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We need to beat Armenia.. not just for the point, but to show progression.. finishing the group with anything less will be letting the air back out of the balloon again
four point from the last two games in Scotland and home to Armenia will put us on 8 points, and hope Scotland dont get two against Ukraine
If we win both games and finish on 10
Will we get a playoff?
You'd imagine so.
Remember there's the possibility of being pulled up to the A League playoff as well.
We were third last time and made the Euro playoffs. The North were fourth and made them
There were fewer teams in each division last time though - 12 in A and 12 in B rather than 16 in each like there is now. If we win the last two that would almost certainly get us second though, which is pretty much a guaranteed playoff. I'd say 4 points won't be enough for second though, because if Scotland don't beat Ukraine the first time around they'll probably be playing a Ukraine team that have already won the group in the second game between them.
So we'll more likely end up third unless we win both and would just have to wait and see if that's enough for the playoffs.
Oh true that; forgot it was going back to the first NL alright.
There's 16 teams in League A and 16 in League B - if all 21 qualifiers through the groups (plus Germany as hosts) come from those two Leagues (and there'll probably be 1/2 upsets) then there's 11 spots left over for the League A/B playoffs. That's five League B teams who won't make it (more if any League C teams qualify by right)
So third would give us good odds, but yeah, not as clear-cut as I'd remembered.
And of course we could qualify for the thing outright, although if you look at Ukraine as a moderate second-seed side, we took one point in two games from them, which obviously would seriously hinder us in a qualification group.
He's a ferrari. Burnley will lose him within a month
Anyone else worried about parrotts pace?
Knight was amazing last night. Bringing on conor for him was insane.
I also thought Darragh lenihan was absolutely outstanding.... better then oshea.
Molomby was like a different player. No more headless chicken stuff
The other fly in the play off ointment, could be Russia not playing
There's a decent case to make that results against "top seeds" in the group should be cast aside, as teams in Russias group didn't have to play a "top seed"
Russia were the second seeds in that group, Iceland were top seeds. Maybe they'll remove results against second seeds - that would be our win against Scotland chalked off!
I don't know how they're going to work that one out, it feels like someone will end up feeling hard done by whatever happens.
Also, is there a reason why Belarus are being allowed to compete - surely the same sanctions should apply to them as applies to Russia?
Afaics as regards B2 Iceland's group minus Russia, the overall ranking is being determined a bit differently, though I would have preferred the standard 3 nil victory, sadly that's not the case. It looks like the B2 teams overall ranking is based on a ratio.
e.g. Iceland played 3, points 3, are ranked higher than Ireland played 4 points 4.
You guys can take it to CAS but I am assuaged.
Does that mean they will just multiply each team in that group's points by 1.5 at the end to make up the difference between them playing four games and the rest playing six. That's probably a reasonable way to do it, though the teams in that group do benefit a bit because Russia would likely have been the strongest team. There's no perfect solution though.
Iceland are ranked higher than Ireland because they're second in their group and we're third.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
I think the only real impact in terms of seeding is that the top-ranked second-placed team in League B is going to be a second seed and the others will be third seeds - but Iceland are well off the pace anyway, having not yet won a game, so that's unlikely to be an issue.
It'll also have minimal impact on the Euro 2024 play-offs - the four League B group winners qualify for the play-offs, and if they've already also qualified for the Euros, then the next best team from that same group will take their place. I think it's only if all four teams from one group qualify that you then have to go hunting for a team from another group, and then it might be an issue.
I dont think it's the next best team from the group, its the next best available ranked team that would step up
The top four teams in the groups get ranked 1-4
2nd Place get ranked 5-8
3rd place get 9-12
4th place 13-16
If a team was in a group where the top 2 automatically qualified, they might be ranked 10th overall.. whereas a team that came 2nd could be ranked 8th
The team overall ranked 8th would take preference for a play off spot if available
Ah - you may be right actually; I think I've mis-read the wording on wiki -
I didn't spot the difference between "group winner" and "same league". But yes, it does seem that if, say, Israel quality through the group stage, then it would be the best runner-up (currently Serbia) and not the next team in Israel's league (currently Iceland) who would benefit.Quote:
If a group winner has directly qualified through the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying group stage, then they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team from the same league that has not also directly qualified.
So that does put the three-team group sides at a disadvantage alright, albeit that the group winners will be guaranteed a play-off spot anyway and the runners-up will almost certainly get one too. And if a third place team doesn't get a spot, they can't really have much to complain about anyway.
This was how it worked last time
Based on the Nations League rankings, the 16 selected teams were chosen as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[8]
- All available group winners were selected.
- If a group winner had already qualified through the UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying group stage, they were replaced by the next best-ranked team from the same league that had not also already qualified.
- If fewer than four teams from a given league had failed to qualify, then the remaining spaces for that league were allocated by the overall ranking:
- If the league had a group winner selected for the play-offs, then the next best team in the overall ranking from a lower league was selected.
- If the league had no group winner available, then the best team in the overall ranking was selected.
Theres a difference between "next best team in the group".. and "next best team in the League"
The current state of play is
1-4
Norway, Bosnia, Ukraine, Isreal
5-8
Serbia, Montenegro, Scotland, Iceland
9-12
Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Albania
13-16
Romania, Armenia, Slovenia
Now, looking across those groups, Group 4 contains Norway and Serbia, who are decent odds to qualify directly
But the Swedes tend to do well in qualifiers too
Slovenia would then be the only team that didn't qualify from the group, and are ranked 15th
No way would they jump above a higher ranked team, just because of the luck of the draw with the group they were in.
On current UEFA rankings lets imagine that teams qualify according to their rankings.. so, the top 16 qualify
Belgium, France, England, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Croatia, Wales, Sweden, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic
Along with Germany as hosts.
If the playoffs were to be allocated based on the tables this morning
The non qualified teams from Path A would be:
Austria, Hungary - so they will require teams from lower leagues to make up the play off path
The non qualified teams from Path B
Scotland, Ireland, Armenia
Isreal, Iceland, Albania
Bosnia, Montenegro, Finland, Romania
Norway, Slovenia
The play offs for this path would then be
Israel, Bosnia, Norway - and the next best unqualified team in Group B, which is currently Montenegro
Then, as there are still two unallocated play off spots in the Group A path, they would go to the next two best ranked teams in Group B, that hadn't qualified
which are, Scotland and Iceland
So currently, if things were to "freeze" today, Ireland would neither qualify via the main qualifying, and miss out on a qualifier spot by one place
Now of course, things could get worse... teams from C ranked countries could qualify directly, making even less spaces for teams in B or A paths unless they top the groups.
But to be assured of a play off.. we'd really need to be coming second
And of course, to make it all moot.. we'd qualify directly
Just for added blackguarding.. here are the seedings for the Euro's, based on todays standings
Top seeds
Denmark, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Czech Republic
Pot 2
France, Switzerland, England, Poland, Wales, Norway, Bosnia, Ukraine, Isreal, Serbia,
Pot 3
Montenegro, Scotland, Iceland, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Albania, Romania, Armenia, Slovenia
Looking at Leagues A&B of the 31 eligible teams must will be in 20 direct qualifiers. So leaving upto 11 teams to squeeze in 8 spots in A&B pathways. If we finish third we should be ok for a playoff position or on the bubble. We are currently ranked 25th of the 32 teams (24th if you exclude Germany). I forgot to add that Russia currently count inside the 32 but the reality is they will be cut from qualifying.
Inside the rock - you've a miscalculation there, it's 20 teams that qualify automatically, not 16. So if you froze it now we'd get a playoff place unless a surprising number of lower ranked teams qualified automatically.
Basically if we win both our remaining games, we have a possibility to be the best second placed team and the best second placed team is a 2nd seed for the group stages for the euros.
If we finish second in the group, we are almost guaranteed to have a playoff to fall back on - but we are still likely to get one if we finish 3rd
Meanwhile the chance of us getting a playoff place if we finish 4th is minuscule (the highest ranked 4th team would go to playoff if no League C or League D teams qualified directly. But realistically, there’s always one or two.
21 technically, including Germany as hostsQuote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
Good spot.. mea culpa.. would still love to get that second spot though, to be sure to be sure.. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
Yep, that's about the size of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
Best case scenario in September is beat Scotland and Armenia - assured second I reckon
Draw with Scotland, beat Armenia.. hope Scotland get no more than a point from the 2 Ukrainian games - second based on H2H with Scotland
Finish 3rd and hope the qualifiers fall our way to get at least a play off
Worst case.. finish last and drop down to C.. arrghhh
Edited post to update mistake earlier
On current UEFA rankings lets imagine that teams qualify according to their rankings.. so, the top 20 qualify
Belgium, France, England, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Croatia, Wales, Sweden, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Austria, Scotland, Hungary, Norway
Along with Germany as hosts, and excluding Russia who will likely still be banned by the time the draw takes place
If the playoffs were to be allocated based on the tables this morning
The non qualified teams from Path A would be:
Zero
But, this creates an anomaly that I will bring up in a minute.
The non qualified teams from Path B
Ireland, Armenia
Isreal, Iceland, Albania
Bosnia, Montenegro, Finland, Romania
Slovenia
The play offs for this path would then be
Israel, Bosnia,
But, this where the anomaly kicks in.
The next two non qualified teams in B, are Iceland and Ireland.
So,
Israel, Bosnia, Iceland, Montenegro
But there are still no teams gone up to A... so you might imagine, the next four again would go up to make up the A play off (like Ireland, N Ireland and Slovakia did last time, to compete with Iceland)
And the next four currently are..
Ireland, Albania, Finland, Romania
But..
The Isrealis and Bosnians would have a good argument for saying that the A path like this, is actually an easier pathway to qualify, than the B pathway (its full of 3/4 place teams, while the B path has 1/2nd placed teams)
So, I think Israel would be pushed up as the 1st place team in A.. and Bosnia as the first placed team in B
Making the A play off
Isreal, Albania, Finland, Romania
And the B play off
Bosnia, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro
Complicated eh :)
Something similar happened for Euro 2020 - only one League A team (Iceland) failed to qualify automatically, and they were joined by three League C teams in the League A play-off. So Hungary - who qualified - technically had an easier route than Slovakia, who had to get past a set of League B teams.
Probably there will be at least one League A team that won't make it automatically, Austria or Wales or someone like that. So the weaker performing B teams will then get bumped up to play against them as happened last time. The other disadvantage of a third place Nations League finish would be that it will probably be an away playoff semi final for us, as happened against Slovakia last time.
The argument there though, was that Hungary would have had to get past the A team, IcelandQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Yeah, would be surprised if every A team got through, especially now there are going to be some big fish swimming in the second seed pots too (England, France etc)Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
Wales without Bale are a vastly different side too.. and Switzerland seem to be in a down cycle
Yeah, it was a bit unusual too in that Iceland aren't really a League A team any more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Insidetherock
A side like Hungary would be an easy tie for a proper League A side like, I don't know, England :p
A but they were then in fairnessQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Well even then they weren't really; I know they were there in merit but they were outclassed like no other side in the league.
But yeah, while in this case Hungary had an easier draw, you're right that in general it should be the League A side who benefits, and Hungary, who didn't even win League C, should be happy to have the back door option at all
Were currently ranked 25th in UEFA in the FIFA rankings.. so we're there or thereabouts..
Been learning German a few years now.. will be gutted if we dont make it
Thats technical talk, in reality Hungary had a good team, just scraped through the play off final with 2 late goals and entered a really tough group in th euros where they acquited themselves well. They were a much better team than their C league status indicated as is also evidenced in the current league AQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
You'll get anomalies like that now and again.. weren't Serbia in the C group last time too
Is that Serbia who were a mile and a half ahead of us?Quote:
Originally Posted by Insidetherock
Hungary are not just any molly, we are looking over a 4 year period where they qualified for euro 2020 and did well in the Euros in an actual group of death, then topped their League B group and are now in League A topping the table. If Ireland had that anomaly, Kenny would be sainted for eternity. Sometimes Irish fans are ridiculous in their condescension about the merits other European teams and totally blind to where we stand in the scheme of things.
Ukraine leading Armenia 1-0, second half underway
Live updates here
https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleag...ia-vs-ukraine/
Just further shows how royally we ****ed up in Yerevan?
2-0 now. That would mathematically end any remote chances of us winning the group, though it does at least mean that a draw on Tuesday is all we need to stay up.
Although if we beat Scotland tonight and Ukraine win on Tuesday we will then surely be in pot 2 for the Euros as long as we do the business against Armenia.
5-0 Ukraine now.
So were Scotland scintillating in beating Ukraine 3-0?
Or was the 1-0 defeat in Yerevan simply one of our worst performances in recent years (which is saying a lot!)?
Or is football just a weird game?
Surely there's no way we can lose on Tuesday at least. Right?
That's Ukraine's second string as well. If Kenny leaves us short in midfield again like he did over in Armenia we can absolutely lose to them again. Provided he plays with a proper midfield three we will beat them comfortably, as we would have done in Yerevan also had he set the team up correctly that day.
Would need Norway to beat Serbia or draw with Serbia depending on their result against Sweden today. Can't see Sweden getting a result away to Serbia but we've a +2 goal difference as it stands.Quote:
Originally Posted by CSAD