Italy got 29 and played only one dead game (which they won anyway). The difference between them is minimal. And from an Irish (or northern Irish) perspective, I don't think it makes that big a difference as your chances of getting a result against either are pretty slim, either at home or away.

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Originally Posted by fergalr

Almost. Assuming Italy will coast the group we must get max points from the above and then its down to our head to head record v Bulgaria. Certainly doable.

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Head to head or GD? Sometimes it changes. I think FIFA tend to use GD while uefa use head to head.

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Originally Posted by EalingGreen

P.P.S. A home draw to Lithuania 'the morning after the Lord Mayor's Show' is hardly "messing up abjectly", unless you completely ignore the 28 points they gained subsequently.

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Slight change to your assertion that Italy always beat all but the best teams.

I think that result reinforces the fact that points can be gained from Italy depending on when we play them. I full expect them to do enough as they usually do but that wasn't the issue being debated was it.