Premier & First Division Predictions - 2024

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Originally Posted by joey B

The decision to let Pat Hoban go might have been one of the worst ever in the LOI ….

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According to Hoban, O'Donnell just told him he wasn’t wanted anymore. As a footballing decision that makes no sense, so I can only assume it was because O'Donnell wanted to get rid of Hoban in order to use his wage to bring in a few other players rather than using one big wage on one player. Monumentally bad judgement by O'Donnell who should really have opted for quality over quantity given his previous track record of signing duds from the Scottish lower leagues, particularly up front

There is more to this old story, including agents and their desire to see their player move and get a cut. A manger is backed in to a corner if any player makes demands with an 'or else' even if those demands would have likely been met until demands were made. A player may not have felt the need to make any demand unless advisors sowed some doubt based on talk of managing player loads better to prevent another injury crisis at the end of the season of injury after injury (most of which happened away from home!!!). Throw in mates being in the ear, moving the goalposts with new demands, heads turned by additional money, a player convinced a league title was practically a formality with a top goal scorer and with sizable bonuses - player moves. Maybe O'Donnell should have swallowed pride and just said yes you will play every minute of the season and told every member of the squad who landed in his office the same after.

I was hoping someone would resurrect this thread. In general, Sligo Rovers, Galway and Waterford did better than predicted and Dundalk and Bohs were the opposite.
Shout of the year from Martinho for predicting Dundalk would go down although I notice that was a few weeks into the season!

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Originally Posted by joey B

The decision to let Pat Hoban go might have been one of the worst ever in the LOI ….

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A big row between himself, O Donnell and Gartland is meant to be the reason he was let go

I'd agree though the stupidest decision the club made in a long time (and their has been many)

Was this the battle of the boardroom?

Finish v pre season predictions, The wisdom of the Foot crowd not that wise, only Pats in predicted position, Shams next closest at -1 place out, biggest under-performers Dundalk, biggest over-performers Sligo Rovers.

	Actual	Predicted	Diff
1	Shels	Shams 1.07	+3
2	Shamrock	Derry 2.43	-1
3	Pats	Pats 2.60	=
4	Derry	Shels 4.17	-2
5	Galway	Bohs 5.90	+3
6	Rovers	Dundalk 6.20	+4
7	Waterford	Drogs 7.20	-2
8	Bohs	Galway 7.60	-3
9	Drogs	Waterford 8.80	-2
10	Dundalk	Rovers 9.03	-4

2025 PD predictions should be fun, someone will obviously finish 10th and could be a wide net.

Paddy Power have 5 clubs priced on same odds at 33/1 to win the league, never seen that before in the PD, Galway / Waterford / Cork C / Sligo / Drogs, all on same price meaning all are in running for relegation also, Bohs are above this group at 28/1 which is a surprise as I'd have a good few above them in 2025 and they could well end up fighting to avoid the play off/

Take your pick from any in bold in my view for last spot, but could be any of this group if they get off to a bad start.

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Finish v pre season predictions, The wisdom of the Foot crowd not that wise, only Pats in predicted position, Shams next closest at -1 place out, biggest under-performers Dundalk, biggest over-performers Sligo Rovers.

	Actual	Predicted	Diff
1	Shels	Shams 1.07	+3
2	Shamrock	Derry 2.43	-1
3	Pats	Pats 2.60	=
4	Derry	Shels 4.17	-2
5	Galway	Bohs 5.90	+3
6	Rovers	Dundalk 6.20	+4
7	Waterford	Drogs 7.20	-2
8	Bohs	Galway 7.60	-3
9	Drogs	Waterford 8.80	-2
10	Dundalk	Rovers 9.03	-4

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Is it ridiculously too much bother to look at other years for a summary of whether we were always well wide of the mark, this season was actually mad or whether LoI really is a bookies dream league. 2025 will be a tougher one again with Pats probably already the foot.ie favourites and you would never say never for the champions to just keep out of the bottom 3!

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Originally Posted by oriel

2025 PD predictions should be fun, someone will obviously finish 10th and could be a wide net.

Paddy Power have 5 clubs priced on same odds at 33/1 to win the league, never seen that before in the PD, Galway / Waterford / Cork C / Sligo / Drogs, all on same price meaning all are in running for relegation also, Bohs are above this group at 28/1 which is a surprise as I'd have a good few above them in 2025 and they could well end up fighting to avoid the play off/

Take your pick from any in bold in my view for last spot, but could be any of this group if they get off to a bad start.

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Never seen it priced this early before.

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Originally Posted by outspoken

Never seen it priced this early before.

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Probably a sign of the times. In years gone by I recall plenty of clubs with less than a handful of players signed up at this stage of December, where as nowadays with multi year contracts and early renewals a lot of clubs have a lot of business already done on their squads for next season so earlier odds are available

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Originally Posted by outspoken

Never seen it priced this early before.

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Originally Posted by 2 Year Contract

Probably a sign of the times. In years gone by I recall plenty of clubs with less than a handful of players signed up at this stage of December, where as nowadays with multi year contracts and early renewals a lot of clubs have a lot of business already done on their squads for next season so earlier odds are available

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Think Bar One Bookmakers have priced it this early, every since that lad Kieran Burke from between the stripes and Longford started working for them a few years back

I would bet (E.W. 2 places 1/2 the odds) though to actually trade it I would need a bigger over the doors being so early.

Pats	9/4
Shels	3/1
Shams	3/1
Derry	5/1
Bohs	40/1
Rovers	40/1
Galway	40/1
Drogs	40/1
Cork	50/1
Waterord	50/1

Bar One are not up yet, I assume PP went up as a result of added interest in the league, not that these non tradable long term markets get a lot of interest particularly at the smaller prices.

https://x.com/BarOneRacing/status/18...601591/photo/1

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

I would bet (E.W. 2 places 1/2 the odds) though to actually trade it I would need a bigger over the doors being so early.

Pats	9/4
Shels	3/1
Shams	3/1
Derry	5/1
Bohs	40/1
Rovers	40/1
Galway	40/1
Drogs	40/1
Cork	50/1
Waterord	50/1

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Next season really looks like a great opportunity for Pats (Clearly bound to go tits up so ;)) Derry and probably Rovers too seem to have fairly big rebuilding jobs on, and it’s hard to see Shels repeating the feat next year. Of course a lot will depend on how well Rovers recruit, and how quickly signings will bed in. Their run in Europe going into the new year probably won’t help them get off to a good start either.

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Originally Posted by outspoken

https://x.com/BarOneRacing/status/18...601591/photo/1

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FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.

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Originally Posted by oriel

FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.

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From what I hear, a lot of the Drogheda players wanted extra money this year, and Drogheda seem happy to pay more for the same players.

Those same players still only finished 9th, and a long way off from getting out of the playoff. They won the FAI cup , and fair play to them, but the only two Premier teams they beat both collapsed spectaculary in both games. That's not to take away winning the cup... But more there are signs there that they overachieved last year.

Losing Ahui would be a massive blow, as well as DJT and Perriot. That is suddenly a spine of the team that needs replacing.

Very early in the transfer window for sure though.

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Originally Posted by oriel

FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.

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The FAI Cup winners could be relegated. Relegated Dundalk then could actually have a right go at the FAI Cup, where Galway and Cork have fallen short. Dundalk should have a comfortable gap in the First Division by July.
One or two clubs in the playoff places could also focus on a cup run, without much impact on their playoff push.

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Originally Posted by Kiki Balboa

From what I hear, a lot of the Drogheda players wanted extra money this year, and Drogheda seem happy to pay more for the same players.

Those same players still only finished 9th, and a long way off from getting out of the playoff. They won the FAI cup , and fair play to them, but the only two Premier teams they beat both collapsed spectaculary in both games. That's not to take away winning the cup... But more there are signs there that they overachieved last year.

Losing Ahui would be a massive blow, as well as DJT and Perriot. That is suddenly a spine of the team that needs replacing.

Very early in the transfer window for sure though.

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Drogs abs deserved to win the cup, but has to been one of the easiest routes ever to the final, soon to be relegated and worst team in PD Dundalk, then 1 NL club, followed by 2 FD sides, and all bar one of these games were at home !

On 2025 PD, you get feeling series 1 will be key for any club hoping to stay off the bottom or bottom 2.

Atm i'd have them above Cork and Sligo could be dragged into it but it could be a real slog unless they can find a few gems in uk again