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So, take a point off a the world cup finalists, and three points from a Dutch side that went unbeaten in 2022 and have lost two qualifiers in the last four years.Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
Greece away is going to be really tough. They've lost one game at home in the last three years, against Spain in November 2021. Before that, they hadn't lost at home since June 2019Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
It's a big leap of faith but better than peddling your hopelessness.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
The thing with a group of kids is that one day, one game, they have their coming out party when nobody’s expecting it. And it changes everything.
A lot of our guys haven’t had that moment on the international stage and all it takes is one moment or two to change how the team views itself and how opponents view us.
Maybe it’s still too soon for this group. But I believe if we have the right players available and they are used in an optimal way, we can make some noise in this group and/or qualify through a playoff.
In Ferguson and Obafemi we have two players with the potential to score and create at an elite level, something we haven’t had for some time.
I’m looking forward to the campaign and don’t think it’s as hopeless as it would seem.
Even the weather in 5 months time is against Kenny, can he ever catch a break?Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
France have lost to Croatia at home, lost to Denmark home and away, drawn with Ukraine home and away, drawn with Bosnia at home and drawn with Croatia and Austria away in the past 2 years just with qualification and Nations league games. It's possible to get a draw at home to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Holland have lost to Italy at home, lost to Turkey away, drawn with Poland at home and Italy, Bosnia, Norway and Montenegro away in the past 2 years in qualification and Nations league games.
In competitive games between 1998 and 2002, Holland only lost 4 games. One was a World Cup 3rd place play off, one was in a Euro semi final after extra time, one was against Portugal and their only other defeat in those 4 years was against the Republic of Ireland.
These things are possible. And I was asked what would be considered a good total of points from qualification. I don't think getting less than 2 points out of 12 against 2 of the teams in our group could be considered as good.
Some of our players were playing when we got our famous away qualification wins against Austria and Wales. The majority of the squad were involved when we put a very good Danish team to the pin of their collar. They've been let down by the current set up but the young players added to the experience have the ability to contend in this group. They had the ability in our last qualification campaign as well. We need less of the talk that we should only expect to come 3rd or 4th in this group or any group. If the management and supporters are saying that then it rubs off on the players. We have a strong squad, they are good enough to compete and achieve famous results like we have before.Quote:
Originally Posted by irishfan86
Just did a quick check and all weather sites seem to suggest the June temperature will drop to circa 19 degrees in the evening.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
:D Oh no, it'll be about 5 degrees higher than our UK based players will be used to. I say we cancel our flights and award Greece that game. No point risking heat exhaustion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
Just looked up Greece's home record since 2020. Drew with Kosovo twice, drew with Slovenia and Georgia and lost to Spain out of the 10 competitive home games. They did get a good win against Sweden but other home wins were against Northern Ireland, Cyprus and Kosovo. So maybe we shouldn't fear them too much.
5 wins 4 draws and 1 loss in that period at home. Away from home they drew with Spain and Belgium and beat Norway.
Since 2016, they’ve played in 3 nations league campaigns, 2 World Cup campaigns and a euros campaign and in that time 23 sides have tried to take 6 points from greece and only Italy in 2019 did it. Taking 6 points from Greece would be excellent.
You're a true Kennyite! Treating friendlies like competitive games. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
Let's put some perspective on things. Greece have competed in League C of the Nation's League, they've played some very poor teams. For World Cup qualification, they came 3rd, 5 points behind Sweden and 9 points behind Spain. For Euro 2020 they came 3rd, 4 points behind Finland, 16 points behind Italy with a draw at home to Liechtenstein thrown in. So let's not hype up Greece too much.
Prior to Kenny, Ireland have only been beaten twice in groups home and away by the same team since 2004. No one said it would be easy to beat Greece twice but it would be placed in the good category. They're about the same level as Georgia. We expected to beat them home and away just a few years ago.
That’s pretty much the point though. On paper the Greeks, like ourselves are hard to beat and will be expecting third place like the last two groups. You’re saying anything less than 6 points is a failure and I’m saying that Spain, Sweden and 20 other teams in the last 3 years all failed to pick up 6 points there.
They’re not Georgia, Georgia have basically bounced between 4th and 5th seeds and have never qualified for anything and our record was 8 wins, 0 draws 0 losses against them until MON’s defensive masterclass. Greece have bounced between 2nd and 4th and having won the nations league group are going to be a third seed again. Georgia for example were the lowest of the 10 4th seeds when we had them last.
As for the” prior to Kenny” remark. Off the top of my head, it’s happen to Kenny once, two 1-0 losses to Finland during covid. It definitely happened to O’Neill, the 4-1 loss to Wales away and the 1-0 at home. It happened to Trap with Germany beating us 6-1 at home and probably 3-0 away from home. Happened to Kerr in the 2004 qualifying against the Swiss.
I want 6 points, I think we can get 6 points but it’s hard to predict from here exactly how good the Greeks are. I can see any scenario where we picked up 2, 3 or 4 points where I wouldn’t consider it a failure. If the Greeks look an excellent side and we go toe to toe with them and draw both games, you shrug and say fair enough. If we beat them at home and lose away but put in two quality performances, something similar. Those two are probably par for a Greek side that are largely similar to ourselves. If we take 4 points, you’d probably be happy, depending on the nature of the draw. If they look terrible and the game is there for us to win and we fail to, you don’t - but it’s a tough one to know at this stage considering their recent record suggests that it’s really hard to win home and away against the Greeks.
Also, we've never beaten Greece. Granted, we've only played them three times, but those games ended in one draw away and two home losses.
Remarkably few games when you consider how often that we have played some other teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
I didn't say anything less than 6 points would be a failure. They call that a straw man argument don't they? Arguing a point that was never made. I'm saying that they haven't played that many good teams. They've been in League C of the Nation's League. Northern Ireland and other poor teams. So not really that impressive when you think about it. As you point out, even Kenny has only done it once, that's saying something.Quote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
Georgia are only 8 positions behind Greece on the ELO rankings. They're very close to us under Kenny. They were in the same group for World Cup qualifying. When they played each other, it was a draw in Greece and 2 injury time goals won the game for Greece in Georgia. Georgia beat Sweden at home and Spain needed an injury time goal to beat them. They are very close in standard.
Yes, I said it's only happened to us twice since 2004. McCarthy was in charge for the first Switzerland game.
In 2022 qualifying, we had a really bad time against the 4th and 5th seed but that was under Kenny. Prior to that, everyone was outraged when McCarthy drew with Georgia as 4th seed. There were no prepared excuses like you're lining up for Kenny. Were you saying that Georgia were a good side so 4 points was acceptable? You were happy with that? In 2018 qualifying, we got 4 points against Wales and Austria, 2 teams better than Greece. So as I said, getting 6 points against a team similar in standard to Georgia must be the target and expected. If we do that it can be classified as good. 4 points can be described as average and below that described as poor. Like I've already said.
In fairness they were all friendlies as well and all a decade and 2 decades ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Greece are better then Georgia, but not by a whole lot
I know its not absolutely scientifiic, but check out the clubs their players are at, we shouldn’t fear them or the weather or covid or the bogyman
Greece national football team - Wikipedia
I'd be more weary of Georgia than Greece being honest. As a team Greece might be better but Georgia now have a genuine top class attacking talent Kvaratskhelia who could go on to be a world class player. A talent like that in attack can make the world of difference for teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
Marginally better going on the last group they were in together.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
They have a good few home based players. Their league isn't that strong these days. I think only one team in the Europa League and they didn't do well. But wait!
I think I spot a champions league player in their squad! Ah that's the final straw. We can't handle that, especially in the heat and they'll probably be speaking Greek as well. Let's just focus on Gibraltar, depending on how good they are we could get 3 or 4 points against them, maybe.
Yeah Kvaratskhelia is really really special - that's a fair enough shout. In terms of Greece, Mavropanos and Tsimikas are very good. Beyond that, there's not much there. But they'd probably look at us and just pick out Matt Doherty in the same way. Like who knows how Douvikas compares to our strikers, he's scored 11 goals in 19 games in the dutch league this season. Hard to know how he matches up to Obafemi, Parrott, Ferguson and IdahQuote:
Originally Posted by JR89
Or,Quote:
Originally Posted by seanfhear
As to be expected when you consider how remarkably often we've played some other teams.....??
:confused:
You know it makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yard of Pace
BS has done some good analysis And building up here. I'd disagree about the midfielders, ferizaj is too slow to make it at the top level
https://twitter.com/htomufc/status/1...HuNzlaua0jE3QQ
It depends on the definition of top level but not making it at the top level doesn't necessarily exclude him from becoming a (good) senior international.
if he ends up being a faster version of thiago alcantara, i'd take that
Dan McD has a nice article on Ireland's striking options in todays Indo,
He did a 14 man ranking did he? Any chance you'd let us know the ranking please?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingdom
This is the order he put them in
1. Evan Ferguson(Brighton)
2. Michael Obafemi (Burnley)
3. Troy Parrott (Preston)
4. Chiedozie Ogbene (Rotherham)
5. Adam Idah (Norwich)
6. Callum Robinson (Cardiff)
7. Scott Hogan (Birmingham)
8. Aaron Connolly (Hull City)
9 Will Keane (Wigan)
10. Georgie Kelly (Rotherham)
11. Sean Maguire (Coventry)
12. Tom Cannon (Preston)
13. Shane Long (Reading)
14. Sinclair Armstrong (QPR)
Start for Sinclair Armstrong today.
Would agree with that 1 and 2 as my long term pairing for Ireland. Think both players would complement each other as Obafemi isn't your plays on the shoulders of defenders type striker and can be a creater as well as a finisher.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
I agree with 1 and 2 as well but think it's much more of a toss up between 3, 4 and 5. And Robinson is a little more versatile so can gain preference for games from a 6th rank. Realistically if Connolly goes on a run for the rest of the season then 3-6 will be looking over their shoulders but it is the same for everyone. Someone needs to stick their head above the parapet like Ferguson emphatically has.
I see Noppert is injured - means he keeps his record of all his senior caps being at the World Cup.
Sorry, I didn't see this post request, but it was replicated anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
List has probably changed in the past month:
1. Evan Ferguson(Brighton)
2. Michael Obafemi (Burnley)
3. Troy Parrott (Preston)
4. Chiedozie Ogbene (Rotherham)
5. Adam Idah (Norwich)
6. Callum Robinson (Cardiff)
7. Scott Hogan (Birmingham)
8. Tom Cannon (Preston)
9. Aaron Connolly (Hull City)
10. Will Keane (Wigan)
11. Georgie Kelly (Rotherham)
12. Sean Maguire (Coventry)
13. Shane Long (Reading)
14. Sinclair Armstrong (QPR)
My personal preference for the list would be....
1. Ferguson
2. Obafemi
3. Idah
4. Parrott
5. Connolly
6. Cannon
7. Ogbene
8. Robinson
9. Hogan
10. Keane
11. Armstrong
12. Kelly
13. Maguire
14. Long
If all were fit and available
Idah shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10.
Apologies, I know it's probably already been discussed, but what teams do we need to keep an eye out for in other groups, should we come third in our group, to get a playoff?
doesn't matter if we come 3rd or 5th.
to qualify for a league B playoff, we need 6 of israel, bosnia, serbia, scotland, finland, ukraine, iceland, norway and slovenia to qualify.
if that doesn't happen, we have a chance to be in a league A playoff. if 5 of 6 qualified above, we'd be first in the queue to move to A, if 4 of 6, we'd be second in the queue, etc. (so we need at least 2 of the above to qualify directly to have any chance).
so depending on what place we are in that queue, we need between 13 and 16 of the league A teams to qualify. those teams are: netherlands, croatia, spain, italy, denmark, portugal, belgium, hungary, switzerland, poland, france, austria, czech republic, england, wales
Another way of looking at it is:
we're ranked 25th of teams going for qualification - there are 20 automatic places - and 8 playoff places - so 4 teams ahead of us are guaranteed to be in the playoffs, we need to make sure no more than 3 teams behind us qualify directly (Romania, Montenegro, Sweden, Greece, Turkey, Georgia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Macedonia, Niron etc.)
With any luck there'll be a few others in squad carrying it and pass it on to the French on FridayQuote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979