But blue passports!Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
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But blue passports!Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
The whole thing is a shambles. They've made ironclad commitments that are mutually incompatible. And the loudest voices over here seem to be swinging towards a no deal that closes the borders completely and sinks the country on a point of principle.Quote:
Originally Posted by ifk101
May survives a vote of no confidence, pledges to step down before next general election.
Can't see Corbyn / Lab playing this shot unless they know its going to win, and even if it does, what is their prize ? To possibly inherit this spiraling horror show, which is entirely of their Tory opponents making & end up blamed for its outcomes as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
If they induce another vote, the external optics give them the moral high ground but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all.
There are, few, if any good moves here, for any of them.
They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment.
Its gripping entertainment, if it was a TV show, it'd be hailed as genius, trouble is, its real and its happening.
I really think, May's government put a lot of eggs in the basket that at some crunch point, the EU would sacrifice little Ireland to secure relations with their giant economy and let Ireland unify if they want out of the ensuing arrangements if needs be. We are closer and closer to end game without that having happened.
The Tories, love or loathe them, have always been ruthlessly capable in their objectives, what those objectives are and how to achieve them. That's gone, that's what's new here, they can't collectively identify or secure their desired outcome and its fun to watch.
Agree with this - it is a possibility however that Labour win an election , delay article 50 and go to a people's vote - not very likely, but more likely than it happening from within a Tory led government.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
I can't for the life of me understand how a comprehensive defeat of the Brexit deal wouldn't trigger a GE. The Government over there is not functioning at all.
I was/am worried that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus (it certainly seems at times that the pro-Brexit lot in the UK thought they would), but all indications are that the EU leaders have basically told May to go jump over the last few days. The persistent refrain of "The UK won't tell us exactly what they actually want" is very indicative of how nonsensical this has all become.
The UK parliament isn't going to approve this deal so its either an election, a change of government without one or just blundering into a "no deal" exit. I'd wager it will be the first option with the campaign turning into a de facto Peoples Vote.
So far we have had full backing from the rest of the EU. The British are helping us here by being a bit of a mess and being aggressive and arrogant so making the EU more inclined than ever to have our backs.
The whole think is an insane act of national self-harm based on nostalgia for a Britain that never was.
Morning snowflakes :rolleyes: (well if only on the highground)
Many of those past Labour voters will have already moved to the Tories, often briefly via UKIP. I live in one of the strongest Leave areas in the West Midlands, Dudley. In our local elections this year the Tories took almost all of the collapsing UKIP vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
The traditional model doesn't really apply. Just because Corbyn/ McDonnell/ Abbott were ardent pro-Shinners 30 years ago doesn't mean they'd make a UI priority in Government in 2019, given all the other likely crises. While for all the baloney about preserving the UK, Tory politicians- and increasingly their voters- are getting well peed off with the DUP's anticsQuote:
They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment
The EU has committed to nothing other than the following:
"It is the Union's firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by December 31, 2020, alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered"
But I see May is already trying to make this look like a much bigger deal than it really is. Meanwhile Arlen Foster insists she just has to "stand up to" all 27 EU member states, like it's the most natural thing in the world.
Foster couldnt sell a deal/ stand up to, her DUP colleagues on Fermanagh & Omagh Council
I live in the East Midlands, the Shire to West Midlands, Mordor :) as it were and I offer my sympathies. As l'Anglais say, bad luck old chap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
Yeah, Tories have hoovered up the UKIP vote over this way too, after something like a 25% showing in the not too distant past at local level. I still feel there is enough of a 'Leave' contingent in Labour, that Corbyn needs to be mindful of though GR.
McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight.
What was yours ? :)
Indeed, but if they are 30% and falling of Labour's vote share (as suggested above) they probably can/ should be faced down. Pandering to them by pretending a better deal can be negotiated with the consistent EU in next to no time is dishonest, and pretty daft.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
The problem I mentioned wasn't the demographics, but simply that sorting out NI isn't likely to be a priority given other problems in the next 5-10 years. I'm sure JMD, JC and co still have the convictions of their youth ;)Quote:
McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up
Forty shades of pink on Sammy Wilson's coupon as he gets ever more worked up?Quote:
Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight...What was yours? :)
So we have a, no confidence, in May from Corbyn tonight.
Looks like the Tories are trying to bury it, as silly games.
Whatever next, will this saga bring us ?
Are, you u/commahorror?
If there's no deal, then there is no phase 2!Quote:
Originally Posted by ifk101
MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202; the largest defeat for a sitting government in British history.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence, which will be debated and voted on tomorrow.
She's apparently likely to win that vote: the only thing hardcore Tories and DUP hate more than her deal is the idea of Corbyn being in charge. Still, if I was a Prime Minister and lost a hugely significant vote by that margin, I'd have slunk my way to Buckingham Palace out of sheer embarrassment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...d=tmg_share_tw
The rest is behind a paywall.Quote:
Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands.
The Prime Minister will on Monday update Parliament on her attempts to draw up a so-called "plan B" for Brexit following cross-party talks in Westminster - and discussions with other EU leaders.
One of the proposals under consideration is rewriting the 1998 accord to assure Ireland that the UK is committed to no hard border on the island after the UK leaves the European Union in March.
I mean, even if she could do that, and even if our government went along with it, wouldn't that require some manner of referendum here?
Edit: Numerous government figures are flatly rejecting the idea of British/Irish talks separate to the EU. I was under the assumption we couldn't make agreements of such a kind separate to the EU anyway.
John Humphrys asked Helen McEntee in a BBC interview why Ireland shouldn't just hitch itself to the UK and leave the EU as well. Yep. That's what passes as informed comment over there. Makes me ashamed of my Manc origins....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eu-and-join-uk
Counter-questions for Humphrys: given that for several hundred years after the Norman invasion French was the language of the ruling class in England, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the French and stay in the EU? Or before that, given that the Anglo-Saxons, who gave the country its language, had just popped over from Germany to invade, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the Germans and stay in the EU? Bull5hit, of course, but just as informed as Humphrys.
[Edit - should have mentioned the Romans, too, but but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?]
As has become evident over the last few months, there is a very real sentiment in parts of the British media and political establishment that Ireland should know its place. And that place seems to be west Britain.
In fairness to the presenter, he was putting a view across that some of the wingnut Brexiteers have been proposing. It's crazy and ignorant of course, but some of the discourse around this whole fiasco has been amazing in the worst way!
I read today that the NHS has cancelled a scheduled blood donation drive in Dover in late March/early April because of concerns over Brexit-related congestion. Only fair to say they note they have enough stock of blood in the area.
All these amendment discussions in the Commons are so blatantly disingenuous. The EU has said over and over again that they will not renegotiate or accept a watering down of the backstop. It really seems like the Tories and DUP are happy to blunder into a no-deal exit as long as they can say it's all the EU's fault.
An exercise in internal party matters, and drawing her two warring wings together more than anything, and at a moment she needed to look out, she focused completely inward & with some immediate success it must be said, but what will it get her ? Its all based upon the EU being willing to throw Ireland under the bus at some stage, as it stands. Lets see if they do. I would love if English arrogance was met with a closed door on the matter, but will it be ?Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
A hard crash out delivers the mother of all borders anyway, the one thing all agree on, and the Tories know this too.
More chance of a United Ireland hosting Euro 2032 than this I think: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...xit-world-cup/
Had to laugh at this this morning: https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/sta...13626846986240
This is the week the Tories start eating other. Talk of a general election being in the offing. May has lost her voice again. The government's authority is in tatters.
It all reminds me of the last days of the Cowan government. Or the fall of Saigon.
Losing votes of this magnitude should mean an extension and then an immediate general election. May has no mandate to do anything.
I see your point, and it has a lot to back it up, but on the other hand, take back control brexit means brexit strong and stable.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
What an absolute **** show
Didn't gain much purchase in the news over here (England) during the week, with the ceaseless howling from all other political quarters.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?
It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.
A narrow majority as Brexit has proven is a receipt for chaos, best to wait.Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
Sure, we probably shouldn't have a referendum in the immediate aftermath, but with these numbers it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved.Quote:
Originally Posted by D24Saint
As we're seeing now it's hard to compel the Brit PM to do anything- our system entrenches his/ her almost unlimited power behind the nonsense of asking the Queen's permission...Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
The Euro Election in May this year had only 36% in NI voting first preference for explicitly United Ireland parties. There's clearly a difficulty moving from a system where people vote for 3 distinct blocs (all now on 20%+) to a referendum with only 2 choices
It would be an argument, but not a compelling one in itself. A narrow defeat- followed by a further fall in Unionist numbers in the next election- would be strong justification for another referendum fairly soonQuote:
Originally Posted by John83
A fairly predictable devlopment over the next 5-10 years is that Brexit won't be finally sortedQuote:
and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though
You (plural) have been thinking about it since 1925 ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Hayden jr
There is a wide range of thinking, from the most positive (economists like David McWilliams) to the mainly negative (jounalists like Fintan O'Toole). Then there's the debate about whether the South should simply absorb NI, or alternatively have an entirely new structure. But put simply, if it's anything like the first option you are increasing the population of the State by 40%, many of the newcomers likely to be less than keen. All at a time of economic disruption etc etc
The Northern Ireland Act 1998 simply states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
It is not clear exactly what would satisfy this requirement. Typical suggestions include i) a consistent majority in opinion polls; ii) a Catholic majority in a census, iii) a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, or iv) a vote by a majority in the Assembly. These could all be considered evidence of majority support for a united Ireland.
Personally speaking, I wouldn't be surprised if a border poll is called in 2023 when the results of the next census are published.
That's highly unlikely. A narrow defeat would just increase the push to hold another in seven years; the minimum interval stipulated in the Agreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
Indeed. Even South Korea has a Ministry of Unification!Quote:
Originally Posted by samhaydenjr