Printable View
Mathematically, we can. Check out post #261 in this thread for further details: http://foot.ie/threads/216367-World-...=1#post1938227Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman
We'd be relying on favourable results from group H only now for that. Unfortunately, Denmark beat Montenegro tonight, so group E is no longer of potential use to us on that front.
Thanks for the link, looks like the basis of a PhD that!! :oQuote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Worth noting Scotland have four clean sheets in their last five qualifiers. That's four wins and a draw with England, who equalised with the last kick. They're in good form after a crap start to the group and I'd say will fancy their chances of a win in Slovenia.
But nice to have the avenue open all the same.
People laughed when i said strachan was doing well and back after the euros that i thought Wales were a team id like us to be.
Scotland have looked like us but much more solid
Scotland are showing form, but Slovenia are also unbeaten at home in this campaign. England only managed a 0-0 draw there and they also beat Slovakia 1-0. I think we can be cautiously optimistic of Scotland failing to take three points.Quote:
Originally Posted by zero
It would be nice going to bed on Sunday night knowing that a win for us in Cardiff the following evening would definitely be enough to get us into the play-offs. The B&H-Belgium and Cyprus-Greece games are both on Saturday too. They're the crucial games in that group for us, so with Scotland playing on Sunday, we should hopefully know before Monday whether or not a win in Cardiff will get us through rather than having to wait 24 hours until Tuesday to have our fate confirmed (and possibly for a win to turn out to have not been enough). Even though we obviously can't be certain of beating Wales in Cardiff, there's a certain level of comfort or peace of mind in at least knowing exactly where we stand in advance. We can go out and truly give it our all then without that niggling fear in the back of our heads that it'll all be for nothing.
Another thing; if Wales drop points tomorrow, it could well deal their play-off hopes a fatal blow. If so, they might go into Monday's game with morale and motivation seriously depleted.
Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)
According to this:Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
http://www.football-rankings.info/20...6-october.html
Chances of making the World Cup:
N Ireland: 28.41%
Wales: 27.25%
Scotland: 8.84%
Rep of Ireland: 6.81%
Chances of making the playoffs:
N Ireland: 98.96%
Wales: 41.81%
Scotland: 25.45%
Rep of Ireland: 16.37%
Chances of being the worst 2nd place team:
Wales: 26.63%
Rep of Ireland: 10.46%
N Ireland: 1.04%
Scotland: 0.43%
Chances of being seeded in the Playoffs:
Wales: 41.79%
N Ireland: 19.87%
Scotland: 1.27%
Rep of Ireland: 0%
Who knew maths could be so glib
The results we're looking for in tonight's games, according to Owen Cowzer: https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football...up-qualifiers/
An Austria win over Serbia would obviously be better for us tonight as we can still mathematically top the group if we win our final two games and Serbia either:Quote:
Originally Posted by Owen Cowzer
i) lose both of theirs (their final game is at home to Georgia), or;
ii) pick up just a point over their final two games with us managing to improve our goal difference by +8 over our two victories to enable us to pull ahead of Serbia on goal difference.
As Cowzer says, we can forget about group G really. Italy will move out of our reach with a point against Macedonia tonight. Spain are already out of our reach if they were to drop back into second place in that group, whilst Albania, the only other team who can mathematically finish second in that group, would have to beat Spain tonight and win their next game, with Italy also losing their final two games to make it into the potential play-off spot. If they were to pass Italy then, they'd have 13 play-off points and their goal difference would almost certainly be superior to ours.
Group I is so hard to predict really as it's so tight and four teams there can still realistically qualify for the play-offs. Cowzer suggests the following would be ideal for us, however:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Owen Cowzer
Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).
For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Thanks Danny: Italy and (Portugal/ Switzerland) would be bad draws, but NI and Iceland we could qualify ( but lets win tonight first)Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
At first glace that list of seeds looks disturbing but i assume it's the ranking after the qualifiers that count? Seeing as NI have already lost to Germany and probably a draw with Norway, so they should drop off a bit from that confounding elevation.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
It would niggle me no end (should events transpire) that NI would grab Iceland's seeded place.
Welsh team to face Georgia: https://twitter.com/FAWales/status/916328771606712320
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLdkl3qXkAA8oOL.jpg
Ramsey, King, Ledley, Davies, Chester and Williams all carrying yellows according to Sky Sports.
Should we beat Moldovo, whatever the outcome in this game in Tiblisi doesn't change what needs to be done in the last game. but it would be nice if Georgia could p'iss on their parade.
That's usually the way, aye.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Going OK for us in Georgia so far, although a Georgia goal would be ideal as that would pretty much put Wales out of the play-offs reckoning for definite. Would much rather facing a Wales with nothing to play for on Monday rather than a Wales with a play-off place to play for.
Goal for Wales, changes nothing, still need two wins
It changes things a fair bit. It gives Wales a lot more to play for in the final game and also means we have to beat Moldova. If Wales were to fail to beat Georgia in this game, we could afford to lose against Moldova and it would make absolutely no difference to our runners-up ranking if we were to then finish second by beating Wales.Quote:
Originally Posted by koneinc
Ireland team: Randolph; Christie, Duffy, Clark, Ward; Meyler (c), Hendrick, Hoolahan, O'Dowda; Long, Murphy.
Let's be honest, we need to beat Moldova anyway, if more for confidence than points.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
True, you definitely want to and should be beating Moldova, although a Wales slip-up would have eased any anxiety and perhaps given us greater leeway to conserve the likes of Hoolahan for Cardiff.Quote:
Originally Posted by koneinc
With the Taffs winning it puts extra pressure as we are now four points behind. Don't expect a goal rush tonight. If we do go out I hope the Taff's get Portugal and get hammered
A straightforward enough win for Wales in Tbilisi. They made Georgia look bang average, especially in the second half. And without Bale.
We made Georgia look like world-beaters. :rolleyes:
Wes starting. I hope that doesn’t mean he won’t start V Wales
Serbia take the lead in Austria. Ideally, we'd want Serbia to lose as there's still a mathematical chance we can finish top.
Wales were cráp in this game. Sublime skill for their goal but otherwise cráp.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Austria and Serbia are 1-1 at half-time.
Results in group I going to plan so far.
Another from Austria would be great
Croatia and Ukraine have the taken the lead in their games in group I. That's bad news for us, as the group I runner-up will almost certainly be beyond our reach if things stay as they are.
Austria take the lead against Serbia. We'd finish top now if we beat Wales and Serbia lose to Georgia. If Georgia and Serbia were to draw and we beat Wales, we'd need to improve our goal difference by +5 to finish ahead of Serbia as we'd be even on points with them then.
Is it goal difference Danny yeah?,not head to head?
Serbia equalise.
Aye, goal difference is the next differential after points. Then it's goals scored. Tie-breaking criteria here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_F...on#TiebreakersQuote:
Originally Posted by Fizzer
Austria back in front. 3-2.
Winner austria!!!
Finland have equalised against Croatia. Brilliant.
That means a draw between Ukraine and Croatia will ensure we finish ahead of the group I runner-up if we beat Wales.
Why they say just there on rte that we will only finish second if we beat wales. What if Serbia lose and we beat Wales. We finish top of the group
5-0 win will put us top if Serbia draw....Quote:
Originally Posted by fanaticfan
..stranger things have happened.
What if Serbia lose...at home...to Georgia. I guess it could happen but nobody's counting on it as a realistic option. It's so frustrating to know that even if we had drawn against Serbia at home, we'd be playing for an automatic spot on SundayQuote:
Originally Posted by fanaticfan
A draw between Ukraine and Croatia is the least likely result.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
I'd say if Ireland beat Wales they will go through to the play offs, probably Group H is the most susceptible to the 2nd placed team, finishing in last place ignominy.
Ok, so I think this is what needs to happen in five other groups for us to get ahead of their second-placed team, if we manage to win in Wales: (Group A is still in play but with two rounds of games left and two potential last-placed teams, it's still a complicated picture)
Group C – Northern Ireland lose against Norway, 4-goal swing against them
Group E- i)Denmark lose, Montenegro fail to win, 6-goal swing against Denmark
Group E-ii) Denmark lose, Montenegro win, 2-goal swing against Montenegro
Group F – Scotland fail to win against Slovenia
Group I – Croatia and Ukraine draw
Group H – Bosnia fail to win both games and a)Greece fails to beat Cyprus, b) they do beat Cyprus with a 3-goal swing (possibly 2-goal) or c) they somehow fail to beat Gibraltar and Bosnia pick up enough points to stay ahead of them