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It's the Swedish home game that worries me the most. The players seem to wilt when playing at home & this has been the case for many a year. Need the LR roar to get these players over the line in September. No harm in making the players watch the Holland home game a few times before September to show how an Irish team can play like a team possessed.
It's a good opportunity for them, probably similar to the last qualifiers when they had to beat an already qualified Netherlands, who had won all their pervious games. The bookies think so and have Sweden as clear favourites to finish 2ndQuote:
Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo
But as IFK pointed out, there's a serious amount of dysfunction in the Swedish set up. They might come good, but as it stands now, looking at the upcoming games, I'd have Austria as favourites.
Austria have their tails up but I think we have a chance of a draw in Austria,
they will be confident of beating us and may well neglect to fully appreciate that we're tough nut to crack away from home.
If Germany beat Austria and the Faroes they will be on 22 points with 2 games remaining. Basically either ourselves, Sweden or Austria will have to secure two wins in our next two games to prevent it being a dead rubber for the Germans. That would leave one of the three on 17 points with two games remaining. Anything less and the maximum amount of points is reduced to 15, seven points behind Germany with two games left.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Not exactly, we could beat Sweden, and then lose to Austria, who then lose to Sweden. That leaves us all on 17 points, I just put us on top in hope more than anything elseQuote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
Might change it to yellow to highlight goal difference comes into play?Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
no, I'd assume we're all going to lose to Germany, which isn't that unreasonable.Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
it's a table, so I don't think I can post it here. PM me an email address and I'll send it onQuote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
It would probably be no harm for Germany to give the Austrians a beat of a thumping. I've given up on goal difference completely with regards Austria and Sweden, but Austria are on a bit of a high and it would be good if their confidence took a bit of a hammering before we play them a few days later.
I don't agree with Swinford at all that we have to win both games, but I do feel it's vital that we beat Sweden and Germany beat Austria.
The Germans will never give less than 100% for every game, even if they have qualified. They might rest the likes of Lahm and Schweinsteiger to test younger or less experienced players, but the new players coming in will want to put down a marker. I would agree that a draw is possible though, even if I would be more likely to veer towards a 2-0 defeat.
I think Sweden are a mediocre team. However, they are a mediocre team that knows how to get to tournaments. On paper, I think we are certainly better than them. If we have Hoolahan and McCarthy in the centre, then we can and should beat them. However, I do worry that Trap will stick with the tried and trusted (Whelan) and this conservatism makes a draw very likely. I'm not saying that Wes is the next coming of Ronnie Whelan or Liam Brady, but he's a potential match winner. Another potential match winner is James McClean. I would have concerns that Cox will be played out wide. Don't get me wrong, Cox is a half decent striker, but a winger he isn't. I'd veer towards a 1-1 draw, with Ireland perhaps taking an early lead and then sitting back, rather than trying to kill the game off with a second. In short, it will be vintage Ireland, with the fans going away feeling that this was one that got away.
I have been impressed with Austria. They seem like a country that is really on the up and they could be very good by Euro 2016 or World Cup 2018. They will be dangerous in Vienna and Trap won't take any chances with them. For this reason, I predict a 0-0 draw. I think Trap will almost certainly sacrifice Hoolahan for this match or one striker. Green is likely to come in to the team. It will be heroic at times, but we'll be frustrated at things being out of our own hands.
Kazakhstan could be an interesting player in the rest of the group. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that they draw with the Swedes. It is also conceivable that with all the teams locked on equal points, we might need to knock in 5 or 6 (or 7 or 8!!) past them to get second. I can't see us beating them by more than 3 goals, so this would be a nightmare scenario.
Save yourself the worry Bungle, just accept that it's going to happen unless Whelan picks up a knock.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bungle
Isn't it the same every campaign under Trap?
"If we can just beat Sweden / Austria / Bulgaria / Slovakia or whoever…"
The reality is that we have failed miserably to do so - and dating back to Kerr too. It's not just Trap's fault, although I think Trap has his own unique contribution topoor home results. We nearly snuck a late winner against Slovakia and an undeserved late winner against Bulgaria, but the away performances were more convincing and in fairness to Trap, our away form is probably our best ever.
AB is probably right to expect 2 points (max!), but simple randomness should deliver at least one good home or away win per decade.
We have got 8 goals to make up on them (+10 vs +2) which will be a tall order, we both have Germany anyway so in a sense the gd in those matches will probably be similar. There is the game in Vienna where goal difference will in effect count double, and they have Faeroes (a) on the last day whereas we have Kazakhstan (h), we might outscore them in those last day matches but I don't think we can make up 8 goals unless we have a big win in Vienna.Quote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
A flurry of yellows and / or reds in the Germany game would be ideal. The following will all be suspended for the Austria v Ireland match if they get booked in Germany v Austria match
M Janko
M Harnik
S Prödl
C Fuchs
P Hosiner
D Alaba
A Dragovic
(Kavlak and Baumgartlinger have already served a game ban for 2 yellows)
Any of Alaba, Harnik and Janko (all of whom are good players and have scored a few so far in these qualifiers) would be a huge bonus for us. In terms of Irish players, if the following get booked vs Sweden they will miss the Vienna match:
D O'Dea
A McGeady
P Green
S Coleman
J O'Shea
W Hoolahan
James McCarthy and Shane Long have already been suspended for getting 2 yellow cards, the next yellow card bans for them will be when they reach 4, so even if they get a yellow in the Sweden game they wont miss the Vienna match.
hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....Quote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.
We need some statistician to the thread to prove how we are disproving this theory. All things being equal normally, we should hope to beat Sweden and lose to Austria.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
But be surprised (and disappointed) if that happens, even if it would give us an extra point. As we'd all have 17, but we'd have the worst goal difference probably.
The start of September is probably too early to drop somebody for not getting regular football. There'll only be two or three PL games played at that stage.Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
I'd agree with DeLorean. Sparky will probably drop Whelan at the start of next season, especially if he can keep Nzonzi. His early hints were that Nzonzi and Adam would be his preferred central midfield partnership, but I can't see Trap dropping Whelan after just a couple of games of next season. It does give hope for the future though. We have better players than Glenn, or at least, players who are better on a consistent basis. Whelan often looks alright in the Stoke team, but he's surrounded by muscular giants, who like the ball lumped to them, which I think suits his style of play better than having someone small who prefers the ball accurately in to feet.Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
The end of this piece would depress ye after all we can take from these few games - play hoolahan, with 2 fast wingers.
http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-29341366.html
I wonder has Stephen Quinn leapt up the standings? Trap has thrown the likes of Sammon, Sledge and Best in at the deep end in the past.
Can Quinn play wide left?
I know Trap is set in his ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if he left Coleman wide right with McShane or Kelly behind him. I'd take that over Cox or Keogh wide right any day of the week.
I wouldn't rule out the following though I would categorically prefer Hoolahan and McCarthy. McClean as an impact sub. I think Trap prefers McShane to Kelly.
-------Forde------
Kelly (McShane)-O'Shea-Sledge-Wilson
Coleman-Whelan-McCarthy-Quinn
-----Keane--Long----
When are you thinking this for Stutts? What I mean is, if Dunne gets himself sorted for the coming season out he will dislodge SSL surely ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
What does Whelan not have to do to get dropped?
With so many matches to go the odds of an unlikely result are pretty high.
Hmmmm,Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
tempting isn't it?
Yep it does alright, we are due an away with sometime soon according to all the experts on here. Germany are in trouble!Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bungle
I wasn't impressed with Austria at all really in Lansdowne. We gifted them an opener and then sat back and allowed them to play in the second half, and if we'd made a positive sub I think we'd have pushed on and scored a third and we'd all be here saying how close we are to being home and hosed. Decent side but a couple of injuries or suspensions and they'd be even more ordinary. I actually am happy with our strength in depth these days in most positions.
Austria stunk the place out at their Euros a few years ago so I hope there's no idea of a "Fortress Ernst Happoel" (or whatever the stadium is called) and we can go there and do a job on them.
Crafty, I'm assuming Dunne isn't match fit. If he gets a club and plays, then yes. I suppose I was looking for comment on the other selections, especially Coleman and Quinn.
Tricky, aren't the odds of an unlikely result always high?
We enjoy a common bond with them so. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Yard of Pace
Well, Id like Coleman there if we had a a bit more quality available behind him. I didn't think Quinn shone like some seem to have but you are correct in saying he will do no worse than Championship centre forwards we have been deploying out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
How about 5-3-2 with Coleman & McClean full of running with their young L.O.I. legs, Josh & SSL either side of Dunne with McCarthy/Hoolalan/? feeding Long & Keane.
Would you hand over a few bob to watch that side? And who would you put in the ?
I'd have my doubts about how many of our players would be tactically aware enough to play a 532 at a high level.
I'd have more doubts about our manager being willing to crawl over hot coals back to Italy rather than try it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
But, do you really think guys who have made it a such a good level of the game would find this way beyond them? And, even if it wasn't a regular thing, and I'm not suggesting it should be, just an option, would you deem it worth 45 in a friendly for a look? I think it would utilize the best of Coleman / McLean. My doubts would be the three boyos at the back.
I don't think they'd find it way beyond them but it would certainly put them outside of their comfort zone and it would take plenty of practice to get right, and I'm not sure we have the time to invest in it. It's different for the Italians where it is a common formation or even British sides of the past 25 years. If you're looking at getting the best out of the players at your disposal, I think you have to look at formations that play to their strengths.
OK, a fair point. Do you think 442 is the one best suited to those present strengths?Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
Some variation of it, yeah. The current formation where Robbie plays between the lines as an auxilary midfielder is probably the best we can do at the moment, but it won't work properly unless we bring through midfielders who can attack, defend and hold possession. I think it's the philosophy rather than the formation that's holding us back. I think we also need to look at the idea of providing a backup for Keane with somebody can play in that Keane role, probably Hoolahan, possibly Cox. Our strikers outside of Keane aren't good enough for us to play a proper 451/433.
Think Long can play up top on his own.
Has the guile now, just not Robbie's finishing.
Unfortunately a striker who can't finish is of limited use, especially when you don't have many goals from midfield.
Might midfielders be more likely to score if they can get into advanced positions more regularly though? Our 442 puts them on the back foot more often than not.
I also don't wholly agree that you need a "line leader" up top. Jon Dahl Tomassen played that role to great effect for Denmark, albeit flanked by Rommedahl and Lovenkrands, a type of player we don't have.
I see Charlie's point but I think I posted a while back some stats over the last few campaigns showing that our strikers have scored very few goals from open play, the point being that we're hardly reliant on our forwards. I think we have more to gain than to lose by going 451 - certainly in some situations - and it's a shame we haven't tried it when we've had a chance to experiment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy
27 next birthday I think. Leaves an increasingly highlighted number of goal chances after him, although recent improvement too as you say.
If Brady starts off well with Hull in the PL early on then hopefully he will be back in contention for a place on the wing.
I like Coleman on the wing, just a shame the only players who can play at FB to allow the change is Kelly & McShane. Maybe O'Shea could go back to RB if Dunne gets fit.
The Villa youngsters coming through the ranks will also get a bit of game time next season, obviously too early to have an impact in the WC qualifiers but getting called up for squads in 2014 not out of the question.
Depend on how what method you are using to calculate the odds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
If you are using percentages 90% is high but if you use fraction odds 9-1 is high.
Therefore by making a sufficiently vague statement i can claim to be have been right whatever happens :)
Me too, we don't have 5 goalkeepers in the squad for starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
I would have liked to have seen it tried against Spain although the chance of us passing it about like Spain seem rather remote to say the least.
Spain look like they have been practising it, just the sort of underhand thing the Spanish would do!!
I would have also liked to have seen Paddy Madden given a run out. Would any of our strikers have out scored him in League 1?
I doubt it.
Anyhow Trap will seek to grind out results in the usual manner come what may.
yes they played some amazing stuff the last time they were at the world cup....:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Heh, he has a point...