2017 NI Assembly Election

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Originally Posted by Gather round

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?

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That's the most bizarre analysis of the scenario I've read to date.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Delighted McCann is gone. Always liked him as a commentator but as a PBP member he collapsed in my estimation.

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He's down but not quite out just yet. There's still a chance he might pick up more transfers, but he does have a bit of ground to make up. Middleton will take transfers from the UUP and the Tory candidate (who won 77 votes), but McCann will be more transfer-friendly for Green, Alliance, SDLP and SF voters, I would imagine.

McCann's Brexit stance will definitely have harmed him in Foyle, a border constituency obviously, where sentiment was and still is very much pro-Remain.

Anything in particular that led to the drop in your estimation of him?

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

He's down but not quite out just yet. There's still a chance he might pick up more transfers, but he does have a bit of ground to make up. Middleton will take transfers from the UUP and the Tory candidate (who won 77 votes), but McCann will be more transfer-friendly for Green, Alliance, SDLP and SF voters, I would imagine.

McCann's Brexit stance will definitely have harmed him in Foyle, a border constituency obviously, where sentiment was and still is very much pro-Remain. Anything on particular that led to the drop in your estimation of him?

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The Brexit stance and his membership of the PBP. I really have no time for any of them.


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Originally Posted by PBP

People Before Profit Alliance. Press Statement On Brexit Vote.

People Before Profit Alliance. Press Statement on Brexit vote.

– Vote to leave is “chickens coming home to roost” for Corporate and increasingly undemocratic Europe

– People Before Profit TD’s and MLA’s say a vote should be seen as an opportunity for an alternative Europe that puts People Before Profit.

In a statement today, People Before Profit’s TD’s and MLA’s, welcomed the exit vote in Britain and called for this democratic vote to be respected by the EU institutions

The vote in Britain is a rejection of the austerity measures driven by the EU and Tories over recent years and David Cameron. It us the EU and the Tories themselves who have whipped up racism and anti-immigrant sentiment and given succour to the racists such as Nigel Farage and the far right across Europe.

Over the last two years the EU has been shown for what it is – a prison house for workers that fosters racism, xenophobia and austerity.

Instead of welcoming refugees the EU confronts them with barbed wire fences, military patrol boats and a rotten deal with Turkey. This has forced hundreds of thousands of people to risk their lives on the open sea. Indeed, tens of thousands of people have already drowned, leaving blood on the hands of the European Union.

The EU has overseen the mass impoverishment of European workers. In 2015 more than half of Greek pensioners were already living below the poverty line (€650 per month). Despite this, the EU bullied and threatened the democratically elected Greek government to accept further austerity. In Ireland the EU forced €64 billion onto taxpayer’s shoulders and in Britain they supported the Tories in their campaign to cut wages whilst blaming immigrants.

Brid Smith TD said: “This Exit vote should be seen as an opportunity for an alternative Europe. I welcome this blow to the EU project, the EU has never been about a workers Europe and its recent treatment of Greece and Ireland shows its primary concern is not the welfare of citizens or refugees but the welfare of the banks and the bond holders.

The EU’s disgraceful treatment of migrants shows that any claim of Europe being progressive died with the signing of the EU – Turkey deal.

It’s a pity that Jeremy Corbyn, with his anti-austerity, pro worker and internationalist record did not take a lead in supporting an Exit. Had he campaigned against it the whole debate could have been pulled away from the racist and far right rhetoric. And we would not be hearing the nonsense that this is just a racist and a right wing vote. “

MLA Gerry Carroll said: “There are ‘reasons to be cheerful’ about the outcome of the EU referendum, and that ‘the next chapter is yet to be written.’ David Cameron—one of Europe’s biggest austerity mongers—is gone”, said Mr Carroll.

“The British establishment, from top to bottom is in turmoil, and Britain may well be facing its biggest constitutional crisis for a century or more. The Tory party, who seemed to be in a position of unquestionable strength just months ago, is split. And the neo-liberal project of the EU—and the European elites that have presided over it, backed by some of the world’s most powerful forces, from the US government, to the IMF—is in a deep crisis. Whatever way you voted yesterday, there are plenty of reasons to be cheerful this Friday morning.”

Richard Boyd Barrett TD said: “This vote is the chickens coming home to roost for a Europe of austerity, increasingly undemocratic and dominated by corporate interests. David Cameron and the EU are the authors of their own crisis. It is their policies of unjust austerity and their disgraceful treatment of desperate refugees that has deepened disaffection and alienation among masses of people in both Britain and across Europe and created the space for dangerous forces from the far right to emerge.

If we want to defeat vile xenophobes like Nigel Farage it is not be defending the indefensible policies of the EU, rather it will be by demanding economic justice, real democracy and genuine internationalism across Europe and beyond.

In fact, there is no reason why nasty right wingers like Farage or Boris Johnson should be the beneficiaries of this vote. The defeat of Cameron and the EU presents a huge opportunity for the left to build a real political alternative of a progressive and internationalist kind.”

Eamon McCann MLA said: “From an Irish point of view, One of the most interesting passages in David Cameron’s statement this morning came when he said that, “We must now prepare for a negotiation with the EU. This will need to involve the full participation of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments…”

We are entitled to take the reference to “full participation” literally. No matter who replaces Cameron as Prime Minister, this pledge has been made and will stick.

How the North is represented in the formulation of a negotiating position, by whom and on the basis of what mandate from the Assembly and from the people, is a question requiring a serious debate – which should start now.

We have to get away from the idea that we will be mere spectators as Tories in London and bureaucrats in Brussels sort out the future. We must make ourselves participants. People Before Profit will be making the case for an exit not just from the EU but also from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, intended to consolidate the grip of multinational companies on every European economy.

The trade union movement should make the case for leaving TTIP behind, for ditching European competition laws which prevent the use of State funds to bail out businesses where jobs are threatened, for abandoning the neo-liberal austerity policies imposed across the EU – even at the expense of crushing democracy, as we saw in Greece last year.

These aspects of the EU were scarcely mentioned in the main campaigns across the water – because the Boris Johnson and the David Cameron are equally committed to policies which favour the rich at the expense of the poor.

There is no need for the pessimism and near panic which seems to have descended on many this morning. There is no inevitable outcome here. It’s all to be fought for. We repeat the slogan we put forward during the referendum – In or Out, the fight goes on.

Gino Kenny TD said: “Rather than panic and hysteria about the vote to exit, the establishment and those who support the EU should take a long hard look at themselves and ask why the EU project has so deeply alienated millions of particularly less well-off people across Europe.

It is vitally important that this vote is respected by the EU institutions as the democratic vote of the people and I hope we will not see a re-run of the bullying and punishing tactics that the Greek people experienced when they dared to vote “the wrong way” or that we experienced here in Ireland when we voted against the Nice Treaty!

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http://www.peoplebeforeprofit.ie/201...n-brexit-vote/

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That being said I would prefer him over the line than a DUPer. Naturally.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

To constantly equate keenness for reunification to cost and economics completely devalues the latent romanticism of the concept

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Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)

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No party in the South will campaign for a No vote

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No Party in the South accepts the 1920s border.

Except for the ones that do.

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Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit?

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Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

That being said I would prefer him over the line than a DUPer. Naturally

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You've no time for them except when you do ;)

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)



No Party in the South accepts the 1920s border.

Except for the ones that do.



Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

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What effort do you think should have been made?

You are living in Puckoon if you think a majority in the South don't want reunification.

Accepting the practicalities of the border was necessary (said like a true Blueshirt) that doesn't mean we had to be happy about it. Anyway, I'm sure you'll campaign real hard against it should the time come.


And I still don't understand why the EU would disregard us, a sovereign member, wrt Brexit given the effect it will have on us, a sovereign member.

Given the overtures since June last year it seems to me that they are willing to make it work.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

You've no time for them except when you do ;)

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Cmon... a left-wing [sic] nut is better than a right-wing nut who is against equality for all citizens.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

France, Spain and Italy do not come into the Brexit argument where Ireland are concerned. Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit? It's in their interests to make this work, so they will.

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I see it like this too, it's very much in the EU self interests to look after us here if nothing more, plus we shut up and paid our troika bills post collapse like good boys and girls and caused less fuss than certain others on that front so we have that to cash in also. I honestly feel there will be a period of re setting the sails and then some lovely calmer waters to enjoy.

Also never under estimate the strength of will in the national psyche not to be seen to have to follow the Brits in this. FF have been particularly on note publicly on this and it does resonate.

Basically GR there is a swagger coming into the stroll of the south of the border collective, which you would be very welcome to join in on presently however we may well make you pay well to join later, post 2020 for example :) :)

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)



Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

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More irrelevant waffle. No party on the island has ever wanted to 'move' the border, just either to maintain or destroy it. Yet another reddish(orange?) herring.

And the EU wants to, rightly or wrongly, expand. Certainly though they shouldn't admit Turkey or any other countries bordering Russia. Someone like Bosnia would be good eventually.

So they'll want Ireland to prosper if only to prove the Brits wrong.

Anyway, eventually the Brits will bin off the North as an expensive black hole and the only people around to bail them will be...

Scotland? :)

Maybe some of them will finally go home!!

Recount in the Ancestral Seat aka Fermanagh South Tyrone.

EDIT: Everyone is going on about it being a great result for SF... I wonder, do they know something else we don't? Is a "victory" on?

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

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Crisis is what's happening over on the mainland. Have you ever seen a more clueless bunch in charge?

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Come on Bonnie! Please,lol

An amazing election really. I really didn't see that coming. As the partition of Ireland nears its one hundredth year, gerrymandered majority-unionism is dead.

The DUP have lost the ability to pass a petition of concern without the assistance of other unionists and unionism and nationalism are near neck-and-neck with 40 MLAs in the new assembly designating as 'Unionist', 39 designating as 'Nationalist' and 11 designating as 'Other' (assuming Claire Bailey of the Greens takes the final remaining uncalled seat in South Belfast). Never has the state of play been so finely balanced. Massive and historic, both politically and psychologically. We're in a new era. James Craig will be turning in his grave.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

The Brexit stance and his membership of the PBP. I really have no time for any of them.

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Latching on to Tory Brexit and believing that some form of Lexit would magically pop out of a hat in a triumphant puff of smoke was indeed both misguided and delusional. I still think the assembly will lose a very astute, progressive intellect (and important subversive) in McCann. Diversity is good and I always have a lot of time for his critiques, observations and commentary.

The Green Party's Claire Bailey takes the 90th and final seat of the election in South Belfast.

Here are the final standings:

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...pslocedw6w.png

I haven't gotten a scrap of work done today with that, what a days events. Wow :)

A fine analysis from the nationalist perspective by commentator Chris Donnelly: http://sluggerotoole.com/2017/03/04/...sm-bites-back/

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Originally Posted by Chris Donnelly

All has changed. Utterly.

Ten months ago, Sinn Fein and the SDLP mustered a meagre 36% of the vote between them in the May 2016 Assembly election, returning just 40 seats, the lowest number for the nationalist parties since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.

In contrast, the newly-elected DUP leader, Arlene Foster, emerged the triumphant winner of a contest which underlined both the DUP’s electoral dominance and broader sense that they were politically in the driving seat, dictating the terms for the new Fresh Start Executive.

That performance fitted neatly into a trend of election results which indicated that nationalists were voting in decreasing numbers, contributing towards a series of electoral setbacks for nationalism that was providing much encouragement to a political unionism increasingly of the view that Irish nationalist sentiment was on the wane in a post-conflict Northern Ireland.

The past 24 hours has provided a rude awakening for many who held to that fundamentally flawed view.

Nationalism has awakened from its slumber, and in the process it has delivered the first electoral results that are reflective of the sharply changing demographic realities of the northern state.

Unionism is no longer a majority within the Assembly.

In the city of Belfast, Unionism holds a mere 6 seats, one less than Sinn Fein’s city-wide total.

Nationalism holds a greater number of seats than unionism in exactly half of the eighteen constituencies.

In the three west of Bann constituencies of Fermanagh South Tyrone, West Tyrone and Mid-Ulster, nationalism took 11 of the 15 seats available.

For the first time ever, North Belfast has returned a majority of nationalist elected representatives, with the bete noir of many nationalists, Nelson McCausland, losing out for the DUP.

Of the eighteen seats lost in an election which saw the Assembly reduced from 108 to 90 seats, 16 were lost by the unionist parties.

Right across the north, nationalists turned out in unprecedented numbers.

Sinn Fein’s 27.9% of the overall vote represented the largest percentage share of the vote for any nationalist party in the history of the state.

The party’s 224,245 votes was the first time a nationalist party had broken through the 200,000 vote mark.

The 39 nationalist seats represents a 43% share of the overall Assembly seats, nationalism’s highest ever return. That figure increases to 44.4% if the All-Ireland socialist People Before Profit seat secured by Gerry Carroll is included, a significant advance on the 37% share of the overall seats secured in 2016 when 40 seats from the 108 seat chamber were secured by the nationalist parties.

The combined representation for Unionist parties will be just 40 seats, with Alliance and the Green Party making up the remainder of seats in the chamber.

One unionist political leader announced his resignation before all votes had even been counted. The other unionist leader spent the day in hiding from the BBC whilst her lieutenants borrowed a script from Team Trump and Spicer, blaming the media for their self-inflicted wounds in a series of interviews that did little to inspire confidence in their ability to rationally analyse and reflect upon the reasons for their changing fortunes.

Whilst Sinn Fein are the unquestionable primary victors of this election, the SDLP will also have many reasons to cheer.

The party will be smarting at losing its status as the largest nationalist party in South Down and Foyle, but the 12 seats returned matches the number secured in 2016, when there were 108 seats to be won, meaning they have increased their share of seats. This is important because it has meant that the SDLP returns to the Assembly as the third largest party.

The election results have vindicated the strategic decisions by both nationalist parties to progress their respective transition processes in recent times.

Sinn Fein returns with 27 MLAs, and amongst their number will be no fewer than 11 women, the largest number of female representatives returned by any of the major parties since the Assembly was established in 1998. The newly elected Sinn Fein representative tier (including northern leader, Michelle O’Neill) reflect the generational change finally beginning to take place within the party in the north.

The party is well positioned to challenge for Westminster seats in South Down, Foyle and Fermanagh South Tyrone amidst a renewed sense of rivalry and electoral engagement by nationalists which is likely to maintain the momentum driving the surging nationalist turnout figures into the future.

The SDLP’s star performers throughout the campaign, Nichola Mallon and Claire Hanna, both delivered where their fellow Belfast party representative Alex Attwood could not, and the party must be left rueing its decision to not make the necessary changes in personnel in West Belfast before the electorate forced them to do so.

The SDLP will also be delighted that two of its veteran candidates, Dolores Kelly and John Dallat, both delivered what looked to be improbable victories for long periods throughout the day.

But the icing on the cake for Nationalism was the stunning result secured by Pat Catney in a Lagan Valley constituency considered to be hostile terrain for nationalist parties since boundary changes removed the strongly nationalist districts of Dunmurry, Lagmore and Glenavy after 2007.

Catney’s victory was easily the most surprising of this election and owed a lot to a masterful ground level and publicity strategy which relied upon convincing the latent nationalist population of the rapidly changing Lisburn city region that a credible challenge for a seat was possible. It was a strategy that Oliver McMullan utilised so effectively to win and retain an unlikely Sinn Fein seat in East Antrim in 2011 and 2016. It also showed what is possible, and I would expect nationalism to claim a seat in Strangford and, possibly, East Antrim once again in the short term future, further increasing nationalist representation towards the 45-seat figure.

This is a watershed election, the first in which the demographic reality of a changing Northern Ireland has been borne out in electoral terms.

For nationalists, the distance between the aspiration and fulfilment of a united Ireland has never appeared as close as it does today.

Unionism is no longer a majority in the north of Ireland.

Never has the Union as we know it seemed as precarious.

As she reflects on her position and how she guided unionism from the dizzy heights of last May to the unprecedented lows of today, Arlene Foster must accept that she is directly responsible for delivering unionism’s worst election performance in the history of the northern state.

For Sinn Fein, the result utterly vindicates the decision to let the people speak over an RHI scandal and broader DUP approach to a power-sharing project which can only truly work if it is premised upon a genuine commitment to mutual respect and equality.

By voting in such numbers, nationalists have firmly concluded that such a commitment is not forthcoming from an Arlene Foster-led DUP. That will resonate within Sinn Fein, and their leadership will know that honouring the mandate received will require delivery before a return to devolution.

Nationalists took to the polls because they believed a statement had to be made in support of Martin McGuinness’ approach to power-sharing and in reaction to the competing approach of Arlene Foster.

Whilst it would be wrong to interpret the election results as indicating the possibility that nationalism could win a border poll in the short-term, nevertheless the results provide a powerful affirmation for nationalists that support for that project remains rock solid amongst a nationalist community whose decision to finally wield their potential electoral power has delivered in the most spectacular manner.

Maith thú, Arlene.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Aye. It would be insane. However I was only doing Walsall's maths. This is not my prediction.

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Insane you say... 😂

In fairness to the resigning UUP leader, as over-polished as he may be, and in light of the SDLP's Pat Catney taking the final seat in Lagan Valley from the DUP by virtue of transfers from UUP voters, Mike Nesbitt has clearly demonstrated that there is logic and strategic wisdom in tactical cross-community vote transference. That is sure to come more into play in the future. Maybe not such a bad legacy, after all?...

Of course, the ever-graceless dinosaur Edwin Poots was placing the blame for majority-unionism's death solely at the feet of transfer-happy Nesbitt. (Why are the DUP just so allergic to self-reflection? As people have been saying, this should be a lesson for them in the folly of their arrogance.) After being elected late last night, Poots was gloating about his purported uniqueness (being, in his words, a "rare/dying breed" as one of the few but proud old-guard band of unionists still on the scene since the GFA nearly twenty years ago) but the fool is so dim that I don't think he actually realised the true import of his words. The man is a political dinosaur and his ideology will soon be rendered extinct; hardly much to be gloating about, if only he had the wit to put two and two together...

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the stark picture that will be painted when these 90 people gather at Stormont.

The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female. That female bias will even make them look more colourful on TV through their clothes.

Needless to say I'm delighted.