UK Election

Fair points both.

I think for their long term vision of PR, it is important that the Lib Dems can show coalition can work. But short term, they could get walloped PD style. They've already left one of their fundamentals at the door, as AV is a long way from PR, so it depends whether they've left all their principles at the door as the Greens have done here.

As for Labour, Milliband was out talking about Labour being center (before saying center left) - doesn't exactly inspire me that it isn't going to be anything but New New Labour.

Is the referendum going to be on AV or AV+?

The details aren't public yet AFAIK. But lets be realistic, the LibDems will gain hugely in any move away from FPTP. If a move to PR has to be taken in small steps then I don't see this necessarily as a climbdown. Going back into opposition in a FPTP system with both large parties actively opposed to any move towards PR would have been a monumental missed opportunity and who knows when the opportunity would come up again.

The Libdems need to bemindful of public perception in the UK which as has been shown over the last week, equates coalitions (and by extension anything that makes them more likely) as weak government. The fear of a coalition government was palpable in the press and in public opinion, as evidenced by howls of complaint when it was found out that the LibDems were talking to both sides at once. It makes sense to fight the battles you can win, and if AV or AV+ is whats viewed people will stomach, then the LibDems would be mad not to go for it.

By all means don't sell your principles down the river, but there's a whole heap of difference between doing that and settling for less than 100%, which is simply realpolitik in any society IMO.

Labour could afford to move back to the left to pick up disillusioned floating voters, but like Macy says, they'll probably go for a Blair clone like Miliband, so it'll just be more of the same. The Conservatives seem to be using the coalition to pretend they've changed, shoving most of the Lib Dems into minor jobs they weren't particularly interested in anyway, like Scotland and the environment, but if the government is working well, they might well decide not to give Cameron a majority next time either. The lib Dems probably needed the referendum to be on AV+, as the AV that they're getting would leave them with 80 MPs, and even that's if people don't switch to Labour, so Cable needs to impress in business. The House of Lords will be elected by STV and Westminster will have a fixed five-year term, but that's overrridden if the government loses a vote of confidence, so should be interesting times ahead.

The agreement is for a referendum on AV as far as I understand it, not AV+. The Tories will oppose it, presumably from a weak position if the coalition is working.

A vote of confidence won't trigger an election - they're proposing to introduce a vote on dissolution, which would require 55% support. I'm a bit undecided on fixed terms to be honest. Obviously in our situation, not having one isn't helping us get a deeply unpopular party out, and I would fear that it'll just lead to short term thinking from Governments. Pretty much like the McCreevy years here - give away before an election, take it back afterwards, give away before an election etc etc. From our perspective the biggest thing would be to force the holding of bye elections.

Any progress away from FPTP is a good thing. I'd guess many in Labour will support it alongside the LibDems, but they could have a tough job selling it to their constituents. Brits are notoriously averse to change, electorally speaking.

The race to be Labour leader is heating up - the Miliband brothers have been joined by Diane Abbott, Andy Burnham (who was last heard of being booed during the Hillsborough anniversary), John McDonnell and Ed Balls (I'd imagine the Sun have multiple headlines done up already). McDonnell got into trouble for praising the Provos and Bobby Sands a few years back, so he seems to be the wildcard in the bunch.

McDonnell is certainly the most left of those. he actually increased his majority this year too (One of about 3 labour MPs I believe)