Crowd from that game was 3,500 Pineapple - as communicated on previous page. You said you'd be using the 3,500 figures as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
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Crowd from that game was 3,500 Pineapple - as communicated on previous page. You said you'd be using the 3,500 figures as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
The joy of stats !
Two quick questions before some analysis. Are we missing a column for 2004 above ? Also - is the Overall change figure of 12.10% the change from 2004 to 2006, or 2005 to 2006.
Crowds are down but they're up !
The joy of stats is that you can use them to say anything. For example, the above could be interpreted to say that attendances are actually broadly up in the league - as the majority of clubs (55%) have actually had an increase in average attendances over time. When you add in the fact that one of the teams that has had a decline is now no longer in existence (Dublin City) then 57+% of existing teams saw their crowds increase across the period reflected above.
No real surprises in there !
If you look at the stats - teams that had a better year this year than last have pretty much all all seen attedances rise. Those who've had a worse year (and/or been in a lower league) have seen them fall. The only exception to this is Shels - who, as we all know have never had a particularly large or loyal fan base anyway.
A Dublin-lead decline ?
You could argue that the main story from the above stats is the decline in attendances of the Dublin clubs over time. Shels, Bohs, Pats Shamrock Rovers and Dublin City all had significant drops in attendance, meaning only one club in the capital (UCD) saw an increase. So outside of Dublin, the vast majority (69%) of clubs saw attendances increase. This should be no great surprise really, for a number of reasons. Firstly - Dublin clubs are much more reliant upon each other for crowds than teams outside the City, due to the greater than average number of away fans they provide to each other. So if a couple of Dublin teams are struggling league-wise (e.g. Bohs and Pats) this will obviously impact their own crowds, and in-turn impact the other Dublin teams greater than it will non-Dublin teams. For the last 2 seasons in a row, only one Dublin club has finished in a Top 5 league position. For perspective - the last time only a single Dublin club finished in the Top 5 was in 1979/80, and you have to go back 30 years to 1975-77 for the last time only one Dublin clubn finished in the Top 5 for 2 seasons in a row. That's back to the era of Cork Hibernians, Galway Rovers, Thurles Town and Limerick United. Also - no Dublin team has won the FAI cup for the last 5 years - whereas in the 3 years from 1975-77 at least the Cup was claimed by a Dublin team twice. For a league that has traditionally been substantially dominated by teams from the capital, we appear to be in a uniquely difficult period for our capital's clubs. Even with Bohs' money, does anyone genuinely expect more than 1 Dublin club to finish in the Top 5 next season, for example ?
Secondly - the fact that none of the Dublin teams really have any strong local roots doubtless doesn't help them maintain crowds through the lean times (although to be fair it hasn't helped Cork much in the stats either).
Thirdly - would it be fair to argue that Summer football could impact Dublin teams greater than those outside of the capital, given the greater income and tranisent nature of the capitals' population ? Do more Dubs take more holidays in the Summer than us mere mortals down the country ? A moot but interesting point.
Conclusion
From our stats, attendances across the league appear to have fallen about 10% in the last year, and about 12% across the last 2 seasons. But they've fallen year-on-year where you'd expect them to have fallen, and risen year-on-year where you'd expect them to rise as well. Also - the overall decline appears to have been particualy marked amongst clubs from the capital, where despite hosting the league winners the on-field fortunes of Dublin teams have generally been at their lowest ebb for 30 years.
Margin of Error
Finally - the old margin of error whorry chestnut. The above stats are just damn good guesses, usually conservative ones, and not fact. They are purely indicative, and can't really be relied upon to any great degree for accuracy. It is highly likely that the margin for error in them would completely distort the picture, but it would be fair to say that the overall picture would probably be of a slight decline regardless of the margin.
Pineapple - great job on pulling these stats together for another year. I await the inevitable barrage of statistical cross-examination from all and sundry... :D
This is a relatively recent development too. Not so many years ago one man and a dog was the total sum of attendance and some interprovincial games.Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfcsteve
Shows what can be done!
Mea culpa. I'll change.Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfcsteve
First answer - nope, because you can't have a percentage change from 2004 to 2004. I've disregarded 2003 as the figures were way too high and only 75% complete. Second answer is in the post you quoted. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfcsteve
I don't think this argument stands up to any sort of scrutiny, and I hope you don't intend it to (although I've first hand experience of your maths before :eek:). You can't offset Sligo's increase of 0.6% against Cork's drop of 19%, nor Monaghan's increase of 11% against Bohs' 26%. Obviously, in the former case, the 19% decrease far outweighs the 0.6% increase, even before you consider that the 19% decrease was on a much higher starting point than the 0.6% increase. Similarly, Monaghan's 11% increase was only about 15 people in real terms, whereas Bohs' decrease was about 500. So it's utterly pointless to say that half the teams showed increases and conclude that crowds are up. That's why we have the average movement, which shows a 10% decrease this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfcsteve
But the point is that the majority of clubs themselves have experienced an increase in attendance. Let's be honest here - Sligo, Drogheda, Derry, UCD etc don't really give a feck that Bohs have haemorraged support, that the arse has fallen out of Waterford's world or that the overall average is down. All they know is that their active fan-base has grown, and that's frankly all they care about.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
The majority of clubs therefore appear to have had a positive attendance experience over the last 2 years - regardless of how small - so the majority of clubs could be considered to be better off nw. Hence the dichotomy of league-wide attendance figures being down - driven primarily by big drops at certain clubs- yet the majority of clubs have had a positive attendance experience on an individual club-basis.
Neither suspect maths nor rocket science, my dear Watson....
The ultimate end of that theory is a league where we're all happy the average crowd at a game is 500. And ultimately, if the league is dropping support overall, this will sooner or later hit those clubs who are, for now, showing rises. Those clubs whose crowds are up because they're doing well will show decreases when they start to fade away, and those who are currently doing poorly and have dropping support will start to show increased crowds when they start doing well. The only constant in all of this is the average, as it stands to reason that the average league position of each team within the system we call the league can neither fall nor rise, and in this instance, we see a drop within the whole system of 10%.
So maybe not suspect maths - I never claimed it was - but still largely irrelevant.
I think the increased number of Setanta Cup & European competition games has hit the average attendances of the top clubs. I know our attendances are down (i think lack of shed end has had big impact) but there is no doubt our core support has risen in recent years. It is now rare for us to get lower than 2000 at any game. With so many games to attend fans can't make all them so they have to make choices. I would be much more interested in the total numbers at all games as thats what for people such as advertisers are interested in.
What was the name of the thread from the start of the season about trying to make it to all your own club's games for the season just gone?:confused: :ball:
Untrue, the average league position improved by 0.5 places this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
For the record about 1400 at the play off at RSC Saturday night including at least 400 Dundalk fans. That was the biggest away support I've seen at the RSC this season and it made for a great atmosphere.
Spot on, trevy. I would have said 1400 too, but I don't know if post-season friendlies should count towards the attendance thread ;) .
Now now - Dublin City finished twelfth and their attendance increase - recorded above - reflects that. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Schumi
Have you got the final, final, FINAL - don't no-one go requesting any more changes - attendance details yet Pineapple ? The one with the extra 500 for the DCFC v Sligo game in ?Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Not yet, but you can work it out. Add an extra 3 people to the overall average, and about 30 to Derry's average. Not going to change anything significantly. Crowds still down c 10%.
Ditto that.Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemovie
Approx 400 Dundalk fans
We brought around 400-500 aswell earlier on in the year to see the worst game of football ever witnessed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Partizan
Article in Tuesday's London Times about Sepp Blatter and Summer football.
Had a column on the Eircom league switch to Summer football, and reported that it has lead to neither a fall or an increase in attendances to any significant degree.....
In spite of my error regarding Galway United's attendances this season over Shamrock Rovers, my thesis that crowds are down confirmed by yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Proves my point really!
Did it quote a source?Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfcsteve
Nothing has been proven.Quote:
Originally Posted by CollegeTillIDie
1) These are indicative figures, and can't be taken as fact.
2) The margin for error in them is highly likely to be bigger than the estimated year-on-year difference in attendances.
3) The Times obviously have a source that stated that crowds haven't changed significantly.
4) What was your point anyway ? If it was that Summer football is seeing falling crowds, then there is nothing to link the 2 directly together as cause and effect.
Ergo, you've proven nothing....